Strategy Survival Guide

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Scenario development In Practice 1: SU Energy Review The DTI Foresight scenarios describe four futures based on two extremes of governance (global or local) and two extremes of social values (individual or communal). The scenarios are realistic in the sense that they represent value systems held by minority groups, but appear extreme when compared to the current culture. Foresight Environmental Futures and Conventional Development Globalisation World Markets Global Sustainability Consumerism Conventional Development Community Provincial Enterprise Local Stewardship Regionalisation The Foresight scenarios were used in the Energy review on two time scales. The first was to 2050 with a view to seeing the degree to which the scenarios were consistent with a low-carbon future. The second use was to 2020 where the main use was to explore the ways in which the electricity generating stations being decommissioned could be replaced. In both cases the scenarios were developed quantitatively with detailed projections of energy demands (by sector and type of demand; heat, power or transport). Each demand was forecast using a driver (such as number of households), level of energy services required (driven by GDP growth and curtailed by saturation effects) and improvements in energy efficiency (by both deliberate policy and technical progress). The choice of supply options was harder to quantify in detail, but the different drivers in each scenario could be interpreted in terms of preferences. For example in both the "global" scenarios (World Markets and Global Sustainability) energy supply companies were assumed to be operating in a liberalised commercial market. This precludes the use of nuclear energy since the financial risks associated with investment in nuclear stations is regarded as too high for commercial companies. In the "regional" scenarios (Provincial Enterprise and Local Stewardship) the operating values encouraged national selfsufficiency which encouraged the use of local resources. Striking conclusions from the scenarios included identifying the significance of old solid wall housing (although only 20% of the projected housing stock they accounted for 50% of domestic space heating demand) and the significance of air transport (the fastest growing sector with no sign of saturation). The scenarios also demonstrated the potential for improved energy efficiency in all cases. Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 162
Scenario development In Practice 2: SU GM Crops Project Why we used scenarios in our analysis The GM Crops team used a scenario-based approach to consider the range of costs and benefits that could be associated with the growing, or not growing, of GM crops in the UK. The central purpose was to consider the relative costs and benefits of alternative futures for the UK (over a 10-15 year time scale), both with and without the commercialisation of GM crops on UK farms. The scenarios did not predict the future, nor did they have probabilities attached to them. However, all of the scenarios were scrutinised to ensure that they were plausible and internally consistent. There were a number of reasons why a scenario approach was deemed appropriate for this study: • The use of scenarios meant that a range of possible future outcomes could be considered, without having to pre-judge the most likely outcome for what was a controversial subject area. • Many different factors needed to be taken into account in this study. Assessing each of these in the abstract could have presented a confusing and misleading picture. Tying the assessment to specific scenarios helped to avoid this. • A scenario-based approach was helpful in capturing the dynamics of the costs and benefits associated with GM crops. There is a dynamic to each of the individual scenarios (see below), but in addition, it is possible to envisage that over time, the UK situation could evolve from one scenario into another. • The scenario-based approach helped to inform the policy-making process, without having to make judgements about the "best" policy approach – which was outside the scope of the study. How we developed our scenarios The GM Crops team ran a one-day "scenario workshop" involving about 25 stakeholders and experts. The workshop was facilitated by independent scenario experts. Its purpose was to identify the key issues that would need to be taken into account in scenario definition and, in particular, to identify the two axes that would be used to define our scenarios. The scenarios were subsequently developed by the GM Crops team, in the light of discussions with Expert Advisory Groups and other stakeholders. Draft outputs – and a note of the scenario workshop – were published for comment by the wider public. Description of the scenarios The scenarios represent possible future outcomes that could occur in about 10-15 years time. Four of the five scenarios were based around two axes: • The vertical axis on regulations represents a range of possible regulatory regimes. At one extreme are "Non-GM-specific regulations", under which GM crops and foods are treated much like any other novel crop or food. At the other extreme are "GM-specific regulations", under which GM crops are subject to a comprehensive approvals process, conditions of use and monitoring requirements. • The horizontal axis represents a range of public attitudes. Public attitudes are complex and heterogeneous. The axis covers a range from public attitudes which are broadly positive to GM, through to public attitudes which are broadly negative. A distinct fifth scenario looked at the possibility that the UK may reject GM crops outright. The scenarios are illustrated below. Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 163
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Building an Evidence Base 113 Data
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