Strategy Survival Guide
Strategy Survival Guide
Strategy Survival Guide
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
3. Bring drivers together into a viable framework<br />
• The next step is to link these drivers together to provide a meaningful framework. This should involve<br />
grouping the drivers into combinations that are meaningful.<br />
• This is probably the most difficult conceptual step and intuition will be important.<br />
4. Produce initial mini-scenarios<br />
• The outcome of the previous step is usually between seven and nine logical groupings of drivers.<br />
• Having placed factors in these groups work out, very approximately at this stage, what is the<br />
connection between them. What does each group of drivers represent?<br />
5. Reduce scenarios<br />
• The main action at this stage is to reduce the seven to nine mini-scenarios into two or three larger<br />
scenarios. The challenge is to come down to finding just 2 or 3 "containers" into which all the topics<br />
can sensibly be fitted. This usually requires considerable amount of debate but usually producers<br />
fundamental insights into what are the really important issues.<br />
• The main reason for reducing to 2, 3 or 4 scenarios is a practical one. Managers who will be asked<br />
to use the final scenarios can only cope effectively with a small number of versions.<br />
6. Testing the scenarios<br />
• Having grouped the drivers into scenarios, the next step is to test them for viability. Do they make<br />
sense? If they don't intuitively "hang together" then why not?<br />
• The usual problem is that one of more of the assumptions turns out to be unrealistic. If so, then you<br />
need to return to the second step.<br />
• The key point to remember is that developing scenarios is likely to be an iterative process.<br />
7. Write the scenarios<br />
• Once tested for viability, the scenarios should be written up in the format most useful for the client.<br />
• Most scenarios will be in written form, especially where they will almost inevitably be qualitative.<br />
Other formats include adding "fictional" characters to the material, using numeric data or diagrams,<br />
or using more detailed fictional forms. An extreme example of the latter could be assuming the<br />
character of a leader writer in the Financial Times in the year 2010, for instance.<br />
8. Validation of Scenarios<br />
• Once written up, the scenarios should go through a consultation phrase to allow them to be<br />
approved and revised. Original workshop delegates should always be consulted but the audience for<br />
scenario testing may be much wider - putting up on an electronic forum can be useful (but the<br />
scenarios should have a caveat stressing they are in development). The key message here is to cast<br />
your net wide.<br />
• Built into the whole scenario process must be the capacity to revise scenarios when there is some<br />
fundamental change to underpinning drivers. Thus a team member should be assigned to continually<br />
review the validity of scenarios – this is an iterative process not a 'one-off’.<br />
Incorporation of scenarios into project, policy or organisational culture<br />
Scenarios must be completely embedded in the project or policy of which they form a part. If they are to<br />
become part of the organisational mindset then they will need careful dissemination to get good<br />
engagement. It is also important that they form part of the underpinning assumptions of future work not just<br />
the work they were originally commissioned for.<br />
For good engagement with scenarios, they must be widely circulated. When distributing the scenarios,<br />
however, you should make clear whether they are being distributed for comment or for information.<br />
The report - A Futurist toolbox outlines an explorative scenario process.<br />
Strengths<br />
• Can help to identify opportunities.<br />
• Can act as a checklist during planning to ensure that nothing has been forgotten.<br />
• Can be used to give early warning to possible changes.<br />
<strong>Strategy</strong> <strong>Survival</strong> <strong>Guide</strong> – <strong>Strategy</strong> Skills<br />
Page 160