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page 36 of 142 RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 7DEOH6SDWLDOFRPSDULVRQ('*$59DOODQWKURSRJHQLFHPLVVLRQVEHORZNPDQG*(,$9HPLVVLRQV RI12 [ DQG62 JOREDODQGUHJLRQDO0DS&URVV&RUUHODWLRQ0&&DQGFRPSDULVRQZLWK&2 'LIIHUHQFHVZLWK &2 ODUJHUWKDQDUHSULQWHGLQEROG Area Co-ordinates NO x SO 2 CO 2 Diff. NO x -CO 2 Diff. SO 2 -CO 2 :RUOG o.w. North America -170,23,-50,75 0.86 0.85 0.93 -0.06 -0.08 Europe -12,34,32,75 0.81 0.66 0.87 -0.05 -0.21 o.w. Western Europe -12,34,18,75 0.85 0.68 0.86 -0.01 -0.18 o.w. Eastern Europe 13,40,32,75 0.52 0.69 0.91 -0.22 Latin America -120,-60,-30,30 0.89 0.63 0.92 -0.03 -0.29 Africa -20,-40,55,38 0.43 0.38 0.82 Middle East 32,10,64,40 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.04 0.01 Former USSR 19,35,179,85 0.58 0.29 0.92 India-China region 60,5,145,55 0.72 0.25 0.91 -0.19 Oceania 90,-50,179,8 0.81 0.43 0.73 0.07 100% 80% 60% 66,UHODWLYHIRUSRSXODWLRQDQG&2 Number of cells Population CO2 40% 20% 0% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Difference limit (%) 6LP SOH6LP LODULW\,QGH[UHODWLYHIRU12 1XPEHURIFHOOV ' LIIHUHQF HOLP LW 'DVKHGOLQHH[FOXGLQJODUJHVFDOHELRPDVVEXUQLQJDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVKLSSLQJ 6 LP S OH 6 LP LOD ULW\,Q G H [ UH OD WLY H IR U6 2 1XPEHURIFHOOV ' LIIH UH Q F H OLP LW 'DVKHGOLQHH[FOXGLQJODUJHVFDOHELRPDVVEXUQLQJDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVKLSSLQJ )LJ)UDFWLRQRIFHOOVEHORZDVSHFLILFFXWRIIRIWKH6LPSOH6LPLODULW\,QGH[66,UHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHSHU JULGFHOODIRUSRSXODWLRQ/RJDQ*,66DQG&2 ('*$5*(,$EIRU12[('*$5*(,$F IRU62 ('*$5*(,$
RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 page 37 of 142 8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV It has been acknowledged, that providing improved uncertainty estimates is an urgent need for models and policy applications, but also that it is hard to achieve on the short term other than through collective expert judgement. Within the IPCC Inventory Programme a special activity has recently been started aiming at providing default values and a better framework for estimating and reporting of uncertainties. A similar activity has started within GEIA, aiming at the same results at country level as well as on grid level, but for a more extended group of compounds and in a more scientific setting. Comparisons of different datasets, e.g. as done with the EDGAR data, may be an important input to this process. Therefore, it was decided by the EDGAR team that it was at present not feasible to go beyond the uncertainty tables compiled for Version 2.0 (see Table 1.13 and 1.14). However, in addition some apparent conclusions on uncertainty can be drawn from the comparison of V2.0 with other datasets as part of the validation and check for urgent adaptations. For more detailed info on uncertainty in specific inventories we refer to the papers on N 2 O, NH 3 and CO (Bouwman HWDO 1995, 1997; Olivier HWDO, 1999) and conclusions on validation in Section 1.2). For the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 a similar table has been compiled (see Table 1.15). To illustrate the usefulness of the uncertainty indications presented here, we translated for methane the qualifications into the percentage ranges mentioned in the notes of these tables. Next, we compared the results with the uncertainty estimates used by IPCC Working Group I for the preparation of the Third Assessment Report (Fig. 1.6). The overall picture is rather similar, which shows that this simple approach and interpretation of uncertainty ranges is still quite useful for application at global levels. 7DEOH,QGLFDWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQW\HVWLPDWHIRUJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV6RXUFH2OLYLHUHWDOD Main source Sub-category Activity Emission factors Total emissions data CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Fossil fuel use Fossil fuel combustion S S M M S M M Fossil fuel production S M M - M M - Biofuel Biofuel combustion L S M L L L L Industry/ Iron & steel production S - S - S - solvent use Non-ferro production S - S - - S - Chemicals production S - S L - S M Cement production S S - - S - - Solvent use M - - - - - - Miscellaneous V - - - - - - Landuse/ Agriculture S - L L - L L waste treatment Animals (excreta; S - M L - M L ruminants) Biomass burning L S M L L L L Landfills L - M - - L - Agricultural waste burning L - L L - L L Uncontrolled waste L - - - - - - burning Natural sources Natural soils M - L L - L L Grasslands M - M L - M L Natural vegetation M - M - - M - Oceans/wetlands M - L L - L L Lightning S - - - - - - CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O All sources - - - - S M L Notes: Expert judgement of uncertainty ranges, which were assigned with the following classification in terms of order of magnitude of the uncertainty in mind: S = small (10%); M = medium (50%); L = large (100%); V = very large (>100%). ‘-‘ Indicates that the compound is not applicable for this source or that emissions are negligible.
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