Nicola Cantore - Overseas Development Institute

Scenarios of additional climate
finance
Presenter: Dr Nicola Cantore
Research fellow
Overseas Development Institute
n.cantore@odi.org.uk
15/04/2010

Climate finance channels
International public finance
Private capital flows
Domestic climate finance
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Views on additionality
Complete separation between ODA and climate change
related financing
The amount of climate change related aid that can be
reported as ODA should be limited in order to avoid
diversion from “MDG-related” ODA
All donor support for climate change should be reported
as ODA
All ODA targets and commitments should be adjusted
upwards to take account of climate change financing
needs
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Climate finance scenarios
BAU Baseline scenarios (BAU)– ODA at 0.7%
of GNI by 2030
ADD1
ADD2
0.7% of GNI climate finance additional to
traditional ODA + 0.5% of GNI. Funding is
counted as ODA and is provided through
similar disbursements mechanisms
0.7% of GNI climate finance additional to
traditional ODA + USD 67 bn. Funding is
counted as ODA and is provided by similar
disbursements mechanisms
DIVERT
ODA at 0.7% of GNI by 2030 but some US
67 billion taken out of aid to spend on
environmental purposes (and not
“traditional” aid)
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Projections on ODA flows to meet
traditional and climate objectives 2008
US$ billion
ADD1
ODA 0.7% GNP
CF 0.5% GNP
ADD2
ODA 0.7% GNP
CF 67 bn
BAU
ODA
0.7% GDP
DIVERT
Traditional ODA =
0.7% GDP ODA
-US 67 bn on Climate
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The geographical diversion of
ODA
Aid
Adaptation needs
Sub Saharan Africa 0.38 0.22
South Asia 0.18 0.13
East Europe and Central Asia 0.07 0.12
Middle East and North Africa 0.16 0.05
Latin America and Caribbean 0.08 0.22
East Asia and Pacific 0.13 0.26
Total 1.00 1.00
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The sectoral diversion of ODA
Sector
2007 ODA gross
disbursements by sector–
USD billion
Additional spending needed
for adaptation in developing
countries (using World Bank
EACC data), USD billion
Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 4.1 7.6
Water Supply 3.7 13-17
Human health 6.8 1.2
Economic infrastructure and
services 13.6 13-30
Ecosystem protection 0.4 12-22
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The recipient`s perspective
Volume of
finance
Sectoral
distribution of
finance
Geographical
distribution of
finance
Quality of
finance
Climate finance
(0.5% of GNI)
additional to aid
(0.7% of GNI)
Aid at 0.7% of GNI
in part diverted to
climate finance
Large additional
volumes
Aid diverted to
climate finance
causes changing
the composition of
finance
Distribution
according to
adaptation needs
would mean scaling
up of support
especially for water,
but less so for
education, health
and aid for trade
Increases in
resources for water,
but cuts for
education, health
and aid for trade
Distribution
according to
adaptation needs
would mean scaling
up of support
especially for Asia,
Latin America and
less to in Africa
Increases in Asia,
Latin America and
Middle East and
cuts in resources
for Africa
Transfers of up to
700 billion to poor
countries may lead
to crowding out
effects and Dutch
disease, without
innovations in
governance to
counteract its
effects
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The donor`s perspective
Volume of finance
Sectoral
distribution of
finance
Geographical
distribution of
finance
Quality of finance
Climate finance
and aid use same
mechanisms
Difficult to measure
additionality
Donors tend to
emphasise social
sectors rather than
supply side sectors.
Strongly
coordinated, but
issues of speed of
disbursement.
Climate finance
using separate
channels
involving public
transfers
Easy to measure
additionality
compared to
existing aid.
Mechanisms
earmarked for
certain sectors
Fragmentation in
development
assistance and
increase in
transaction costs
Climate finance
through private
channels
Easy to measure
additionality, but
risks in reaching
required aid
volumes when
relying on markets
(e.g. carbon price).
Relative increase in
resources in those
sectors more ready
for private
ownership and
transfers
Relative increases
in resources in
those countries with
better prospects for
investment (e.g. not
in poor countries in
Africa)
Potential issues of
alignment with
public sector
funding, but private
finance may have
larger development
externalities
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Conclusions
Current ODA spending may not cover
future adaptation needs
If current ODA spending level is used
to cover adaption needs there is a
concrete risk of geographical and
sectoral funds diversion.
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Thanks for the attention!!!
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