London Plan 2011 PDF 1 MB - Lambeth Council

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The London Plan July 2011 – RTF version [Figure 1.1 Annual population change 1971-2009] 1.7 The reason for the change is that more people of childbearing age have moved to the city, leading to strong natural population growth (the surplus of births over deaths). In 2009, London saw natural growth of 81,000, representing 38 per cent of the natural growth of the population of England and Wales, while having only 14 percent of their total population. 1.8 The other component of population change is migration, whether between London and the rest of the United Kingdom or between here and the rest of the world. London usually sees net out-migration to other (especially neighbouring) UK regions, partly offset by significant net in-migration from overseas. This has been the pattern in five of the past eight years with an overall net migration loss of 82,000 in that period. 1.9 Unless something happens to reverse these now deep-seated trends, London’s population will continue to grow between now and 2031. Is the kind of significant change that would alter these trends likely? • Could something happen that would reduce natural growth? At present, London has two-and-a-half times as many births as deaths. The rise in births since 2001 has slowed in the past two years, but no major decline in annual numbers is expected. The available evidence tends to show that economic downturns do not affect fertility rates significantly. This was confirmed by London’s experience in the 1990s. Policies to decentralise population could be put in place, as in the 1940s, but this would mean steps like building new towns outside London. This does not look likely in the near future. • Could changes to migration outweigh natural growth? It is too early to say what effect the current downturn could have on migration over the whole period to 2031, but some reduction in the net inflow into London from overseas has occurred since 2007. Net inflow to the UK as a whole declined up to the end of 2008, largely as a result of citizens from the ‘A8’ countries in Eastern Europe that acceded to the European Union in 2004 leaving the country. Since then the net inflow to the UK has increased largely as a result of the reluctance of British citizens to move overseas. It also seems clear that in the short term at least, the rate of net outmigration from London to the rest of the UK will remain at a low level. Data to mid-2010 show London bucking the UK trend of reduced mobility and attracting record numbers of incomers from the rest of the country. The duration of these trends, and the extent to which they will revert to previous patterns as the economy improves, will have to be monitored. 1.10 There is cross-party political concern over migration. However, until the results of this are translated into firm evidence of a change in trend, it seems far more likely than not that London will have to plan for a growing population to 2031. The period is likely to see growth from the present level of 7.62 million to: • 7.80 million by 2011 • 8.06 million by 2016 Page 16 of 310
The London Plan July 2011 – RTF version • 8.32 million by 2021; and • 8.57 million by 2026. By 2031 London’s population may be 8.82 million (see Figure 1.2). The projected distribution of population growth by 2031 is shown in Map 1.1. [Figure 1.2 London’s population 1971-2031] [Map 1.1 Distribution of population growth 2006-2031] A changing population 1.11 London’s population will also change in composition. Figure 1.3 compares the age structure of London’s population in 2008 with that projected for 2031. It will continue to be younger than elsewhere in England and Wales – there will be more school age Londoners in 2026 and 2031 and more aged 35–74. The number of people over 65 is projected to increase by 34 per cent (nearly 300,000) to reach 1.17 million by 2031. The over 90s are expected to almost double in number, to 96,000, as medical advances, improvements in lifestyles and new technologies support improved life expectancies. We will have to plan for the schools and other facilities needed by a more young people, while also addressing the needs of an ageing population. [Figure 1.3 The age structure of London’s population 2008 2031] 1.12 London’s population will also continue to diversify. Black, Asian and other minority ethnic communities are expected to grow strongly as a result of natural growth and continued migration from overseas. By 2031, an additional six London boroughs are likely to have a majority of their population from these groups, with Harrow, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets, Ealing, Hounslow and Croydon joining Brent and Newham which have had such majorities since 2001. 1.13 On the basis that around 10 per cent of Londoners will have some kind of disability or sensory impairment, there are likely to be more people in London who have particular mobility, access and other support needs. Ensuring London and its infrastructure is accessible and inclusive will have to be a key theme of the new London Plan. 1.14 The number of economically Londoners (aged16 - 74) is projected to increase from 3.9 million In 2006 to 4.1 million In 2011 and 4.6 million in 2031 – an increase of 690,000 over the period as a whole. More households 1.15 Population growth of this order will tend to mean more households. Social trends will also play a part. The period to 2031 is likely to see a decrease in the number of married couples, more than offset by increase in cohabiting couples. There is also likely to be a large increase in one person households, particularly among middle-aged people, and in lone parent and other multiadult but non-family based households. These trends mean we will have to Page 17 of 310
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London Plan 2011 PDF 1 MB - Lambeth Council

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