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<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Austria - Engineering<br />

Buy (old: Buy)<br />

27-June-12<br />

Price target: EUR 26.00 (old: EUR 26.00)<br />

Torben Teichler<br />

Analyst<br />

Price: EUR 17.51 Next result: Q2 09.08.12<br />

Bloomberg: PAL AV Market cap: EUR 635.5 m torben.teichler@ha-research.de<br />

Reuters: PALF.VI Enterprise Value: EUR 830.9 m Tel.: +49 40 414 3885 74<br />

Europe stable, Americas as well as Russia drive growth<br />

European Market: Despite a strong exposure to the European market (~70% of<br />

sales), <strong>Palfinger</strong> currently faces a largely stable market environment; <strong>for</strong>emost<br />

as a result of a 25% sales share in Germany where a sound housing market on cheap<br />

financing is supporting demand <strong>for</strong> <strong>Palfinger</strong>’s products. Other large markets are<br />

France and Scandinavia accounting <strong>for</strong> 10% and 8% of sales respectively which both<br />

remain at sound levels. Generally exposure to Southern Europe is marginal with an<br />

estimated 3% of sales in Spain, Italy and Portugal. Eastern Europe contributes 5%<br />

of sales and remains largely stable while Russia, 4% of sales, is growing at low<br />

double digit rates given <strong>Palfinger</strong>’s improved presence in the region after the INMAN<br />

acquisition.<br />

North America, accounting <strong>for</strong> 18% of sales, continues to grow at double digit<br />

rates and is primarily driven by an improved dealer network and hence, market share<br />

gains. South America, 7% of sales, is equally following a growth track as the<br />

product portfolio <strong>for</strong> the region is incrementally stepped up.<br />

Chinese JV: Licences <strong>for</strong> the major JV with Sany are expected to be obtained in<br />

autumn 2012E, upon which <strong>Palfinger</strong> will start first production in rented premises.<br />

Production in the JV’s own facilities looks set to start in H2 2013E. The European<br />

sales JV is expected to start operation already in H2 2012E<br />

Internationalisation: After our last company visit as well as recent discussion with<br />

the company, we have the impression that further acquisitions are on the agenda,<br />

particularly in Brazil where <strong>Palfinger</strong> currently already operates a production facility<br />

and seeks to substantially increase its product offering. In our view, Brazil remains an<br />

attractive market with expected GDP growth rates of 5.5% in 2013E.<br />

With estimated investment costs of € 150m <strong>for</strong> the Chinese JV as well as one or two<br />

possible acquisitions ahead, a capital increase is becoming increasingly likely.<br />

The stock remains a clear BUY given: 1. the company’s strong exposure to the<br />

Americas as well as Northern Europe, 2. Significant revenue potential from the<br />

Chinese JV of around € 150m in the coming years, 3. The possibility of acquisitions in<br />

less penetrated markets. PT is € 26.00 based on FCFY 2013E.<br />

Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Sales 794.8 505.4 651.8 845.7 883.2 981.7 1,085.1<br />

Sales growth 14 % -36 % 29 % 30 % 4 % 11 % 11 %<br />

EBITDA 102.4 18.5 59.9 96.8 106.8 124.9 147.9<br />

EBIT 73.8 -3.0 37.1 67.9 77.7 92.5 109.9<br />

Net income 43.9 -7.8 24.2 42.0 50.6 58.7 68.7<br />

Net debt 168.2 153.4 163.6 174.0 189.4 238.4 239.2<br />

Net gearing 55.4 % 53.2 % 51.6 % 50.2 % 49.0 % 56.7 % 54.3 %<br />

Net Debt/EBITDA 1.6 8.3 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6<br />

