RIVM report xxxxxx xxx

page 42 of 142 RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051
Global emissions of the direct greenhouse gases CO 2 ,CH 4 and N 2 O have increased by 16% since
1970. The economic decline in the former USSR and Eastern European countries brought the total
global CO 2 emissions to an almost constant level in the 1990-1995 period; however, in 1996 they
increased by 3%. The 4% decrease in CO 2 emissions from the former USSR in 1996 seems to be the
lowest level in the decline. In 1995 and 1996 the emissions in the Eastern European countries were
already increasing again by a few per cent annually. In the rest of the world, CO 2 emissions increased
by 15% compared to 1990, in particular, in developing countries (+30%).
In the European Union, USA, Canada and Japan, CO 2 emissions increased in 1996 by 2, 3, 1 and
2%, respectively. Total growth in these countries since 1990 has been 1, 6, 9 and 13%, respectively.
While fossil fuel consumption increased by 4%, the minor increase in the EU in the last six years was
mainly due to a shift in the fossil-fuel mix from coal to gas. The share of coal decreased from 27% to
20%, while that of gas increased from 20% to 26%. Similar large shifts did not occur in other OECD
countries.
Global emissions of direct greenhouse gases decreased by 7% since 1990 mainly due to the sharp
decrease in CFC emissions since 1988. HFC emissions are, however, increasing fast and may start to
contribute significantly to total trends from 2000 onwards, in particular, in OECD countries. In 1995,
for example, the consumption of HFC-134a increased by 45%. At present, no control policies exist
for HFCs at the international level.
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In the 1990-1995 period, global GDP increased by about 9%, while global CO 2 emissions from fossilfuel
use increased by 2%. This partial ‘decoupling’ was caused by a shift of the fossil-fuel mix to
more gas and (a bit) less coal, in particular in OECD countries (e.g. in the EU and the USA, but not in
Japan), as well as a general trend towards a less energy-intensive economy. In the EU the share of
coal decreased from 27% to 21%. Between 1990 and 1995, the GDP of the EU-15 increased by 6%,
fossil fuel use increased by 1%, while CO2 emissions decreased by 2%, mainly due to a decrease in
coal consumption in Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy. In the USA and Australia, the increase
in CO2 emissions was about half of the increase in GDP.
Other parts of the world with a relatively low GDP growth, such as Japan, Canada, Middle East
(or even a drop in GDP, as in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and Africa), do not show a
partial ‘decoupling’ but rather the opposite. This also applies to Latin America. In Eastern Europe the
CO2 trend is -12% vs. a GDP trend of -6%; in the former USSR, CO 2 emissions dropped less (-35%)
than GDP (-40%).
In China CO 2 emissions increased by about 23%, while GDP increased almost 70%. In other Asian
countries, including the so-called ‘economic tigers’, the increase in CO 2 emissions is similar to the
development of GDP. It should be noted, though, that due to the quality and limited comparability of
available statistics, trends analyses particularly for GDP, but also for CO 2 , are less reliable for
countries like the former USSR and China than for most others.
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Per capita emissions of CO 2 for countries within the European Union are 2 to 3 times as high as the
global average. In 1990 the EU average was about 20% lower than for the Netherlands, whereas the
OECD average was about 6% higher. Per capita emissions are the highest in the USA. In 1990 per
capita emissions in the former USSR were comparable with the OECD average and stood at 35%
above the EU average (Fig. 2.3).