The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values ...

The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values ... The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values ...

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Table 17: Results from Equality Test ong>ofong> DISTANCE Coefficients in the All Sales Model Inside 3000 Feet Between 3000 Feet and 1 Mile Between 1 and 3 Miles Between 3 and 5 Miles Outside 5 Miles n 80 65 2,359 2,200 1,000 Coefficient -0.06 -0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 Coefficient Difference * -0.05 -0.08 0.00 0.01 Reference Variance 0.0019 0.0015 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 Covariance 0.00010 0.00013 0.00013 0.00015 n/a Df 7419 7419 7419 7419 n/a t Test -1.23 -2.06 0.09 1.00 n/a Significance 0.22 0.04 0.93 0.32 n/a * Differences are rounded to the nearest second decimal place. "n" = number ong>ofong> cases in category when category = "1" 5.4. Temporal Aspects Model Based on the results ong>ofong> the All Sales Model, a more thorough investigation ong>ofong> how Nuisance and Area Stigma effects might change throughout the wind project development period is warranted. As discussed previously, there is some evidence that property value impacts may be particularly strong after the announcement ong>ofong> a disamenity, but then may fade with time as the community adjusts to the presence ong>ofong> that disamenity (e.g., Wolsink, 1989). ong>Theong> Temporal Aspects Model presented here allows for an investigation ong>ofong> how the different periods ong>ofong> the wind project development process affect estimates for the impact ong>ofong> DISTANCE on sales prices. 5.4.1. Dataset and Model Form Here the full set ong>ofong> 7,459 residential transactions is used, allowing an exploration ong>ofong> potential property value impacts (focusing on the DISTANCE variable) throughout time, including in the pre-construction period. ong>Theong> following model is then estimated: (7) 0 1 2 3 4 5 ln P N S X VIEW (DISTANCE PERIOD) s k v y where DISTANCE is a vector ong>ofong> categorical distance variables (e.g., less than one mile, between one and three miles, etc.), PERIOD is a vector ong>ofong> categorical development period variables (e.g., after announcement and before construction, etc.), 5 is a vector ong>ofong> y parameter estimates for each DISTANCE and PERIOD category as compared to the transactions more than two years before announcement and outside ong>ofong> five miles, and all other components are as defined in equation (1). ong>Theong> PERIOD variable contains six different options: 1) More than two years before announcement; 2) Less than two years before announcement; 3) After announcement but before construction; 4) Less than two years after construction; 5) Between two and four years after construction; and 42

6) More than four years after construction. In contrast to the Base Model, the two DISTANCE categories inside ong>ofong> one mile are collapsed into a single “less than one mile” group. This approach increases the number ong>ofong> transactions in each crossed subcategory ong>ofong> data, and therefore enhances the stability ong>ofong> the parameter estimates and decreases the size ong>ofong> the standard errors, thus providing an increased opportunity to discover statistically significant effects. ong>Theong>refore, in this model the DISTANCE variable contains four different options: 1) Less than one mile; 2) Between one and three miles; 3) Between three and five miles; and 4) Outside ong>ofong> five miles. 79 ong>Theong> number ong>ofong> transactions in each ong>ofong> the DISTANCE and PERIOD categories is presented in Table 18. ong>Theong> coefficients ong>ofong> interest are 5 , which represent the vector ong>ofong> marginal differences between homes sold at various distances from the wind facility (DISTANCE) during various periods ong>ofong> the development process (PERIOD) as compared to the reference group. ong>Theong> reference group in this model consists ong>ofong> transactions that occurred more than two years before the facility was announced for homes that were situated more than five miles from where the turbines were ultimately constructed. It is assumed that the value ong>ofong> these homes would not be affected by the future presence ong>ofong> the wind facility. ong>Theong> VIEW parameters, although included in the model, are not interacted with PERIOD and therefore are treated as controlling variables. 80 Although the comparisons ong>ofong> these categorical variables between different DISTANCE and PERIOD categories is be interesting, it is the comparison ong>ofong> coefficients within each PERIOD and DISTANCE category that is the focus ong>ofong> this section. Such comparisons, for example, allow one to compare how the average value ong>ofong> homes inside ong>ofong> one mile that sold two years before announcement compare to the average value ong>ofong> homes inside ong>ofong> one mile that sold in the postannouncement-pre-construction period. For this comparison, a t-Test similar to that in the All Sales Model is used. 79 For homes that sold in the pre-construction time frame, no turbines yet existed, and therefore DISTANCE is created using a proxy: the Euclidian distance to where the turbines were eventually constructed. This approach introduces some bias when there is more than one facility in the study area. Conceivably, a home that sold in the post-announcement-pre-construction period ong>ofong> one wind facility could also be assigned to the pre-announcement period ong>ofong> another facility in the same area. For this type ong>ofong> sale, it is not entirely clear which PERIOD and DISTANCE is most appropriate, but every effort was made to apply the sale to the wind facility that was most likely to have an impact. In most cases this meant choosing the closest facility, but in some cases, when development periods were separated by many years, simply the earliest facility was chosen. In general, any bias created by these judgments is expected to be minimal because, in the large majority ong>ofong> cases, the development process in each study area was more-or-less continuous and focused in a specific area rather then being spread widely apart. 80 As discussed earlier, the VIEW variable was considered most relevant for the post-construction period, so delineations based on development periods that extended into the pre-construction phase were unnecessary. It is conceivable, however, that VIEW effects vary in periods following construction, such as in the first two years or after that. Although this is an interesting question, the numbers ong>ofong> cases for the SUBSTANTIAL and EXTREME ratings – even if combined – when divided into the temporal periods were too small to be fruitful for analysis. 43

