Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience
Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience
Assessment of adaptation tipping points Ask: What are socio-political objectives (non-climate)? Select indicators and threshold values for impacts on sectors & regions: determine what situation is acceptable according to: • Analysis of policy objectives / standards / administrative arrangements • Public opinion, and/or • Statistics Danube Basin (ICPDR reports), e.g.: • Risk categories: Organic pollution, Hazardous substances, Nutrient pollution, Hydro-morphological alterations, Flood frequency • Loss of biodiversity / fish stock
Assessment of adaptation tipping points Determine adaptation tipping points: how much change sectors can handle, given the thresholds value (independent from time) Ask: What climate conditions are critical for objectives? What are threshold conditions for reaching objectives (beyond which current strategy fails) Methods: compare with design criteria; consult experts / representatives from different sectors; assess historical variation of boundary conditions. System analysis linking climate conditions to the thresholds. Modelling effect of stepwise increasing climate conditions. Nature goals not reached Inlet fresh water too often too salt (Gouda) Design criteria storm surge barrier exceeded Storm surge barrier closed too frequent for port Sand suppletion fails to meet coastal erosion Energy supply fails due to limits cooling capacity Tulip Norms fields for flood affected levees by not salinity met groundwater Note: Alternative presentation e.g. traffic light bar Tipping points for Rijnmond region (red dots). Green line: no tipping point (Jeuken et al., 2010).
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Assessment of adaptation tipping points<br />
Ask: What are socio-political objectives (non-climate)?<br />
Select indicators <strong>and</strong> threshold values for impacts on sectors &<br />
regions: determine what situation is acceptable according to:<br />
• Analysis of policy objectives / st<strong>and</strong>ards / administrative<br />
arrangements<br />
• Public opinion, <strong>and</strong>/or<br />
• Statistics<br />
Danube Basin (ICPDR reports), e.g.:<br />
• Risk categories:<br />
Organic pollution, Hazardous substances, Nutrient pollution,<br />
Hydro-morphological alterations, Flood frequency<br />
• Loss of biodiversity / fish stock
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