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page 126 of 142 RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 calculation methods. By first validating and then calibrating European emissions to the CORINAIR'90 inventory EDGAR will achieve comparable regional emissions for global and continental atmospheric models, and will be consistent with emission figures used for continental air pollution issues such as acidification. Another way of validating the data is by comparison with independently developed inventories of the Global Emission Inventory Activity (GEIA) project. A number of GEIA inventories are compilations of databases produced elsewhere, while EDGAR uses activity levels and emission factors whenever possible. Differences between the two approaches will highlight uncertainties in specific regions of the world, and may lead to corrections in the EDGAR and/or GEIA approach. Another method of validation is to investigate sources and sinks by atmospheric modelling using a forward or inverse modelling approach. Both types require good a- priori emission estimates of all sources. Furthermore, for model application as well as for policy development, there is a need to assess (roughly) the uncertainties in emissions inventories: to determine the uncertainty in calculated concentrations, in regional or sectoral contributions to global emissions and in emission scenarios as well as in the effectiveness of policy options. There is controversy about the relative importance of sources such as landfills, wet rice fields and natural wetlands in the global CH4 budget; the sources in the N2O budget are even more uncertain. For other (indirect) greenhouse gases uncertainties are also quite large, in particular for emissions in developing countries. Each global inventory has its specific uncertainty, related to the quality of data or to the method of extrapolation. $0RQLWRULQJDQGLQWHJUDWLRQ Monitoring of emission trends, which is important for science and policy applications, is done by (a) annually estimating the development of key sources of direct GHGs based on new data, and (b) periodically updating the inventories by using recent activity level data, national GHG emission estimates, NRP results and new emission calculation methodologies. The results will be used for an evaluation of the key regions/countries, sectors and compounds which determine the global growth of GHG emissions. Also, national emission inventories prepared for the FCCC and the UNEP secretariat to the Montreal Protocol may be used, but these do not cover all countries nor do they cover all sources and gases. Such an analysis will identify areas where reduction policies appear to be most effective and whether improved calculation methodologies lead to a shift in policy planning with respect to key regions and key source categories. Ad hoc advice to the government, IPCC/FCCC or GEIA on emissions, calculation methodology and the effectiveness of reduction options is also possible, using the analytical structure of EDGAR as a bridge between science and policy makers. Results of NRP 1 and 2 will yield new insights for a number of emission source categories. However, to determine the applicability for emission factors, time profiles and temporal distributions RQ D JOREDOVFDOH is often not straightforward. Results of NRP may help to evaluate the state of knowledge in specific fields. In general, the dissemination of cross sections of (updated) emissions data to other NRP projects will enlarge the integration within the NRP and thus enhance the comparability of NRP results. Results from EDGAR will be provided to the IMAGE 2 model to improve and its emission calculation module. Standard data of current inventories are available to other (NRP) projects; updates of inventories will be provided to GEIA. $,PSURYHPHQWDQGH[WHQVLRQRIWKH('*$5GDWDEDVHDQGLWVVRIWZDUH Remarks of NRP participants and the results of the validation of EDGAR as developed in NRP 1 showed an apparent need for some additions to improve the applicability for policy and scientific purposes: - 7HPSRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ of the annual data. Many atmospheric models have specific requirements in terms of a temporal distribution of the annual emissions data, e.g. the seasonally or monthly variation within a calendar year. In other words, there is a need for compilation of time profiles suitable for application in conjunction of the annual sectoral emission files extracted from EDGAR.
RIVM report 773301 001 / NRP report 410200 051 page 127 of 142 - ([WHQVLRQZLWKRWKHUFRPSRXQGV (or NMVOC compound groups), e.g. ammonia and aerosols: - A global inventory of DPPRQLD (NH 3 ) will enable improved estimates of atmospheric N2O formation from NH3 and of deposition of NH3 and effects on N 2 O formation in soils. This is related to and will affect the break-down of the global N 2 O budget. $WPRVSKHULFDHURVROV are considered important players in the atmospheric radiative balance: they may counterbalance greenhouse warming. Climate change models should, therefore, include estimates for aerosols. So far no comprehensive inventories have been made for aerosols and WKHLUSUHFXUVRUV (e.g. DMS) with a global coverage. - Estimates for NM-VOC may be complemented with PRUHGHWDLOHG 92&SURILOHV, separating out most of the highly reactive species. Most atmospheric models require estimates of the composition of NM-VOC for proper modelling of the chemistry of the PL[ of compounds. - ,PSURYH GDWD RQ VSHFLILF VRXUFHV such as biofuel use, biomass burning, oceans, volcanoes. Currenty emissions estimates for these sources are either very weak or absent. The quality of assessments of anthropogenic emissions will increase substantially when these estimates are improved. - 6RIWZDUHPRGLILFDWLRQV to improve the performance of update facilities and data retrieval options, e.g. for VOC profiles and comparisons of emission results of different datasets. Finally, by a soft-link of EDGAR files with the User Support System of the IMAGE model, consistent emission scenarios on grid can be provided using gridded emissions files from EDGAR to put regional emission projections created by the IMAGE 2 model on a 1 o x1 o grid (NRP project "IMAGE Model Contributions to International Climate Policy and Science", User Support System). These topics are not yet covered in the GEIA programme. Partially, the results will be Dutch contributions to GEIA. % 2EMHFWLYHVDQGH[SHFWHGUHVXOWVSURGXFWV %9DOLGDWLRQDQGXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV The objectives of this topic are: (1) to KDUPRQLVH the emissions of European countries with those recently published as CORINAIR'90; (2) to HQKDQFHWKHTXDOLW\ of the EDGAR inventories by incorporating results from the validation in future updates described under B.2; (3) to provide policy makers with NH\ LQIRUPDWLRQ needed for developing the most effective and robust policies (regions/sectors); (4) to give UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV to IPCC on improved national calculation methodologies, e.g. default aggregated emission factors; (5) to improve our understanding of the XQFHUWDLQW\ involved in global extrapolations such as those made for CH 4 and N 2 O. The latter objectives are preconditions to meet the first one. Comparison of EDGAR data with independently developed GEIA inventories will highlight differences in specific sectors or regions of the world, and may lead to corrections in either the EDGAR approach or the GEIA inventories, or to revisions of uncertainty estimates. Target of the comparison of EDGAR data and national GHG inventories is an evaluation of the independently selected data sources and calculation methodology, resulting in UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV WR WKH 'XWFK JRYHUQPHQWDQGWRWKH)&&&VHFUHWDULDW for improving default methods and default emission factors for estimation of national GHG emissions. Compilation of an indication of the uncertainty in emissions, both by source and by region, will identify the areas in which additional policy or additional research may be more or less effective. The conclusions of these activities will be summarised in reports for policy makers and the scientific community. %0RQLWRULQJDQGLQWHJUDWLRQ Based on new data, in particular on activities, in the context of the annual Environmental Balance coordinated by RIVM, DQQXDOO\DVVHVVPHQWVof recent emission trends of direct greenhouse gases will be made on a regional basis. These will include a brief description of developments in key sectors
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