EPS fully diluted 1.24 -0.22 0.68 1.19 1.43 1.66 1.94<br />

CPS 0.44 0.92 0.87 0.53 1.44 1.36 1.45<br />

DPS 0.39 0.00 0.22 0.38 0.47 0.55 0.64<br />

Dividend yield 2.2 % 0.0 % 1.2 % 2.1 % 2.6 % 3.0 % 3.6 %<br />

Gross profit margin 46.3 % 47.4 % 48.3 % 47.1 % 47.8 % 48.1 % 48.4 %<br />

EBITDA margin 12.9 % 3.7 % 9.2 % 11.4 % 12.1 % 12.7 % 13.6 %<br />

EBIT margin 9.3 % -0.6 % 5.7 % 8.0 % 8.8 % 9.4 % 10.1 %<br />

ROCE 15.6 % -0.6 % 6.9 % 11.4 % 12.0 % 13.0 % 14.0 %<br />

EV/sales 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8<br />

EV/EBITDA 7.9 42.9 13.5 8.4 7.8 7.0 6.0<br />

EV/EBIT 10.9 -266.0 21.7 12.0 10.7 9.5 8.0<br />

PER 12.6 -90.6 26.2 15.1 12.6 10.8 9.3<br />

Adjusted FCF yield 8.5 % 0.6 % 4.5 % 7.9 % 8.3 % 9.5 % 11.6 %<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 26.06.2012<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

High/low 52 weeks: 26.00 / 11.59<br />

Price/Book Ratio: 1.6<br />

Relative per<strong>for</strong>mance (ATX):<br />

3 months 7.7 %<br />

6 months 42.7 %<br />

12 months 7.2 %<br />

Changes in estimates<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

Key share data:<br />

Sales EBIT EPS<br />

old: 883.2 77.7 1.43<br />

∆ - - -<br />

old: 981.7 92.5 1.66<br />

∆ - - -<br />

old: 1,085.1 109.9 1.94<br />

∆ - - -<br />

Number of shares: (in m pcs) 35.4<br />

Authorised capital: (in € m) 0.0<br />

Book value per share: (in €) 10.9<br />

Ø trading volume: (12 months) 11,400<br />

Major shareholders:<br />

<strong>Palfinger</strong> Family 65.0 %<br />

Free Float 29.0 %<br />

Delta Lloyd 5.1 %<br />

<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG 0.9 %<br />

Danske 0.5 %<br />

Ringturm 0.4 %<br />

Company description:<br />

Production and sales of innovative<br />

lifting, loading and handling solutions<br />

along the interface of the transportation<br />

chain.


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Financials<br />

Profit and loss (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Net sales 794.8 505.4 651.8 845.7 883.2 981.7 1,085.1<br />

Sales growth 14.3 % -36.4 % 29.0 % 29.7 % 4.4 % 11.1 % 10.5 %<br />

Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process -9.1 -6.5 0.3 20.9 -4.0 1.0 1.1<br />

Total sales 785.7 498.9 652.1 866.6 879.2 982.6 1,086.2<br />

Other operating income 16.5 14.6 16.7 21.3 22.1 24.6 27.1<br />

Material expenses 421.9 262.6 337.3 458.7 459.0 510.0 560.5<br />

Personnel expenses 167.0 149.2 178.7 216.9 211.5 238.5 265.8<br />

Other operating expenses 110.9 83.1 93.0 115.5 124.1 133.8 139.2<br />

Total operating expenses 683.3 480.4 592.2 769.8 772.4 857.8 938.4<br />

EBITDA 102.4 18.5 59.9 96.8 106.8 124.9 147.9<br />

Depreciation 22.3 20.6 22.7 28.8 29.1 32.4 38.0<br />

EBITA 80.2 -2.2 37.1 67.9 77.7 92.5 109.9<br />

Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Impairment charges 6.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

EBIT 73.8 -3.0 37.1 67.9 77.7 92.5 109.9<br />

Interest income 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9<br />

Interest expenses 7.7 11.4 10.9 11.2 11.0 14.7 16.2<br />

Other financial result -2.7 1.8 3.1 -0.2 3.8 3.8 2.2<br />

Financial result -9.9 -8.9 -7.3 -10.9 -7.0 -10.8 -13.1<br />

Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 63.9 -11.9 29.8 57.0 70.7 81.7 96.8<br />

Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Earnings be<strong>for</strong>e taxes 63.9 -11.9 29.8 57.0 70.7 81.7 96.8<br />

Taxes 15.7 -5.1 2.6 9.6 16.3 18.8 23.4<br />

Net income from continuing operations 48.2 -6.8 27.3 47.4 54.4 62.9 73.4<br />

Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Net income 48.2 -6.8 27.3 47.4 54.4 62.9 73.4<br />

Minority interest 4.3 1.1 3.1 5.4 3.8 4.2 4.7<br />

Net income (net of minority interest) 43.9 -7.8 24.2 42.0 50.6 58.7 68.7<br />

Average number of shares 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4<br />

EPS reported 1.24 -0.22 0.68 1.19 1.43 1.66 1.94<br />

Profit and loss (common size) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Net sales 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %<br />

Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process -1.1 % -1.3 % 0.1 % 2.5 % -0.5 % 0.1 % 0.1 %<br />

Total sales 98.9 % 98.7 % 100.1 % 102.5 % 99.5 % 100.1 % 100.1 %<br />

Other operating income 2.1 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 %<br />

Material expenses 53.1 % 52.0 % 51.7 % 54.2 % 52.0 % 52.0 % 51.7 %<br />

Personnel expenses 21.0 % 29.5 % 27.4 % 25.6 % 23.9 % 24.3 % 24.5 %<br />

Other operating expenses 13.9 % 16.4 % 14.3 % 13.7 % 14.0 % 13.6 % 12.8 %<br />

Total operating expenses 86.0 % 95.1 % 90.9 % 91.0 % 87.4 % 87.4 % 86.5 %<br />

EBITDA 12.9 % 3.7 % 9.2 % 11.4 % 12.1 % 12.7 % 13.6 %<br />

Depreciation 2.8 % 4.1 % 3.5 % 3.4 % 3.3 % 3.3 % 3.5 %<br />

EBITA 10.1 % -0.4 % 5.7 % 8.0 % 8.8 % 9.4 % 10.1 %<br />

Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

Impairment charges 0.8 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

EBIT 9.3 % -0.6 % 5.7 % 8.0 % 8.8 % 9.4 % 10.1 %<br />

Interest income 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %<br />

Interest expenses 1.0 % 2.3 % 1.7 % 1.3 % 1.2 % 1.5 % 1.5 %<br />

Other financial result -0.3 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.2 %<br />

Financial result -1.2 % -1.8 % -1.1 % -1.3 % -0.8 % -1.1 % -1.2 %<br />

Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 8.0 % -2.3 % 4.6 % 6.7 % 8.0 % 8.3 % 8.9 %<br />

Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

Earnings be<strong>for</strong>e taxes 8.0 % -2.3 % 4.6 % 6.7 % 8.0 % 8.3 % 8.9 %<br />

Tax rate 24.6 % 43.1 % 8.6 % 16.9 % 23.0 % 23.0 % 24.2 %<br />

Net income from continuing operations 6.1 % -1.3 % 4.2 % 5.6 % 6.2 % 6.4 % 6.8 %<br />

Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

Net income 6.1 % -1.3 % 4.2 % 5.6 % 6.2 % 6.4 % 6.8 %<br />

Minority interest 0.5 % 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %<br />

Net income (net of minority interest) 5.5 % -1.5 % 3.7 % 5.0 % 5.7 % 6.0 % 6.3 %<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

2 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Balance sheet (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Intangible assets 66.9 74.0 128.0 150.4 150.4 150.4 150.4<br />

Property, plant and equipment 198.2 192.0 200.2 196.8 239.7 307.8 323.0<br />

Financial assets 14.8 16.8 15.9 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5<br />

FIXED ASSETS 279.9 282.8 344.0 360.6 403.5 471.7 486.9<br />

Inventories 185.6 148.7 159.8 198.6 207.4 230.5 254.8<br />

Accounts receivable 119.7 80.2 110.5 120.9 126.2 140.3 163.5<br />

Other current assets 22.5 17.7 15.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 0.0<br />

Liquid assets 9.1 33.1 15.9 15.1 10.6 6.6 30.8<br />

Deferred taxes 21.6 25.5 31.9 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2<br />

Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

CURRENT ASSETS 358.4 305.2 333.4 379.2 388.9 422.0 472.4<br />

TOTAL ASSETS 638.3 588.0 677.4 739.8 792.4 893.7 959.3<br />

S<strong>HA</strong>REHOLDERS EQUITY 303.5 288.3 317.4 346.6 386.1 420.3 440.3<br />

MINORITY INTEREST 6.4 3.9 14.0 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2<br />

Long-term debt 44.9 127.4 123.6 86.3 160.0 235.0 260.0<br />

Provisions <strong>for</strong> pensions and similar obligations 5.1 5.8 6.4 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.8<br />

Other provisions 38.8 30.7 50.3 57.0 56.3 62.6 69.2<br />

Non-current liabilities 88.8 163.9 180.2 149.2 222.4 304.0 335.9<br />

short-term liabilities to banks 132.3 59.1 55.9 102.8 40.0 10.0 10.0<br />

Accounts payable 62.3 35.2 55.9 62.4 62.9 72.6 80.3<br />

Advance payments received on orders 2.4 1.7 5.2 7.9 8.3 9.2 10.1<br />

Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 32.6 24.4 33.6 41.4 43.2 48.1 53.1<br />

