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page 46 of 142 RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 Set against a global population increase of 8% in the 1990-1995 period, global total rice production increased 6%, while the global harvested area increased by 1.5%, meaning an average productivity (production per unit of harvested area) increase of about 4%. Methane emissions from rice cultivation increased by 1.5%, at least when no shift to more wetland rice cultivation nor to more fertiliser use had taken place. At present, the information available is not sufficient to evaluate the last-named influences. Rice cultivation is concentrated in India and China, which together account for half of the global rice production. In India, population, rice production and productivity has increased by 10% in the last five years. In China the population has increased by 6%, while the production has decreased by 2% and productivity has increased by 5%. This is due to the 7% decrease in the harvested area in the last five years. ,QGH[ &KLQD 86$ )RPHU6RYHW8QLRQ ,QGLD :RUOG :RUOGH[FO)68(DVWHUQ(XURSH Source: FAO, 1997 )LJ,QGLFDWRUIRU1 2WUHQGVLQJOREDOFRQVXPSWLRQRIQLWURJHQIHUWLOLVHUV Beef cattle account for about half of the global total of CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from cattle breeding. In Fig. 2.6 a number of trend indicators for the five most important countries are shown for emissions from beef cattle for the 1990-1995 period. In this period meat production has decreased by 9% globally (compared with an 8% increase of population), largely due to a decrease in meat production by the former USSR and Germany (one-third), while the cattle stock increase was 2%. Productivity expressed as meat production per cattle head in stock differs substantially between countries: in North America, Europe and the former USSR it is three times as high as in Latin American countries. This large difference in ‘cattle stock management’ also causes large differences in emissions per cow in stock. The trend in meat production and the size of the cattle stock in the last five years differs considerably between countries. No conclusion can be drawn about there being a structural decoupling of emissions from meat production. The use of nitrogen fertilisers decreased by 5% in the 1990-1994 period. This is the result of the following three trends: ú a great increase in fertiliser use in developing countries, e.g. by 19% in India; ú a dramatic decrease in fertiliser use in the former USSR (2/3); ú a stabilisation of fertiliser use in OECD countries as a whole, but with highly different trends in individual countries, e.g. +13% in USA and Canada, -7% in France and the UK, and constant use in Germany and Spain. Without the sharp negative trend in the former USSR, total global fertiliser consumption would have increased by 5%, instead of decreasing by 5%, which has actually occurred. N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils may be assumed to have shown a similar trend.
RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 page 47 of 142 7UHQGUHSRUWRQJOREDOHPLVVLRQVRIR]RQHGHSOHWLQJ FRPSRXQGV International policy for the protection of the ozone layer was established through the 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO of 1987 and the subsequent $PHQGPHQWVRI/RQGRQ, 1990, and &RSHQKDJHQ, 1992. Sixtyfive countries have now ratified the &RSHQKDJHQ$PHQGPHQW including the largest industrialised ones. According to this &RSHQKDJHQ $PHQGPHQW countries have to phase out the production and consumption of CFCs by 1996. Other countries, in particular developing countries with a relatively small CFC use per capita, have to phase out production and use by 2005. International funds are available for financing projects in developing countries for preventing further expansion of the use of CFCs. In 1994 the countries of the European Union agreed to phase out the use of CFCs and carbon tetrachloride by 1995 (EEA, 1999). As a result of these measures world-wide production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances have been reduced substantially during the last years. In 1995, consumption dropped to almost zero in industrialised countries (including the former USSR), in compliance with the agreements. From a policy point of view, the issue has been sufficiently dealt with. Several factors, as outlined below, contributed to the success of the 0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO and $PHQGPHQWV: ú technical alternatives are available for substituting CFCs at acceptable costs: HCFCs, HFCs, other processes without halocarbons; ú damage to the ozone layer has now become particularly evident, partly because of the relatively direct relationship between cause and effect: i.e. one major group of harmful substances and one major impact; ú the 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO contains well-defined flexible implementation schemes and evaluation procedures. The most important factors now determining the success of international policy are found in the sustaining sphere, e.g. compliance with international agreements, resistance to smuggling and illegal production of CFCs, and implementation of recycling or destruction of CFCs emitted from existing applications. In 1995, the respective stocks of CFC-11 and 12 at global level contained in appliances such as refrigerators was 8 and 3 times the amount actually emitted in 1995. This was 8 times the amount actually emitted for halon-1211and 25 times for halon-1301. Thus, also after the phase-out of production and consumption, emissions to the atmosphere of substances contained in existing applications will continue for a number of years. The use of methyl bromide in developing countries is also an important factor; in industrialised countries this has already been controlled. The EU has a 25% reduction target for methyl bromide in 1998 compared to the 1991 level (EEA, 1999). HCFCs and HFCs are used as substitutes for CFCs. In the 0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO and $PHQGPHQWV the consumption of HCFCs is still allowed for a number of years. As a result, the production of HCFCs has recently substantially increased. Also the ODPs of HCFCs are only about 5% of that of CFCs. Therefore the impact of HCFCs on the ozone layer is currently very small. However, since there are now hardly any measures taken in developing countries to reduce the consumption of these substances, in the future HCFCs could contribute to ozone depletion in non-negligible amounts in the future. While HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, they are potent greenhouse gases. 7UHQGVLQSURGXFWLRQDQGFRQVXPSWLRQ Total global reported production of CFC-11 and CFC-12 has decreased in 1995 by 46% and 38%, respectively, compared to 1994. In 1995, total reported production was 15% of the 1986 level. However, the consumption of HCFCs increased in 1995 relative to 1994, in particular for HCFC-141b at 39%. The consumption of CFC-22, currently the most widely used HCFC, increased by 2%. The consumption of HFC-134a increased in 1995 by 46% (AFEAS, 1997). The estimated production of so-called non-reporting countries has been relatively constant since 1986. As illustrated in Fig. 2.8, the consumption of CFCs in industrialised countries dropped to almost zero in 1994. In most of the developing countries, which will have no restrictions on their consumption for ten more years, the
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