Strategy Survival Guide

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3. Bring drivers together into a viable framework • The next step is to link these drivers together to provide a meaningful framework. This should involve grouping the drivers into combinations that are meaningful. • This is probably the most difficult conceptual step and intuition will be important. 4. Produce initial mini-scenarios • The outcome of the previous step is usually between seven and nine logical groupings of drivers. • Having placed factors in these groups work out, very approximately at this stage, what is the connection between them. What does each group of drivers represent? 5. Reduce scenarios • The main action at this stage is to reduce the seven to nine mini-scenarios into two or three larger scenarios. The challenge is to come down to finding just 2 or 3 "containers" into which all the topics can sensibly be fitted. This usually requires considerable amount of debate but usually producers fundamental insights into what are the really important issues. • The main reason for reducing to 2, 3 or 4 scenarios is a practical one. Managers who will be asked to use the final scenarios can only cope effectively with a small number of versions. 6. Testing the scenarios • Having grouped the drivers into scenarios, the next step is to test them for viability. Do they make sense? If they don't intuitively "hang together" then why not? • The usual problem is that one of more of the assumptions turns out to be unrealistic. If so, then you need to return to the second step. • The key point to remember is that developing scenarios is likely to be an iterative process. 7. Write the scenarios • Once tested for viability, the scenarios should be written up in the format most useful for the client. • Most scenarios will be in written form, especially where they will almost inevitably be qualitative. Other formats include adding "fictional" characters to the material, using numeric data or diagrams, or using more detailed fictional forms. An extreme example of the latter could be assuming the character of a leader writer in the Financial Times in the year 2010, for instance. 8. Validation of Scenarios • Once written up, the scenarios should go through a consultation phrase to allow them to be approved and revised. Original workshop delegates should always be consulted but the audience for scenario testing may be much wider - putting up on an electronic forum can be useful (but the scenarios should have a caveat stressing they are in development). The key message here is to cast your net wide. • Built into the whole scenario process must be the capacity to revise scenarios when there is some fundamental change to underpinning drivers. Thus a team member should be assigned to continually review the validity of scenarios – this is an iterative process not a 'one-off’. Incorporation of scenarios into project, policy or organisational culture Scenarios must be completely embedded in the project or policy of which they form a part. If they are to become part of the organisational mindset then they will need careful dissemination to get good engagement. It is also important that they form part of the underpinning assumptions of future work not just the work they were originally commissioned for. For good engagement with scenarios, they must be widely circulated. When distributing the scenarios, however, you should make clear whether they are being distributed for comment or for information. The report - A Futurist toolbox outlines an explorative scenario process. Strengths • Can help to identify opportunities. • Can act as a checklist during planning to ensure that nothing has been forgotten. • Can be used to give early warning to possible changes. Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 160
• Can be used to envisage preferred futures. • Remove some of today’s constraints. • Allow strategists to say "what if…?" "I like that…" "That would be a good outcome". • Assist in separating tangled issues. • Help to break 'group think’ and conventional wisdom. • Allow ‘undiscussables’ to be aired. • Create a rich and shared picture of outcomes. Weaknesses • Can be difficult to translate the outcomes into concrete decisions. • The method is partly based on qualitative information that is imprecise. • Beware of focussing too much on the scenarios at the expense of the actual objective for using them. References The Generic Scenarios paper by the Strategy Unit Strategic Futures team (December 2002) presents summaries and provides links to generic scenario sets, in order to provide background materials to help those interested in using scenarios for their own projects. Exploring Corporate Strategy, Johnson, G., and Scholes, K. S.P Schnaars 'How to develop and use scenarios' in R.G. Dyson Strategic Planning: Models and analytical techniques, Wiley 1990 Scenarios shooting the rapids, Wack, P. Havard Business Review Vol. 63 no 6 Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, Ringland, G. 1998 The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden et al 2002 Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 161
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Building an Evidence Base 113 Data
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