Deferred taxes 10.1 11.4 15.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3<br />

Deferred income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Current liabilities 239.7 131.8 165.9 221.8 161.7 147.1 160.8<br />

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND S<strong>HA</strong>REHOLDERS EQUITY 638.4 588.0 677.4 739.8 792.4 893.7 959.3<br />

Balance sheet (common size) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Intangible assets 10.5 % 12.6 % 18.9 % 20.3 % 19.0 % 16.8 % 15.7 %<br />

Property, plant and equipment 31.1 % 32.7 % 29.5 % 26.6 % 30.3 % 34.4 % 33.7 %<br />

Financial assets 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.3 % 1.8 % 1.7 % 1.5 % 1.4 %<br />

FIXED ASSETS 43.8 % 48.1 % 50.8 % 48.7 % 50.9 % 52.8 % 50.8 %<br />

Inventories 29.1 % 25.3 % 23.6 % 26.8 % 26.2 % 25.8 % 26.6 %<br />

Accounts receivable 18.7 % 13.6 % 16.3 % 16.3 % 15.9 % 15.7 % 17.0 %<br />

Other current assets 3.5 % 3.0 % 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.7 % 2.4 % 0.0 %<br />

Liquid assets 1.4 % 5.6 % 2.3 % 2.0 % 1.3 % 0.7 % 3.2 %<br />

Deferred taxes 3.4 % 4.3 % 4.7 % 3.1 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 2.4 %<br />

Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

CURRENT ASSETS 56.1 % 51.9 % 49.2 % 51.3 % 49.1 % 47.2 % 49.2 %<br />

TOTAL ASSETS 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %<br />

S<strong>HA</strong>REHOLDERS EQUITY 47.5 % 49.0 % 46.8 % 46.9 % 48.7 % 47.0 % 45.9 %<br />

MINORITY INTEREST 1.0 % 0.7 % 2.1 % 3.0 % 2.8 % 2.5 % 2.3 %<br />

Long-term debt 7.0 % 21.7 % 18.2 % 11.7 % 20.2 % 26.3 % 27.1 %<br />

Provisions <strong>for</strong> pensions and similar obligations 0.8 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 %<br />

Other provisions 6.1 % 5.2 % 7.4 % 7.7 % 7.1 % 7.0 % 7.2 %<br />

Non-current liabilities 13.9 % 27.9 % 26.6 % 20.2 % 28.1 % 34.0 % 35.0 %<br />

short-term liabilities to banks 20.7 % 10.0 % 8.3 % 13.9 % 5.0 % 1.1 % 1.0 %<br />

Accounts payable 9.8 % 6.0 % 8.3 % 8.4 % 7.9 % 8.1 % 8.4 %<br />

Advance payments received on orders 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %<br />

Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 5.1 % 4.2 % 5.0 % 5.6 % 5.5 % 5.4 % 5.5 %<br />

Deferred taxes 1.6 % 1.9 % 2.2 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.8 %<br />

Deferred income 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %<br />

Current liabilities 37.6 % 22.4 % 24.5 % 30.0 % 20.4 % 16.5 % 16.8 %<br />

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND S<strong>HA</strong>REHOLDERS EQUITY 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

3 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Cash flow statement (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Net profit/loss 38.2 -14.0 27.3 47.4 54.4 62.9 73.4<br />

Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) 22.3 20.6 22.7 28.8 29.1 32.4 38.0<br />

Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Amortisation of intangible assets 6.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Others -3.7 -13.1 19.7 -10.8 0.3 0.3 0.3<br />

Cash flow from operations be<strong>for</strong>e changes in w/c 63.2 -5.5 69.7 65.4 83.9 95.6 111.7<br />

Increase/decrease in inventory -33.7 36.9 -11.0 -28.8 -8.8 -23.1 -24.3<br />

Increase/decrease in accounts receivable 5.8 39.5 -30.3 -5.4 -5.4 -14.1 -23.2<br />

Increase/decrease in accounts payable -2.7 -20.8 20.8 6.5 0.5 9.7 7.7<br />

Increase/decrease in other working capital positions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Increase/decrease in working capital -30.6 55.6 -20.6 -27.7 -13.7 -27.5 -39.8<br />

