RIVM report xxxxxx xxx

RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 page 35 of 142
indicators are also applied to the population maps themselves. Obviously, one may not expect better
comparison of emissions maps than the underlying population maps show.
Summary results on GLIIHUHQFHVLQ LQGLYLGXDOFHOOYDOXHV are presented in Fig. 1.4 showing Simple
Similarity Indices (SSI). Whereas for population 78% of the cells of the EDGAR map (from Logan)
has a difference of less than 100% from the GEIA map (from NASA-GISS), for the CO 2 maps of
EDGAR and GEIA this is 72% (Fig. 1.1.a). For NO x and SO 2 , the fraction of the map cells with less
than 100% difference is 92% and 85%, respectively. Fig. 1.4.b and 1.4.c also shows the effect of
including large-scale biomass burning and international shipping in the EDGAR maps of NO x and
SO 2 (which is only partly included in the GEIA maps).
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Area Co-ordinates CO 2 Population Difference
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of which:
North America -170,23,-50,75 0.93 0.93 -0.01
Europe -12,34,32,75 0.87 0.85 0.01
o.w. Western -12,34,18,75 0.86 0.84 0.02
o.w. Eastern 13,40,32,75 0.91 0.87 0.04
Latin America -120,-60,-30,30 0.92 0.97 -0.05
Africa -20,-40,55,38 0.82 0.88 -0.06
Middle East 32,10,64,40 0.78 0.87 -0.09
Former USSR 19,35,179,85 0.92 0.92 0.00
India-China region 60,5,145,55 0.91 0.93 -0.02
Oceania 90,-50,179,8 0.73 0.70 0.03
Next, we looked into the VLPLODULW\RIWKHVKDSHRIWKHPDSV using the Map Cross-Correlation (MCC),
both globally and per region. The Arc-Info Correlation Coefficient is 0.91 for the population maps
and 0.89 for the CO 2 maps. From the results summarized in Table 1.11, it can be concluded that the
shapes of CO 2 maps are pretty similar in North and Latin America, the former USSR and the India-
China region; for these regions the MCC of the population maps is also above average. Population
maps are rather different for Europe, in particular in Western Europe, and for Oceania, Middle East
and Africa. This causes the MCC for CO 2 also to be below average for these regions (except for
Eastern Europe). Further analysis showed that the regional figures are not influenced by large water
areas.
The same analysis was made for NO x and SO 2 (Table 1.12). The Arc-Info Correlation Coefficient
is 0.77 and 0.49 for the NO x and SO 2 maps, respectively. To put these into perspective these figures
can be compared to the figure of about 0.90 for the CO 2 maps, which lead to the conclusion that the
maps of SO 2 show much more differences in spatial patterns than the other two compounds. For NO x ,
the shapes are pretty similar in North and Latin America, Middle East, Europe and Oceania. For these
regions the MCC of the SO 2 maps is also above average, although much lower for the latter three. For
NO x , maps are rather different for Africa, Eastern Europe, and the former USSR (MCC < 0.6). For
SO 2 , maps are rather different for the India-China region, former USSR, Africa and Oceania (MCC <
0.5), which causes the overall MCC to be 0.5. Regional MCC for NO x are rather close to the CO2
values, except for Eastern Europe, the former USSR and Africa. This suggests, that for these three
regions differences are not so much caused by activity data for energy, but rather in emission factors
for energy or in large differences for other sources (e.g. biomass burning and AWB). It appears that
only NO x in Africa is substantially influenced by biomass burning and/or agricultural waste burning
(the MCC increases from 0.43 to 0.64 when excluding these sources).