Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
1. Scoping the assessment: make a long list of possible consequences of
climate change for a region or sectors
2. Prioritise climate change trends and impacts: From long list to short list.
Select impacts based on potential severity and likeliness (e.g. build urgency
matrix (use trends + extreme scenarios))
3. Select indicators and threshold values: determine what effects are
acceptable according to: Analysis of policy objectives / standards /
administrative arrangements, Public opinion, and/or Statistics
4. Determine adaptation tipping points: how much change sectors can
handle, given the thresholds value (independent from time) (e.g. by system
analysis linking climate conditions to the thresholds)
5. Translate tipping points to timescale: Use existing scenario (eg IPCC, or
from national agencies) to assess when tipping points are likely to occur
6. Determine alternative adaptation strategies: assess how to implement a
different strategy or additional measures to postpone / resolve a tipping
point (methods depend on scale, score these alternatives to policy targets)
7. Determine decision tree & adaptation pathways: Repeat 4 & 5 for these
alternatives + assess how easy it is to switch in time (flexibility/‘no regret’)