Strategy Survival Guide
Strategy Survival Guide
Strategy Survival Guide
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Scenarios used in the <strong>Strategy</strong> Unit study<br />
Non-GM-Specific Regulations<br />
Tangled<br />
threads<br />
Part of the<br />
fabric<br />
UK Public<br />
Rejects GM<br />
UK Public<br />
Accepts GM<br />
Not made<br />
in the UK<br />
Bare<br />
minimum<br />
Separate<br />
weave<br />
GM-Specific Regulations<br />
The role played by the scenarios in the final report<br />
The five different scenarios played a crucial role in the final report. After we had defined the<br />
characteristics and conditions of each scenario, we considered the costs and benefits that would arise in<br />
each case. This enabled the study to highlight the importance of trade-offs and weighting of different<br />
costs and benefits. An example is attached at Annex A, for just one of the scenarios. As a final step, we<br />
also considered possible disrupters in each of the scenarios – how these might arise, how they would be<br />
dealt with and what the implications might be.<br />
Lessons learned<br />
Developing new scenarios is time-consuming - but definitely achievable. In some cases it will be possible<br />
to use "off the shelf" scenarios developed by other people. But in other cases, no existing scenarios will fit<br />
the bill. If so, it may well be worthwhile developing new scenarios, providing that sufficient time and<br />
resources are devoted to this exercise.<br />
Scenarios are a tool, not an end in themselves. Scenarios should be defined and used in the way that is<br />
most helpful to the study - there are no right or wrong answers.<br />
The importance of involving stakeholders and experts in scenario development. If scenarios are to be<br />
used, it is essential that they have widespread buy-in. The best way to achieve this is by giving the<br />
relevant people a "sense of ownership" of the scenarios.<br />
This scenarios were crucially important in the GM study, where opinion was so polarised and we faced<br />
criticism that it was there to provide evidence for a predetermined Government decision to allow the<br />
commercialisation of GM. The scenarios illustrated that we were studying all possibilities, including a "no-<br />
GM" future.<br />
The scenarios analysis enabled the SU to investigate whether government policy objectives could be<br />
supported across a range of possible outcomes.<br />
Scenarios can be powerful tools - but they cannot do everything! Scenarios should be seen as a<br />
complement to other techniques, such as risk assessment or cost-benefit analysis - not as a substitute.<br />
Scenarios need to have names! This may be one of the most difficult tasks in scenario development - but<br />
well-chosen scenario names are much more informative than 1, 2, 3 ... or A, B, C etc.<br />
<strong>Strategy</strong> <strong>Survival</strong> <strong>Guide</strong> – <strong>Strategy</strong> Skills<br />
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