London Plan 2011 PDF 1 MB - Lambeth Council

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The London Plan July 2011 – RTF version grow from 1.56 million in 2007 to 1.98 million in 2031, representing 38 per cent of the new jobs (excluding sectors with falling employment such as manufacturing) projected between now and 2031. Jobs in ‘other services’ (leisure and personal services) are projected to grow by 360,000 (about a third of projected new jobs), and those in hotels and restaurants are set to grow by 235,000 (about a fifth of new jobs). Other sectors where growth might be expected include health and education, which could see around 54,000 more jobs and retail (36,000 new jobs). We can also expect changes to the way London works, as firms adjust to the imperatives of climate change and make more use of information and communications technology. Figure 1.5 shows these projections in the context of change since 1971: [Figure 1.5 Employment projections 2008-31 and historic data 1971- 2007] [Map 1.2 Distribution of employment growth 2007-2031] Table 1.1 Employment projections 2007-2031 by borough Adjusted triangulated forecasts 2007 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 growth 2007- 2031 Barking 51 51 52 52 54 56 10.0% Barnet 134 136 140 139 145 150 12.1% Bexley 75 74 74 73 76 79 5.2% Brent 110 112 116 115 119 124 12.0% Bromley 131 129 129 128 132 137 4.9% Camden 290 307 326 340 350 361 24.5% City 339 373 401 423 428 435 28.1% Croydon 150 146 145 144 149 155 3.5% Ealing 139 137 138 143 148 154 10.8% Enfield 110 109 111 113 118 121 10.1% Greenwich 80 80 80 81 85 87 8.6% Hackney 92 95 98 104 107 111 20.8% Hammersmith 132 139 149 166 173 178 35.7% Haringey 85 87 89 92 95 98 15.5% Harrow 82 82 83 82 86 88 7.6% Havering 85 83 82 83 87 89 5.4% Hillingdon 203 201 202 202 210 217 7.0% Hounslow 134 130 129 129 133 138 3.4% Islington 193 205 220 233 238 241 25.2% Kensington 129 131 138 148 151 153 18.8% Kingston 87 85 83 83 86 89 2.9% Lambeth 136 138 141 143 148 154 12.8% Lewisham 76 77 77 77 80 83 9.0% Merton 81 83 83 84 86 87 7.5% Newham 83 88 94 100 103 107 29.8% Redbridge 76 74 73 75 79 81 6.3% Richmond 92 90 88 87 91 95 2.7% Southwark 217 241 246 255 264 275 26.5% Sutton 73 72 72 71 74 77 5.7% Page 20 of 310
The London Plan July 2011 – RTF version Tower Hamlets 206 227 251 279 290 301 46.4% Waltham Forest 68 68 67 68 70 73 6.3% Wandsworth 127 126 127 127 131 136 7.0% Westminster 610 624 646 674 696 720 17.9% Total 4,676 4,797 4,953 5,114 5,280 5,452 16.6% 1.25 Where in London are these jobs likely to be? Employment has grown fastest in central and inner areas of London – unsurprisingly given that financial services and those business services strongly related to it tend to concentrate there, while sectors with lower levels of growth or declines tend to be more dispersed. There has been particularly strong growth in inner London. The trend towards a comparatively lower level of employment growth in outer London, despite it being where the majority of Londoners live, suggests that this part of the capital might not be realising its full potential to contribute to London’s success. Map 1.2 and Table 1.1 shows the location of projected employment growth over the period of this Plan. Persistent problems of poverty and disadvantage 1.26 Although London’s economy has been generally successful over the past twenty years, not everyone has benefited and the incidence of poverty has not fallen. Income poverty rates for children, working age adults and pensioners are higher in London than elsewhere in the UK. A quarter of working age adults and 41 per cent of children are in poverty after housing costs are taken into account. Poverty is particularly concentrated in households with dependent children (working age people without children have poverty rates similar to those in the rest of the country). Deprivation is also concentrated among Black, Asian and ethnic minority and disabled Londoners. 1.27 As a result, London is an increasingly polarised city. On the one hand, it has seen a major growth in earnings, with significant rises both in the number of those earning high salaries, and in the amount they earn. This leaves those on low incomes or without employment further and further behind. This polarisation is associated with a range of social problems of ill-health, substance abuse and crime. 1.28 The labour market, and how individuals fare in it, is of central importance. Households with children in London are much more likely to be workless than childless ones, something reflected in their particular exposure to poverty highlighted earlier. Disabled people are almost twice as likely to be unemployed as non-disabled people. More generally, London has had higher levels of unemployment, and lower levels of employment than other parts of the country. Employment here is increasingly skewed towards occupations needing higher level skills and qualifications given the nature of the sectors in which London specialises. Rising land values have also squeezed out lower value activities. Making sure Londoners can get better access to the jobs in their city will be a key priority at a time when population is likely to grow, but the economy’s growth may be less robust. 1.29 Deprivation tends to be geographically concentrated (see Map 1. 3). Looking at the factors that are brought together in the Government’s Index of Page 21 of 310
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London Plan 2011 PDF 1 MB - Lambeth Council

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