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SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN THE WORLD BY 2050 FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AUTOMOTIVE FUEL
Table 2: Input values in 2005 and 2008 to the HFleet model for 2010
Parameter (units) 2005 value MAGR (%/a) 2008 value
Population (10 9 ) 6.89 1.30 6.87
Vehicle fleet (10 6 )
Light vehicles 537 1.16
Heavy vehicles 264 2.48
Fleet 801 801
Travel distance (10 12 VKT)
Light vehicles 7.81 0.57
Heavy vehicles 2.03 1.30
Fleet 9.84 9.84
Fuel Economy (km/US gal)
Light vehicles 37.5 -0.34
Heavy vehicles 13.3 1.16
Fleet 32.5 32.5
Electricity
Energy demand (PWh) 20.2 2.76 21.0
Installed capacity (TW) 4.19 2.09 4.64
Table 3 lists the results of the model for 2010-2050. Figure 3 shows the business-as-usual (BaU)
growth of the world vehicle fleet at the revised growth rate of 1.0%/a and the potential growth of a
hydrogen fuel-cell fleet at an initial production of 10 000 vehicles in 2010 for MAGR of 20, 30, and
40%/a. Figure 4 shows the concomitant growth of hydrogen fuel (HFuel) required for the vehicle fleet.
Figure 5 shows the growth of total electric energy generation including the production of the
hydrogen fuel requirement as a function of the MAGR of the hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle fleet based on
linear improvement in the conversion efficiency from 50 kWh/kg to 40 kWh/kg by development of
higher-temperature electrolysis.
Table 3: Summary of the world model results, 2010-2050
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
MAGR
(%/a)
HFleet
(10 6 veh)
HFuel
(10 9 kg)
ElecEn
(PWh)
SysCap
(TW)
– 0.01 0.00 0.000 0.000
BaU* 801 – 21.0 4.64
20 0.06 0.02 0.001 0.000
30 0.14 0.03 0.002 0.000
40 0.29 0.07 0.003 0.000
BaU* 885 – 24.0 5.31
20 0.38 0.08 0.003 0.000
30 1.90 0.39 0.017 0.002
40 8.31 1.70 0.076 0.010
BaU* 977 – 27.5 6.07
20 2.37 4.16 0.173 0.002
30 25.7 8.80 0.188 0.025
40 207 36.3 1.51 0.203
BaU* 1080 – 31.4 6.94
20 14.5 2.23 0.869 0.012
30 28.9 44.3 1.73 0.231
40 1046 161 6.26 0.839
BaU* 1192 36.0 7.93
* BaU fleet size and electricity without hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
320 NUCLEAR PRODUCTION OF HYDROGEN – © OECD/NEA 2010