The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values ...

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Table 18: Frequency Crosstab <strong>of</strong> DISTANCE and PERIOD More Than 2 Years Before Announcement Less Than 2 Years Before Announcement After Announcement Before Construction Less Than 2 Years After Construction Between 2 and 4 Years After Construction More Than 4 Years After Construction Less Than 1 Mile 38 40 20 39 45 43 225 Between 1 and 3 Miles 283 592 340 806 502 709 3,232 Between 3 and 5 Miles 157 380 277 572 594 757 2,737 Outside <strong>of</strong> 5 Miles 132 133 130 218 227 425 1,265 TOTAL 610 1,145 767 1,635 1,368 1,934 7,459 5.4.2. Analysis <strong>of</strong> Results Results for the variables <strong>of</strong> interest for this hedonic model are presented in Table 19; as with previous models, the full set <strong>of</strong> results is contained in Appendix H. Similar to the All Sales Model discussed in the previous section, the adjusted R 2 for the model is 0.75, down slightly from 0.77 for the Base Model, and indicating that this model has slightly more difficulty (i.e., less explanatory power) modeling transactions that occurred before wind facility construction. All study area, spatial adjustment, and home and site characteristics are significant at or above the one percent level, are <strong>of</strong> the appropriate sign, and are similar in magnitude to the estimates derived from the post-construction Base Model. All <strong>of</strong> the DISTANCE / PERIOD interaction coefficients for distances outside <strong>of</strong> one mile are relatively small (-0.04 < 5 < 0.02) and none are statistically significant. This implies that there are no statistically significant differences in property values between the reference category homes – homes sold more than two years before announcement that were situated outside <strong>of</strong> five miles from where turbines were eventually erected – and any <strong>of</strong> the categories <strong>of</strong> homes that sold outside <strong>of</strong> one mile at any other period in the wind project development process. <strong>The</strong>se comparisons demonstrate, arguably more directly than any other model presented in this report that Area Stigma effects likely do not exist in the sample. <strong>The</strong> possible presence <strong>of</strong> a Nuisance Stigma is somewhat harder to discern. For homes that sold inside <strong>of</strong> one mile <strong>of</strong> the nearest wind turbine, in three <strong>of</strong> the six periods there are statistically significant negative differences between average property values when compared to the reference category. Transactions completed more than two years before facility announcement are estimated to be valued at 13% less (p value 0.02) than the reference category, transactions less than two years before announcement are 10% lower (p value 0.06), and transactions after announcement but before construction are 14% lower (p value 0.04). For other periods, however, these marginal differences are considerably smaller and are not statistically different from the reference category. Sales prices in the first two years after construction are, on average, 9% less (p value 0.15), those occurring between three and four years following construction are, on average, 1% less (p value 0.86), and those occurring more than four years after construction are, on average, 7% less (p value 0.37). Total 44
Table 19: Results from Temporal Aspects Model Temporal Aspects Variables <strong>of</strong> Interest Coef SE p Value n More Than 2 Years Before Announcement -0.13 0.06 0.02 38 Less Than 2 Years Before Announcement -0.10 0.05 0.06 40 Inside 1 Mile Between 1-3 Miles Between 3-5 Miles Outside 5 Miles Model Information Model Equation Number Dependent Variable Number <strong>of</strong> Cases Number <strong>of</strong> Predictors (k) F Statistic Adjusted R Squared After Announcement Before Construction -0.14 0.06 0.04 21 2 Years After Construction -0.09 0.07 0.11 39 Between 2 and 4 Years After Construction -0.01 0.06 0.85 44 More Than 4 Years After Construction -0.07 0.08 0.22 42 More Than 2 Years Before Announcement -0.04 0.03 0.18 283 Less Than 2 Years Before Announcement 0.00 0.03 0.91 592 After Announcement Before Construction -0.02 0.03 0.54 342 2 Years After Construction 0.00 0.03 0.90 807 Between 2 and 4 Years After Construction 0.01 0.03 0.78 503 More Than 4 Years After Construction 0.00 0.03 0.93 710 More Than 2 Years Before Announcement 0.00 0.04 0.92 157 Less Than 2 Years Before Announcement 0.00 0.03 0.97 380 After Announcement Before Construction 0.00 0.03 0.93 299 2 Years After Construction 0.02 0.03 0.55 574 Between 2 and 4 Years After Construction 0.01 0.03 0.65 594 More Than 4 Years After Construction 0.01 0.03 0.67 758 More Than 2 Years Before Announcement Omitted Omitted Omitted 132 Less Than 2 Years Before Announcement -0.03 0.04 0.33 133 After Announcement Before Construction -0.03 0.03 0.39 105 2 Years After Construction -0.03 0.03 0.44 215 Between 2 and 4 Years After Construction 0.03 0.03 0.44 227 More Than 4 Years After Construction 0.01 0.03 0.73 424 "Omitted" = reference category for fixed effects variables. "n" indicates number <strong>of</strong> cases in category when category = "1" 7 LN_SalePrice96 7459 56 404.5 0.75 What these results suggest (as shown in Figure 8) is that homes inside <strong>of</strong> one mile in the sample, on average, were depressed in value (in relation to the reference category) before and after the announcement <strong>of</strong> the wind facility and up to the point that construction began, but that those values rebounded somewhat after construction commenced. 