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SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN THE WORLD BY 2050 FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AUTOMOTIVE FUEL
Energy resources for a sustainable electricity supply
Two major parameters with large uncertainty need careful estimation with respect to selection of
energy resources for future electric power supply. The first is the attainable growth rate of the world’s
economies under stresses of globalisation. The second is the rate of technical development of
affordable alternative energy resources for generation of electricity and for replacing the consumption
of petroleum-based fuels for world wide automotive transportation. A key aspect of the latter parameter
as shown in Figure 2 is the time lag of 20-25 years for an alternative-fuel vehicle fleet growing
from inception, even at a rate of 40%/a, to reach a significant fraction of the business-as-usual
petroleum-based vehicle fleet.
Table 5 shows a potential distribution of the three major world energy resources forecast for
generation of electricity (US DOE/EIA, 2008) through 2030. The data show the effect of reduced growth
rate of electricity supply at MAGR of 1.35%/a compared with the EIA forecast of 2.57 %/a. The data also
show the reduction in the forecast fraction of both renewable and nuclear energy for the generation of
electricity compared to the increase in the fraction from fossil fuels.
Table 5: Potential distribution of energy resources for
the world electricity supply and hydrogen fuel, 2010-2050
Forecast supply
Forecast
DOE/EIA* Model Renewables Fossil fuels On-line nuclear
Year (PWh) (PWh) (PWh)* (%) (PWh)* (%) (PWh)* (%)
2005 17.3 – 3.16 (18) 11.53 (67) 2.63 (15)
2010 21.0 21.0 3.70 (18) 14.55 (69) 2.75 (13)
2030 33.3 27.5 5.00 (15) 24.51 (74) 3.76 (11)
MAGR (%/a) 2.57 1.35 1.74 2.95 1.53
2050 n/a 36.0** 18.0 (50) X Y
* Source: DOE/EIA-0484(08), Internet 2008.
** Total demand = 42 PWh, (36 PWh (w/o H 2 fuel) + 6 PWh (w/ H 2 fuel)).
Table 5 shows the estimate of electricity demand carried out to 2050 based on a continued
business-as-usual growth rate to 36 PWh. For production of 160 billion kg of hydrogen fuel, another
6 PWh of electric energy would be required. With the expectation that the world desire for use of
renewable energy resources could result in supplying 50% of the forecast electricity demand by 2050,
the other 50% would have to come from some combination of fossil and nuclear energy, labelled X
and Y in Table 5.
The choice of the values of X and Y, which have long-term consequences, requires consideration
of the conflicting problems of sustainable national economy and world environmental threat. The
economy issues stem from such needs as the increase in electricity supply and the reduction of
petroleum import. The environmental issues stem from such desires as the abatement of global
emission of greenhouse gases and local emission of smog-forming vehicle exhaust.
The time lag for new technology infrastructure ensures that use of fossil fuels for energy generation
and hydrogen fuel cannot go to zero over a short-term period. If 50% of the world electricity supply
can be achieved by 2050 with renewable resources, the need for fossil-fuel combustion (X) can be
reduced by the potential growth of nuclear energy utilisation.
Table 6 lists a potential distribution of energy resources that could achieve a world electricity
supply of 36 PWh by 2050 with X = 0% and Y =50%.
The potential for solar conversion technology is very large with many possible methods to generate
electricity and produce hydrogen as a transportation fuel. One set of methods could generate 3 PWh/a
of electricity by the use of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) arrays on all small residential
buildings. A second set could generate 3 PWh/a with photovoltaic arrays on all factories, non-residential
buildings, and other large structures. The third set could generate 3 PWh/a at solar collector farms by
solar thermal electricity generation stations.
Solar radiation could become the major energy resource for electricity supply in residential
buildings for a world population of 9 billion people by 2050. Generation of 3 PWh/a could be achieved
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