Strategy Survival Guide

Scenario development
In Practice 2: SU GM Crops Project
Why we used scenarios in our analysis
The GM Crops team used a scenario-based approach to consider the range of costs and benefits that
could be associated with the growing, or not growing, of GM crops in the UK. The central purpose was to
consider the relative costs and benefits of alternative futures for the UK (over a 10-15 year time scale),
both with and without the commercialisation of GM crops on UK farms. The scenarios did not predict the
future, nor did they have probabilities attached to them. However, all of the scenarios were scrutinised to
ensure that they were plausible and internally consistent.
There were a number of reasons why a scenario approach was deemed appropriate for this study:
• The use of scenarios meant that a range of possible future outcomes could be considered,
without having to pre-judge the most likely outcome for what was a controversial subject area.
• Many different factors needed to be taken into account in this study. Assessing each of these in
the abstract could have presented a confusing and misleading picture. Tying the assessment to
specific scenarios helped to avoid this.
• A scenario-based approach was helpful in capturing the dynamics of the costs and benefits
associated with GM crops. There is a dynamic to each of the individual scenarios (see below),
but in addition, it is possible to envisage that over time, the UK situation could evolve from one
scenario into another.
• The scenario-based approach helped to inform the policy-making process, without having to
make judgements about the "best" policy approach – which was outside the scope of the study.
How we developed our scenarios
The GM Crops team ran a one-day "scenario workshop" involving about 25 stakeholders and experts.
The workshop was facilitated by independent scenario experts. Its purpose was to identify the key issues
that would need to be taken into account in scenario definition and, in particular, to identify the two axes
that would be used to define our scenarios. The scenarios were subsequently developed by the GM
Crops team, in the light of discussions with Expert Advisory Groups and other stakeholders. Draft outputs
– and a note of the scenario workshop – were published for comment by the wider public.
Description of the scenarios
The scenarios represent possible future outcomes that could occur in about 10-15 years time. Four of the
five scenarios were based around two axes:
• The vertical axis on regulations represents a range of possible regulatory regimes. At one
extreme are "Non-GM-specific regulations", under which GM crops and foods are treated much
like any other novel crop or food. At the other extreme are "GM-specific regulations", under which
GM crops are subject to a comprehensive approvals process, conditions of use and monitoring
requirements.
• The horizontal axis represents a range of public attitudes. Public attitudes are complex and
heterogeneous. The axis covers a range from public attitudes which are broadly positive to GM,
through to public attitudes which are broadly negative. A distinct fifth scenario looked at the
possibility that the UK may reject GM crops outright. The scenarios are illustrated below.
Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills
Page 163