81 This conclusion also likely explains why a significant and negative effect for homes that sold between 3000 feet and one mile is found in the All Sales Model presented in Section 5.3: homes within this distance range that sold prior to facility construction were depressed in value and most likely drove the results for homes that sold after announcement. Regardless, these results are not suggestive <strong>of</strong> a pervasive Nuisance Stigma. 81 As discussed in footnotes 47 (on page 19) and 74 (on page 38), the “announcement date” <strong>of</strong>ten refers to the first time the proposed facility appeared in the press. “Awareness” <strong>of</strong> the project in the community may precede this date, however, and therefore transactions occurring in the period “less than two years before announcement” could conceivably have been influenced by the prospective wind project, but it is considerably less likely that those in the period more than two years before announcement would have been influenced. 45
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LBNL-2829E ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE
Page 3 and 4:
LBNL-2829E The <st
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Table of Contents
Page 7 and 8:
List of Tables Tab
Page 9 and 10:
Acknowledgements The</stron
Page 11 and 12: This report builds on the previous
Page 13 and 14: Table ES-2: Impact
Page 15 and 16: Figure ES-3: Base Model Results: Sc
Page 17 and 18: In the Distance Stability Model, fo
Page 19 and 20: 1. Introduction Wind</stron
Page 21 and 22: model 7 and uses various forms <str
Page 23 and 24: A particularly useful application <
Page 25 and 26: Using different statistical methods
Page 27 and 28: Table 1: Summary of</strong
Page 29 and 30: By using a variety of</stro
Page 31 and 32: minimum of 164 fee
Page 33 and 34: 3.2.2. GIS Data GIS data on parcel
Page 35 and 36: In addition to the qualitative VIEW
Page 37 and 38: with the rest of t
Page 39 and 40: Figure 4: Frequency of</str
Page 41 and 42: 4. Base Hedonic Model This section
Page 43 and 44: impose the least structure on the u
Page 45 and 46: of the home, home
Page 47 and 48: etween the reference study area (WA
Page 49 and 50: Figure 7: Results from the Base Mod
Page 51 and 52: 5. Alternative Hedonic Models <stro
Page 53 and 54: concentrated inside of</str
Page 55 and 56: all other components are as defined
Page 57 and 58: the distance from them might not oc
Page 59 and 60: explanation is that the additional
Page 61: 6) More than four years after const
Page 65 and 66: Turning to the coefficient differen
Page 67 and 68: Table 21: Frequency Crosstab <stron
Page 69 and 70: 5.6.1. Dataset and Model Form Data
Page 71 and 72: with the scenic vista. In other wor
Page 73 and 74: 6. Repeat Sales Analysis In general
Page 75 and 76: Table 27: List of
Page 77 and 78: adjustment, and represent another t
Page 79 and 80: that are located within one mile <s
Page 81 and 82: 7. Sales Volume Analysis Th
Page 83 and 84: Figure 11: Sales Volumes by PERIOD
Page 85 and 86: three years before announcement), a
Page 87 and 88: 8. Wind Pr
Page 89 and 90: Drawing from the previous literatur
Page 91 and 92: Taken together, the results from al
Page 93 and 94: 9. Conclusions Though surveys gener
Page 95 and 96: Davis, L. W. (2008) The</st
Page 97 and 98: LeSage, J. P. (1999) The</s
Page 99 and 100: Watson, M. (2005) Estimation <stron
Page 101 and 102: Figure A - 1: Map of</stron
Page 103 and 104: all very small communities with lit
Page 105 and 106: A.2 TXHC Study Area: Howard County
Page 107 and 108: Census Statistics Name Type 2007 Po
Page 109 and 110: Data Collection and Summary County
Page 111 and 112: A.4 IABV Study Area: Buena Vista Co
Page 113 and 114:
Variables of Inter
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facilities than the towns o
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A.6 WIKCDC Study Area: Kewaunee and
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Variables of Inter
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elatively high elevations o
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A.8 PAWC Study Area: Wayne County (
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Census Statistics Name Type 2007 Po
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ural landscapes, with the largest p
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A.10 NYMC Study Area: Madison Count
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Variables of Inter
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account, combined with the determin
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Appendix C: Field Data Collection I
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Figure A - 14: Field Data Collectio
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ABOVE AVERAGE VISTA PREMIUM VISTA 1
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EXTREME VIEW 6 turbines visible fro
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5 is a vector of d
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values, that effect seems likely to
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unrestricted Home and Site Characte
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with coefficients above zero and th
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Figure A - 15: Histogram of
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The M Distance his
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sold within the preceding six month
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Appendix H: Alternative Models: Ful
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Table A - 8: Full Results for the C
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Table A - 10: Full Results for the
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Table A - 11: Full Results for the
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