Adaptation Tipping Points and Resilience

Adaptation Tipping Points and
Resilience
Saskia Werners (Wageningen UR, NL)
Stefan Pfenninger (IIASA) & many other colleagues
Main message:
• Start assessment by asking how much change is acceptable
• Assess: thresholds + when/how likely to occur (scenarios)

Experiment

Experiment

Today
Illustrate challenge for climate impact and vulnerability
assessment
Propose for assessment: ‘adaptation tipping points’
Link to resilience discussion & future work
Work in progress: ! your feedback much appreciated !
Amsterdam
Januari 2008

Illustrations – Delta Programme (Long term (2100) water safety,
fresh water supply. Capitalise on opportunities water offers)
Deltacommissioner Wim Kuijken (29 Sept.2010):
One of the biggest challenges is dealing with uncertainties in the
future climate, but also in population, economy and society. This
One requires of the a new biggest way challenges of planning, is dealing which we with call uncertainties adaptive delta in the
future planning. climate, It seeks but also to maximise in population, economy and society. This
requires flexibility; a keeping new way options of planning, open which we call adaptive delta
planning. and avoiding It seeks lock-in. to maximise flexibility; keeping options open
In and the avoiding meantime, lock-in. we prepare In the the meantime, we prepare the so-called
so-called delta decisions delta decisions about the about measures to take if our current water
the system measures reaches to its take limits. if our current
water system reaches its limits.
Base values:
• Solidarity
• Flexibility
• Sustainability

Source: Deltares

Assessment of ‘adaptation tipping points’
Why:
Climate change becomes relevant to policy makers if it threatens current policy
objectives or results in conditions that society perceives as undesirable.
If such a situation is thinkable, next to knowing the extent of the threat, at
least equally important is to know when and how likely it is.
The question is how much longer current policies and management are
expected to suffice and when adjustments will be required. In other words,
when are tipping points in the socio-political system reached?
Adaptation tipping points:
a situation where a socio-political threshold is reached, due to
climate change induced changes in the bio-physical system.
Socio-political thresholds:
• formal policy objectives
• informal societal preferences, willingness to invest/protect cultural identity

Tipping points and adaptation
Korte
Short term
termijn
measures ingrepen
Major Grote Major “Grote
Ingrepen interv. Ingrepen”
intervention
Available robustness and flexibility
Beschikbare robuustheid en flexib. (RO)
Benodigde robuustheid en flexib. (KV)
Robustness
Robuustheid
Flexibility Flexibiliteit
Mitigatie
Required robustness and flexibility
Tipping Omslagpunt Point
Tipping Omslagpunt Point
Time Tijd

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
Ask: What are socio-political objectives (non-climate)?
Select indicators and threshold values for impacts on sectors &
regions: determine what situation is acceptable according to:
• Analysis of policy objectives / standards / administrative
arrangements
• Public opinion, and/or
• Statistics
Danube Basin (ICPDR reports), e.g.:
• Risk categories:
Organic pollution, Hazardous substances, Nutrient pollution,
Hydro-morphological alterations, Flood frequency
• Loss of biodiversity / fish stock

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
Determine adaptation tipping points: how much change sectors can handle,
given the thresholds value (independent from time) Ask: What climate
conditions are critical for objectives? What are threshold conditions
for reaching objectives (beyond which current strategy fails)
Methods: compare with design criteria; consult experts / representatives from
different sectors; assess historical variation of boundary conditions. System
analysis linking climate conditions to the thresholds. Modelling effect of
stepwise increasing climate conditions.
Nature goals not reached
Inlet fresh water too often too salt (Gouda)
Design criteria storm surge barrier exceeded
Storm surge barrier closed too frequent for port
Sand suppletion fails to meet coastal erosion
Energy supply fails due to limits cooling capacity
Tulip Norms fields for flood affected levees by not salinity met groundwater
Note: Alternative presentation e.g.
traffic light bar
Tipping points for Rijnmond region (red dots). Green line: no tipping point (Jeuken et al., 2010).

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
Translate tipping points to timescale: Use existing scenario (eg IPCC, or from
national agencies) to assess when tipping points are likely to occur.
Methods: use climate scenario’s, extreme/moderate (depends on sector);
interpolate between projection year and now; express uncertainty earliest
date/ latest date that climate change will have reached a certain value
Nature goals not reached
Inlet fresh water too often too salt (Gouda)
Design criteria storm surge barrier exceeded
Storm surge barrier closed too frequent for port
Sand suppletion fails to meet coastal erosion
Energy supply fails due to limits cooling capacity
Norms for flood levees not met

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
Determine decision tree & adaptation pathways: Repeat 4 & 5 for these
alternatives + assess how easy it is to switch in time (flexibility/‘no regret’)

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
Determine alternative adaptation strategies: assess how to implement a
different strategy or additional measures to postpone / resolve a tipping
point (methods depend on scale, score these alternatives to policy targets)
Adaptation pathways for the
Theems estuary with
increasing sea level
The blue boxes are
adaptation strategies
(portfolios of option)
The blue arrows show
possibly transitions between
strategies.
In red the various scenarios
(EnvironmentAgency, 2007)

Research objective
The scientific objective is to gain a better understanding of the
role of tipping points in adaptation to climate change and to
elaborate the possibility and consequences of using adaptation
tipping points for the identification of structural properties and
mechanisms that make socio-ecological systems robust and/or
receptive to shocks to external shocks or internal perturbations
The practical objective is to explore whether adaptation tipping
points are a useful concept for assessing and communicating the
implications of climate change, which can help decision makers
in developing and prioritising adaptation strategies
The adaptation tipping point perspective is chosen because it is
appears a timely concept for bringing together concerns /
insights about how much stress a system can absorb before
losing its function and when this is likely to happen.

