Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience

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Assessment of adaptation tipping points 1. Scoping the assessment: make a long list of possible consequences of climate change for a region or sectors 2. Prioritise climate change trends and impacts: From long list to short list. Select impacts based on potential severity and likeliness (e.g. build urgency matrix (use trends + extreme scenarios)) 3. Select indicators and threshold values: determine what effects are acceptable according to: Analysis of policy objectives / standards / administrative arrangements, Public opinion, and/or Statistics 4. Determine adaptation tipping points: how much change sectors can handle, given the thresholds value (independent from time) (e.g. by system analysis linking climate conditions to the thresholds) 5. Translate tipping points to timescale: Use existing scenario (eg IPCC, or from national agencies) to assess when tipping points are likely to occur 6. Determine alternative adaptation strategies: assess how to implement a different strategy or additional measures to postpone / resolve a tipping point (methods depend on scale, score these alternatives to policy targets) 7. Determine decision tree & adaptation pathways: Repeat 4 & 5 for these alternatives + assess how easy it is to switch in time (flexibility/‘no regret’)
Assessment of vuln. / adaptation tipping points 1. Scoping the assessment: make a long list of possible consequences of climate change for a region or sectors Rows: Effects of climate change + scores of likelihood Columns: Impacts (on flood safety, fresh water supply, economic activities (navigation, drinking water, power production)+ scores of severity)
Page 1 and 2: Adaptation Tipping Points and Resil
Page 3: Experiment
Page 6 and 7: Illustrations - Delta Programme (Lo
Page 10 and 11: Assessment of ‘adaptation tipping
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Page 18 and 19: Central research questions Can ada
Page 20: Our water system is very resilient!
Page 23 and 24: Discussion: what you like / dislike
Page 25: Adaptation tipping points Assess:
Page 31 and 32: Impact assessment / indicators / IP
Page 33 and 34: Storylines & development pathways (
Page 35 and 36: Adaptation - addressing different d
Page 37 and 38: A combination…?

Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience

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