Cash flow from operating activities 32.6 50.0 49.1 37.7 70.2 68.2 71.8<br />

CAPEX 48.1 14.3 18.9 24.4 72.1 100.5 53.2<br />

Payments <strong>for</strong> acquisitions 29.7 3.0 36.3 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Financial investments 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Income from asset disposals 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Cash flow from investing activities -77.1 -15.9 -54.1 -34.6 -72.1 -100.5 -53.2<br />

Cash flow be<strong>for</strong>e financing -44.5 34.2 -5.0 3.1 -1.9 -32.4 18.6<br />

Increase/decrease in debt position 79.3 6.7 -11.6 8.2 10.9 45.0 25.0<br />

Purchase of own shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Capital measures 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Dividends paid 24.7 13.8 0.0 11.6 13.5 16.7 19.4<br />

Others -3.5 -3.2 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Effects of exchange rate changes on cash -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Cash flow from financing activities 51.1 -10.4 -12.6 -3.9 -2.6 28.3 5.6<br />

Increase/decrease in liquid assets 6.5 24.0 -17.2 -0.7 -4.5 -4.1 24.3<br />

Liquid assets at end of period 9.1 33.1 15.9 15.1 10.6 6.6 30.8<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

Regional split (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

Domestic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

yoy change n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a<br />

Rest of Europe 653.0 387.0 446.6 599.2 596.2 608.6 606.6<br />

yoy change 12.8 % -40.7 % 15.4 % 34.2 % -0.5 % 2.1 % -0.3 %<br />

NAFTA 41.0 60.0 156.1 192.4 227.0 229.7 229.0<br />

yoy change -16.3 % 46.3 % 160.1 % 23.3 % 18.0 % 1.2 % -0.3 %<br />

Asia Pacific 42.0 28.0 30.9 38.0 42.1 127.1 242.1<br />

yoy change 44.8 % -33.3 % 10.5 % 22.7 % 10.7 % 202.1 % 90.5 %<br />

Rest of world 59.0 31.0 18.2 16.1 18.0 16.3 7.5<br />

yoy change 51.3 % -47.5 % -41.4 % -11.6 % 12.1 % -9.7 % -53.8 %<br />

TTL 794.8 505.4 651.8 845.7 883.2 981.7 1,085.1<br />

yoy change 14.3 % -36.4 % 29.0 % 29.7 % 4.4 % 11.1 % 10.5 %<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

4 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Key ratios (EUR m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

P&L growth analysis<br />

Sales growth 14.3 % -36.4 % 29.0 % 29.7 % 4.4 % 11.1 % 10.5 %<br />

EBITDA growth -15.4 % -82.0 % 224.0 % 61.6 % 10.4 % 16.9 % 18.4 %<br />

EBIT growth -30.0 % -104.0 % -1345.3 82.8 % 14.4 % 19.0 % 18.8 %<br />

EPS growth -40.6 % -117.8 % -409.1 % 73.2 % 20.6 % 16.0 % 17.0 %<br />

Efficiency<br />

Total operating costs / sales 86.0 % 95.1 % 90.9 % 91.0 % 87.4 % 87.4 % 86.5 %<br />

Sales per employee 170.4 111.9 139.5 146.5 158.2 160.6 167.8<br />

EBITDA per employee 22.0 4.1 12.8 17.3 19.1 21.4 23.5<br />

Balance sheet analysis<br />

Avg. working capital / sales 28.7 % 42.8 % 30.8 % 27.1 % 29.0 % 28.1 % 28.4 %<br />

Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 4.3 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3<br />

Trade debtors in days of sales 55.0 57.9 61.9 52.2 52.2 52.2 55.0<br />

A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] 28.6 25.4 31.3 26.9 26.0 27.0 27.0<br />

Cash conversion cycle (days) 186.9 239.2 203.4 183.2 191.1 190.1 193.9<br />

Cash flow analysis<br />

Free cash flow -15.5 35.8 30.2 13.2 -1.9 -32.4 18.6<br />

Free cash flow/sales -1.9 % 7.1 % 4.6 % 1.6 % -0.2 % -3.3 % 1.7 %<br />

FCF / net profit -35.3 % -457.4 % 124.6 % 31.5 % -3.8 % -55.1 % 27.1 %<br />

FCF yield -2.4 % 5.6 % 4.8 % 2.1 % -0.3 % -5.1 % 2.9 %<br />

Capex / depn 169.5 % 66.4 % 87.6 % 84.6 % 247.3 % 310.3 % 140.0 %<br />

Capex / maintenance capex 349.9 % 82.1 % 104.0 % 103.8 % 373.5 % 505.7 % 259.9 %<br />