Central research questions
Can adaptation tipping points be defined in such a way that they
are an appropriate concept for assessing and communicating the
implication of climate change & prioritise adaptation strategies?
If so, how do these adaptation tipping points emerge? And
(how) have the actions of agents contributed to adaptation
tipping points?
How to identify adaptation tipping points?
What are possible responses to adaptation tipping points?
What are consequences of working with adaptation tipping
points for decision support?
When do adaptation tipping points become decision tipping
points, where management of socio-ecological systems shifts?

Conclusions / Experience
Question: Can adaptation tipping points be defined in such a way that
they are appropriate concept for assessing and communicating the
implication of climate change & prioritise adaptation strategies?
• Closer to the question of policy maker/manager/ stakeholder
•
•
•
Allows for dialogue between scientific & policy community.
Expressing uncertainty in time (when will a critical point be
reached) is easier to understand than % change in a certain
projection year
Some times far from trivial
(not the silver bullet) because……

Our water
system is
very
resilient!”

Thanks! & Discussion
Contact: werners@mungo.nl saskia.werners@mungo.nl

Discussion: what you like / dislike about adaptation tipping points
suggestions comments:
- few governments have foresight to be concerned
- real concern about long run problems
- how to measure tipping points & deal with long horizon
- nature of tipping point / threshold not very precise: scale and
- definition: conceptual background?
- change / transformation in policy
- physical / policy proces analysed? what tipping points
- plurality different types of coupled systems. typing points are dynamic in time
- developng country context? tipping points already reached?
- note: tolerable risk community

Extras

Adaptation tipping points
Assess:
• What are socio-political objectives [e.g. in policy docs]?
• Are objectives currently met?
• Are What climate conditions are critical for objectives?
• What are threshold conditions for reaching objectives (tipping
points)
• When are thresholds reached according to various climate
scenarios?
• What are adaptive responses / alternative measures
(Kwadijk, 2010)

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
1. Scoping the assessment: make a long list of possible consequences of
climate change for a region or sectors
2. Prioritise climate change trends and impacts: From long list to short list.
Select impacts based on potential severity and likeliness (e.g. build urgency
matrix (use trends + extreme scenarios))
3. Select indicators and threshold values: determine what effects are
acceptable according to: Analysis of policy objectives / standards /
administrative arrangements, Public opinion, and/or Statistics
4. Determine adaptation tipping points: how much change sectors can
handle, given the thresholds value (independent from time) (e.g. by system
analysis linking climate conditions to the thresholds)
5. Translate tipping points to timescale: Use existing scenario (eg IPCC, or
from national agencies) to assess when tipping points are likely to occur
6. Determine alternative adaptation strategies: assess how to implement a
different strategy or additional measures to postpone / resolve a tipping
point (methods depend on scale, score these alternatives to policy targets)
7. Determine decision tree & adaptation pathways: Repeat 4 & 5 for these
alternatives + assess how easy it is to switch in time (flexibility/‘no regret’)

Assessment of vuln. / adaptation tipping points
1. Scoping the assessment: make a long list of possible consequences of
climate change for a region or sectors
Rows: Effects of climate change + scores of likelihood
Columns: Impacts (on flood safety, fresh water supply, economic activities
(navigation, drinking water, power production)+ scores of severity)

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
2. Prioritise climate change trends and impacts: From long list to short list.
Select impacts, sectors & regions based on potential severity and likeliness
(e.g. build urgency matrix (use trends + extreme scenarios))
When carried out with stakeholders provides commitment
to those issues that need to be addressed

Assessment of adaptation tipping points
6. Determine alternative adaptation strategies: assess how to implement a
different strategy or additional measures to postpone / resolve a tipping
point (methods depend on scale, score these alternatives to policy targets)

Many different approaches

Impact assessment / indicators / IPCC

ClimateAdaptation Atlas: Maps, Traffic light

Storylines & development pathways (PBL)
Semi-urban
Multifunctional semi-urban agriculture Intensive agriculture
Diversify Specialize /
Multifunctional rural agriculture
Large scale agriculture
world market
Rural

Integrale adaptatiestrategieën
Urban
Little competition /
regional market
Strong
competition /
world market
Rural

Adaptation – addressing different drivers

Assessment questions
What do we
adapt to?
How do we
adapt?
Enabling
factors?
Effectiveness
of option?
Climate
adaptation
What do we
want to achieve?
Who adapts?
Whose goal?
After: Preston (2010)

A combination…?

The vulnerability assessment approach
Review of the suitability of existing typologies for
ecosystems, based on:
-EU Habitat and Birds Directives and Natura 2000 data base
-Carpathian Biodiversity Information System
-Land cover data for the Carpathian region
-European and National Forest Inventories
-Pan European Ecological Network (PEEN)
-European Topic Center on Biological Diversity
Selection of the suitable typology for ecosystems for input
into the vulnerability assessment matrix
Vulnerability assessment of the climate change threats for
each ecosystem according to the selected typology