Strategy Survival Guide

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Strategy Survival Guide Version 2.1 Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit home | strategy development | strategy skills | site index Strategy Skills > Building an Evidence Base Looking forward - Scenario development > in practice Scenarios are used to identify a number of possible alternative futures and, optionally, how we might get there. Scenarios are not predictions of the future. They show how different interpretations of the driving forces of change can lead to different possible futures. By setting up several scenarios a possibility space is created and it is within this space that the future is likely to unfold. Scenarios are an important and useful tool in providing a neutral space (the future) for discussion, helping to build consensus on the key issues facing all stakeholders. They: • Offer an inclusive and consultative process • Can reflect the views and challenges facing all stakeholders • Are a useful tool for organisational learning • Use stories to describe strategic issues • Allow detailed analysis to be woven in. As well as being useful in strategy formulation, they can be used in policy development, conflict resolution, group learning and to aid rehearsal of management decisions. They can be used at many levels: • Nations • Government • Regions • Sectors • Multi-national companies • Small / Medium enterprises • Single institutions • Multi-organisation partnerships. Scenarios can be used over any time scale, dependent on the primary objective for using them. Scenarios developed in order to aid team development, for example, are likely to be developed more quickly and have a shorter shelf life than those used for policy development. Scenario Development – background Societal, technological, economical, environmental and political drivers (as well as organisational and transactional environments) should be identified and used in constructing scenarios. Good scenarios: • Are based on analysis of change drivers • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be distinguished • Are compelling and credible • Are internally logic and consistent. Scenarios will not: • Make the decisions • Begin an unstoppable course of action • Ever be entirely right (although elements of each scenario could be) • Persuade everybody. Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 158
When building scenarios, the focus of interest needs to be agreed, the change drivers identified and the key uncertainties mapped to determine the critical planning area for scenario development – the area of uncertain, important change drivers. The dynamics between these change drivers and how they play off each other are the starting point for developing different possible futures. For scenarios to be effective they need to plausible and compelling (as opposed to being implausible or obvious), as well as being stretching – taking their intended audience into what can be 'uncomfortable’ territory. There is a risk or even likelihood that audiences may 'pull back’ from such scenarios, for a number of reasons: • People are not skilled at thinking about the future and therefore may find it difficult to understand where the scenarios have come from • Scenarios invite people to lay bare their assumptions • Scenario thinking removes the rules and structures of today, which makes some people defensive. • Scenarios invite people to explore what might happen, and people want to control what will happen • Understanding scenarios (the output) relies on understanding drivers and uncertainties (the input) and many people do not have a detailed understanding of the current situation. For effective scenario generation therefore it is important to know well the intended use and audience for the scenarios. As far as possible, the audience should be used for developing the scenarios and testing and verifying the plausibility and areas of comfort or discomfort in each scenario. Scenario Development - process There are a number of factors which will affect the design of the scenario process. For example: is there one preferred or multiple explorative futures? • The Normative method involves defining a preferred vision of the future and outlining different pathways from the goal to the present. • The Explorative method meanwhile involves defining drivers, assessing their importance and outlining the scenarios. Another important factor in the design process is whether new or contextualised scenarios are the goal. It is time consuming to generate scenarios from scratch. It can be more effective therefore to make use of existing generic scenarios, already developed and tested. Examples include the DTI scenarios produced for their 'futures lab’ (futurefocus@dti) and the scenarios developed by Shell (see references). There are also many other 'off-the-shelf’ scenarios. A further factor for consideration is the extent of consultation that is desired and indeed possible. It may be decided to present stakeholders with the finished scenario. This is swift but it can be hard for stakeholders to engage with scenarios if they were not involved in their development. It is better if stakeholders can participate in building the scenarios. This can be time-consuming but if well managed it is possible to move from the first stage identification of raw drivers to final scenario generation within a couple of weeks (one of the hardest tasks being identification of key individuals for the process). Typical steps in scenario generation 1. Assemble the scenario team • The core team will be responsible for project and workshop management, providing sponsoring departments’ points of view and internal communications. • Experienced scenario-planners should also form part of the team - to lead the process and ensure clarity about the focus of interest. 2. Identify drivers of change • It is often best to use workshops to do this. You should determine the 'mix’ of stakeholder groups and size and number of workshops required (suggested bare minimum: 10 people, one half day workshop). • Ensure participants understand purpose, format and outputs from the workshop (and have good prebriefing materials). • Brainstorm on drivers of change: compiling an unfiltered list; disposing of obviously invalid drivers and sorting and categorising the list. Strategy Survival Guide – Strategy Skills Page 159
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Building an Evidence Base 113 Data
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Strategy Survival Guide

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