Capex / sales 6.1 % 2.8 % 3.1 % 2.9 % 8.2 % 10.2 % 4.9 %<br />

Security<br />

Net debt 168.2 153.4 163.6 174.0 189.4 238.4 239.2<br />

Net Debt/EBITDA 1.6 8.3 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6<br />

Net debt / equity 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5<br />

Interest cover 9.6 0.0 3.4 6.1 7.1 6.3 6.8<br />

Dividend payout ratio 31.4 % 0.0 % 32.2 % 32.1 % 33.0 % 33.0 % 33.0 %<br />

Asset utilisation<br />

Capital employed turnover 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3<br />

Operating assets turnover 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7<br />

Plant turnover 4.0 2.6 3.3 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.4<br />

Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 4.3 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3<br />

Returns<br />

ROCE 15.6 % -0.6 % 6.9 % 11.4 % 12.0 % 13.0 % 14.0 %<br />

ROE 14.5 % -2.7 % 7.6 % 12.1 % 13.1 % 14.0 % 15.6 %<br />

Other<br />

Interest paid / avg. debt 5.9 % 6.3 % 6.0 % 6.1 % 5.7 % 6.6 % 6.3 %<br />

No. employees (average) 4664 4517 4671 5600 5591 5847 6289<br />

Number of shares 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4<br />

DPS 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6<br />

EPS reported 1.24 -0.22 0.68 1.19 1.43 1.66 1.94<br />

Valuation ratios<br />

P/BV 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4<br />

EV/sales 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8<br />

EV/EBITDA 7.9 42.9 13.5 8.4 7.8 7.0 6.0<br />

EV/EBITA 10.1 -366.4 21.7 12.0 10.7 9.5 8.0<br />

EV/EBIT 10.9 -266.0 21.7 12.0 10.7 9.5 8.0<br />

EV/FCF -52.1 22.2 26.7 61.7 -432.5 -27.2 47.3<br />

Dividend yield 2.2 % 0.0 % 1.2 % 2.1 % 2.6 % 3.0 % 3.6 %<br />

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser<br />

5 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act<br />

(Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)<br />

Company<br />

Disclosure<br />

<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG 5<br />

(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this<br />

company.<br />

(2) Hauck & Aufhäuser offers Equity Advisory Services.<br />

(3) Over the previous 12 months, Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company <strong>for</strong> investment banking<br />

services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company <strong>for</strong> investment banking services.<br />

(4) Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) hold 5 % or more of the share capital of this company.<br />

(5) Hauck & Aufhäuser holds a trading position in shares of this company.<br />

(6) Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) holds a net short position of 1 % or more of the share capital of this company, calculated by<br />

methods required by German law as of the last trading day of the past month.<br />

(7) Within the last five years Hauck & Aufhäuser was a member of the issuing syndicate of this company.<br />

(8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication / dissemination. Thereafter, only factual changes have<br />

been made to the report<br />

Historical target price and rating changes <strong>for</strong> <strong>Palfinger</strong> AG in the last 12 months<br />

Initiation coverage<br />

18-October-10<br />

Hauck & Aufhäuser distribution of ratings and in proportion to investment banking services<br />

Buy 83.33 % 100.00 %<br />

Sell 7.14 % 0.00 %<br />

Hold 9.52 % 0.00 %<br />

Valuation basis/rating key<br />

Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.<br />

Sell:<br />

Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.<br />

Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.<br />

Competent supervisory authority<br />

Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and<br />

Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany<br />

6 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

Important Disclosures<br />

This research report has been prepared by Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong> AG, Hamburg, or one of its affiliates (“Hauck & Aufhäuser”).<br />

Hauck & Aufhäuser has made every ef<strong>for</strong>t to carefully research all in<strong>for</strong>mation contained in this financial analysis. The in<strong>for</strong>mation on which the<br />

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relevant specialised press as well as the company which is the subject of this financial analysis.<br />

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7 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>


<strong>Palfinger</strong> AG<br />

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8 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional <strong>Research</strong>

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