Strategy Survival Guide

Strategy Survival Guide Version 2.1
Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit
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Strategy Skills > Appraising Options
Multi-criteria analysis
> in practice
Once the preferred strategic direction has been determined and policy options to achieve that direction have
been designed, analysis is needed in order to select the preferred policy option. Multi-criteria analysis can be
used for this purpose.
The term multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is applied to a nested family of techniques, all of which enable policy
options to be assessed against a range of appraisal criteria. The different MCA techniques include some or
all of the following stages:
1. Identify policy options for analysis
2. Identify criteria against which options will be assessed
3. Assess options against criteria using quantitative or qualitative data
4. Score options against criteria on a consistent basis
5. Weight criteria and compare options
6. Carry out sensitivity analysis & revisit conclusions.
Process
The Process is extremely important to enable successful multi-criteria analysis. However many of the above
stages are employed, a key characteristic of MCA is the exercise of explicit judgements – for example in
choosing options and criteria, determining scores, and weighting criteria against each other. This requires an
answer to the question, "Whose judgements are being used?".
In some cases it may be reasonable for officials or for Ministers to exercise these judgements. But in a
climate of public suspicion of government, and lack of trust in institutions more generally, this may not deliver
sufficient credibility. Hence a more appropriate approach may be to use the general public (for example in a
"Citizens’ Jury") or stakeholders (for example in "Stakeholder Workshops") to make the judgements that are
necessary. A decision on the most appropriate process to employ at each stage should be made at the
planning stage for the MCA.
1. Identify policy options for appraisal
MCA will typically be used to assess a number of options for achieving a policy objective, one of which
should be a "do nothing" or "base case" scenario. Ideally, the starting list of options should be as
comprehensive as possible. However, an iterative process may be necessary, in which new options are
generated in response to the assessment of the initial options (e.g. if none of the initial options perform well).
2. Identify criteria against which options will be assessed
There are a number of different ways in which the range of possible criteria can be categorised, and each
individual issue is likely to employ its own set of criteria. However, the criteria employed should certainly
cover the:
• suitability
• feasibility
• acceptability
• risks of each of the options.
Risk can be defined as uncertainty of outcomes (whether positive or negative). There are two types of
uncertainty: uncertainty that is a result of a lack of information, and uncertainty in terms of unpredictable
Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills
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