GORDON KEENE VELLA. - On Point News

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So what a base rate is is what the general rate of the population is after we subtract the error rate to the extent to which we know that. So a very conservative estimate would be of all the people who are sexually abused as children, in my conclusion about 14 to 16 percent of those will completely forget the abuse and then remember it years later. . . . Q. What is the error rate? . . . A. . . . So one way of looking at the error rate is what I call the direct method. And what we have is a number of studies, there are six studies that actually when people completely forget the abuse they had ways of estimating over time the estimate of people whose reports were likely to be false. And in one study it was 2.5 percent. In another it was 5 percent. Another was 3.9 to 13.6 percent. Another was 4 percent. Another was 1.9 percent. Another was 1.7 percent. If you average that out – . . . . (Id. at 43:1 - 45:20) (emphasis added.) The average error rate across these studies is about five percent, but that doesn’t mean in this given case it’s within that five percent. It just means that that’s the general rate for all the people who are abused who forget it. Thus, Dr. Brown employed figures from studies addressing the “accuracy” of recovered memories to provide an error rate for the hypothesis of dissociative amnesia or repressed memory. According to Dr. Pope, this testimony is materially misleading: These figures give the impression of great precision . . . because he implies that the only source of the error in such studies was the possibility of “people whose reports were likely to be false.” But in fact, the leading source of error in such studies is that the assumption of “complete forgetting” in such studies may itself be false, and indeed is very likely to be false . . . . (Pope Decl. 31.) Additionally: - 10 -
[S]etting aside the question of whether these people’s reports were or were not false, it is not possible to state with confidence that any of the people “completely forgot the abuse.” In other words, the error rate for diagnosing “dissociative amnesia” in the studies could effectively be as much as 100%. (Id.) Indeed, Dr. Brown’s “passing off” his accuracy error rate as an error rate applicable to the theory of repressed memory itself represents an overt misrepresentation, and Dr. Pope’s characterization of it as being only “misleading” is generous to a fault. The distinction between the theory itself and the accuracy of recovered memories is a critical distinction and must not be overlooked, especially not in the present case. The question of whether or not the “memories” are accurate, while relevant to the question of liability, does not address the statute of limitations issue in this case. In fact, Dr. Brown’s representation of error rate was in response to a question regarding the underlying hypothesis and not the purported accuracy of allegedly recovered memories. The desire for an articulated error rate for the hypothesis flowed naturally from the fact that Dr. Brown’s entire premise, and indeed the ability to maintain Plaintiff’s case, was predicated upon the validity of Dr. Brown’s hypothesis that an individual can “completely” forget or repress a memory and then fully recover that memory years later. 6 (See Filing 225, Mem. & Order on Summ. J. at 15-17) (finding that Dr. Brown’s testimony created genuine issue of material fact as to whether Plaintiff had, in fact, been unable to access memories until long after limitations period ended.) 6 “Dissociative amnesia” refers to the hypothesis that an individual could develop amnesia for a traumatic event, such that the person was unable to remember the event afterwards. The term does not apply to individuals who simply tried not to think about an event, or who had simply not recalled the event for a long period of time, but who would have been perfectly capable of recalling the event if specifically asked about it. (Pope Decl. 9.) - 11 -
Page 1 and 2: IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
Page 3 and 4: eviews, and 7 books on different ar
Page 5 and 6: new trial under Rule 60(b)(3) upon
Page 7 and 8: Significantly, the court so held ev
Page 9: is presumed to have been aware of t
Page 13 and 14: Dr. Barden, “As a national expert
Page 15 and 16: subjects are asked if they recall h
Page 17 and 18: of “complete forgetting.” Nonet
Page 19 and 20: And the list continues. Dr. Brown m
Page 21 and 22: accurately it is akin to a land war
Page 23 and 24: which is mentioned by Dr. Brown in
Page 25 and 26: when many of those publications eit

GORDON KEENE VELLA. - On Point News

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