6) More than four years after c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>.<br />

In c<strong>on</strong>trast to the Base Model, the two DISTANCE categories inside <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong>e mile are collapsed<br />

into a single “less than <strong>on</strong>e mile” group. This approach increases the number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> transacti<strong>on</strong>s in<br />

each crossed subcategory <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> data, and therefore enhances the stability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the parameter estimates<br />

and decreases the size <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the standard errors, thus providing an increased opportunity to discover<br />

statistically significant effects. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, in this model the DISTANCE variable c<strong>on</strong>tains four<br />

different opti<strong>on</strong>s:<br />

1) Less than <strong>on</strong>e mile;<br />

2) Between <strong>on</strong>e and three miles;<br />

3) Between three and five miles; and<br />

4) Outside <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> five miles. 79<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> transacti<strong>on</strong>s in each <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the DISTANCE and PERIOD categories is presented in<br />

Table 18.<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> coefficients <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interest are 5 , which represent the vector <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marginal differences between<br />

homes sold at various distances from the wind facility (DISTANCE) during various periods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

the development process (PERIOD) as compared to the reference group. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> reference group in<br />

this model c<strong>on</strong>sists <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> transacti<strong>on</strong>s that occurred more than two years before the facility was<br />

announced for homes that were situated more than five miles from where the turbines were<br />

ultimately c<strong>on</strong>structed. It is assumed that the value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these homes would not be affected by the<br />

future presence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the wind facility. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> VIEW parameters, although included in the model, are<br />

not interacted with PERIOD and therefore are treated as c<strong>on</strong>trolling variables. 80<br />

Although the comparis<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these categorical variables between different DISTANCE and<br />

PERIOD categories is be interesting, it is the comparis<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coefficients within each PERIOD<br />

and DISTANCE category that is the focus <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this secti<strong>on</strong>. Such comparis<strong>on</strong>s, for example, allow<br />

<strong>on</strong>e to compare how the average value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> homes inside <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong>e mile that sold two years before<br />

announcement compare to the average value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> homes inside <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong>e mile that sold in the postannouncement-pre-c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong><br />

period. For this comparis<strong>on</strong>, a t-Test similar to that in the All<br />

Sales Model is used.<br />

79 For homes that sold in the pre-c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> time frame, no turbines yet existed, and therefore DISTANCE is<br />

created using a proxy: the Euclidian distance to where the turbines were eventually c<strong>on</strong>structed. This approach<br />

introduces some bias when there is more than <strong>on</strong>e facility in the study area. C<strong>on</strong>ceivably, a home that sold in the<br />

post-announcement-pre-c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong>e wind facility could also be assigned to the pre-announcement<br />

period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> another facility in the same area. For this type <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sale, it is not entirely clear which PERIOD and<br />

DISTANCE is most appropriate, but every effort was made to apply the sale to the wind facility that was most likely<br />

to have an impact. In most cases this meant choosing the closest facility, but in some cases, when development<br />

periods were separated by many years, simply the earliest facility was chosen. In general, any bias created by these<br />

judgments is expected to be minimal because, in the large majority <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cases, the development process in each study<br />

area was more-or-less c<strong>on</strong>tinuous and focused in a specific area rather then being spread widely apart.<br />

80 As discussed earlier, the VIEW variable was c<strong>on</strong>sidered most relevant for the post-c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> period, so<br />

delineati<strong>on</strong>s based <strong>on</strong> development periods that extended into the pre-c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> phase were unnecessary. It is<br />

c<strong>on</strong>ceivable, however, that VIEW effects vary in periods following c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>, such as in the first two years or<br />

after that. Although this is an interesting questi<strong>on</strong>, the numbers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cases for the SUBSTANTIAL and EXTREME<br />

ratings – even if combined – when divided into the temporal periods were too small to be fruitful for analysis.<br />

43

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