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SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN THE WORLD BY 2050 FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AUTOMOTIVE FUEL
Introduction
The continuous quest for abundant and sustainable electric energy for the growing world population
is evident in the growth of electric energy generation per capita as noted in Figure 1 for the period
from 1980 to 2005 and forecast to 2030. World population grew from 4.453 billion in 1980 to 6.470 billion
in 2005 at a mean annual growth rate (MAGR) of 1.50%/a and is forecast to grow to 8.373 billion by 2030
at a MAGR of 1.03%/a (US Census Bureau, 2008). The data for electricity generation are 8.03 trillion kWh
in 1980 to 17.3 trillion kWh in 2005 at a MAGR of 3.00%/a and forecast to grow to 33.3 trillion kWh by
2030 at a MAGR of 2.57%/a (US DOE/EIA, 2008). Table 1 summarises the growth in world electric energy
intensity (in units of million kWh/cap). The electricity generation per capita is forecast to more than
double over the 50-year period at a MAGR of 1.5%/a.
Figure 1: World energy intensity, 1980-2030
Table 1: World electric energy intensity, 1980-2030
Year
Electric energy Population Intensity
generation (PWh) (billion) (MWh/cap)
1980 8.03 4.45 1.80
2030 33.26 8.37 3.97
Increase 4.1 X 1.9 X 2.2 X
The quest for abundant and sustainable electric energy is hampered by several pressures facing
the world. One of them is the anticipated growth of population by 3 billion people by 2050 at an ever
increasing demand for electric energy as noted in Table 1. A second one is the growth of existing and
new electric-energy-intensive technologies, such as information technology, electronic communication
and homeland security. Another is the world concern about reducing emission of greenhouse gases
from fossil-fuel combustion as it affects global climate. Still another is the apparent need for regulatory
and technical conservation to reduce the consumption of electricity and automotive fuels.
It is also apparent that the exponential growth in electricity consumption per capita cannot be
sustained world wide indefinitely. The economic growth of the world depends strongly on the
availability of electricity and transportation. Therefore, it behooves the world population to use the
most appropriate technologies to seek the optimum mixture of available large-scale energy resources
to provide the most sustainable supply of electricity and transportation fuels.
Appropriate technology
Appropriate technology, as envisioned in the US National Environmental Policy Act signed into law on
1 January 1970, implies use of the most effective resources and technologies that result in the minimum
acceptable impact upon the environment. The world concern about metropolitan air pollution and
global climate change resulting from tailpipe exhaust and greenhouse gas emission suggests a marked
reduction in the combustion of fossil energy resources for generation of electricity and production of
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