Pan Am Flight 103 CIA Files.pdf - Paperless Archives
Pan Am Flight 103 CIA Files.pdf - Paperless Archives
Pan Am Flight 103 CIA Files.pdf - Paperless Archives
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..<br />
~~--.-.; quality and quantity to maintain Libyan oil produc<br />
. tion and.~~pons. Tripoli is already hirinl Bullarian<br />
, crews to ~replacc US crews in conductinl seismic<br />
, studies and is likely to brinl in more<br />
FlbU1J<br />
FlbU3<br />
[CJ<br />
Eastern Europe: Trade With Libya.<br />
19~<br />
Millinn l:S S<br />
. ,<br />
;<br />
;, :<br />
i<br />
Incentives for East European countries to replace<br />
US firms in Libya include:<br />
• Hllrd cllrrency lllrn;ngs. Increased sales of equipment<br />
and services to Libya, specifically in the<br />
petroleum sector, could ,enerate hard currencyeither<br />
by direct payment or via reexport of more<br />
Libyan oil. Goods and services previously supplied<br />
by US firms totaled about $600-700 million<br />
annually. Because of the soft oil market, Eastern<br />
Europe may have ,oad barlaininlleverale in<br />
strikinl barter deals with Libya. These same<br />
market conditions, however. limit prospectS for<br />
reexportinl more cirthis oil without puttinl additional<br />
pressure on prices. Still, even if Eastern<br />
"Europe marketed just one-fourth of the Libyan<br />
oil formerly sold by US companies and prices<br />
plunled to $10 per barrel, the relion could earn<br />
annually nearly $200 million in hard currency.<br />
..<br />
• Dillersi/icGt;oll oj Oil Sources. By diversifying its<br />
enerlY sources, Eastern Europe lowers the risk of<br />
domestic enerlY shortfalls-a particular concern<br />
if the Soviets decrease their oil exports to the<br />
region. The USSR might choose to redirect some<br />
oil expons to the West to generate hard currency<br />
. in tbe wake of fallinl enerlY prices or retain more<br />
oil at bome to balance supplies with growing<br />
domestic demand. In addition, Eastern Europe<br />
may look increasingly to Tbird World oil producers<br />
such as Libya because the price for Soviet<br />
oil-while payable iii East European goods-is<br />
now almost twil:e die world price. _<br />
The Risks<br />
. l!:lSlerft !!urope Is probably approaching increased<br />
Libyan commercial ties with caution. In recent<br />
East Germ:IOY 10' --....,<br />
HunBary 87 -----:~h. .....<br />
Romania 127 ----.,,,<br />
Czechoslovakia<br />
183<br />
YUBoslavia 204<br />
East Germany IS' -----,<br />
Hungary 21~ ---.....1<br />
Romania 311<br />
• £sllm~'~d.<br />
~~~L Bulll:uia 6~0<br />
- .'ccordin! '0 ollicial £2S' Europe,n ".d. SI""lio.<br />
~echo.lo'. ~I.n .nd Polish ImportS or libyan lOOIIs arc<br />
ne.li"bl •.<br />
c Includinl ~om..: oil im,orts on Son~1 a.:counu .<br />
Poland 233<br />
Yugoslavia<br />
447'<br />
Bulgaria 316<br />
years several Bloc countries have encountered difficulty<br />
in receivin& payment for exports-includin&<br />
military hardware-and construction services. Falling<br />
oil prices and revenues have worsened Tripoli's<br />
cash flow problems. Uncertainty about libya's<br />
creditworthiness has probably limited trade between<br />
Tripoli and the Bloc._<br />
18<br />
---------.___<br />
r_~_~· ___________ u _____________
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