Annual Report 2004

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Economic Growth in the Euro Area and in Austria Annual change in real GDP in % 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 –1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Euro area Austria Source: WIFO, Eurostat. In the second half of the review year, three key factors influenced cyclical developments: World economic growth lost some speed, oil prices surged further to top USD 50 per barrel (Brent) in the summer of 2004, and the euro continued to appreciate, especially in the fourth quarter. Available indicators increasingly confirmed that oil price developments were dampening growth in the euro area and beyond. As a result, 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Crude Oil Price Developments (Brent) 2003 USD/barrel EUR/barrel Source: Thomson Financial. 2004 2005 HICP-Inflation in the Euro Area and in Austria Annual change in the HICP in % 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Euro area Austria Source: Eurostat. euro area quarter-on-quarter growth contracted to just 0.3% in the third and0.2%inthefourthquarter.In view of these developments, forecasters revised their outlooks for growth downward; the EurosystemÕs economic projections of December 2004 pegged the expansion of real GDP at 1.4% to 2.4% in 2005 and 1.7% to 2.7% in 2006. The experts underlined the downside risks of oil prices for economic activity. U.S. Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 The Eurosystem Secures Price Stability 1.00 2003 2004 Source: Thomson Financial. Upswing slows noticeably in the second half of 2004 Annual Report 2004 × 19 2005 2005
The Eurosystem Secures Price Stability M3 Growth in the Euro Area Annual change in % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1999 M3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Three-month moving average Source: ECB. Oil prices fuel inflation M3 growth sags at the beginning of 2004, quickens from mid-2004 In the second half of 2004, inflation came in at over 2% every month. The contribution of the component energy to inflation widened from 0.5 percentage point at mid-year to 0.8 percentage point in October 2004. However, no price pressures emanated from developments within the euro area itself, as wage increases were still moderate and as the oil price rise had not produced secondround effects; moreover, given dampened growth, this pattern was expected to persist. Against this background, the EurosystemÕs inflation projections of December 2004 put Euro Area Credit Growth Annual change in % 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total lending Loans to the private sector Source: ECB. inflation at between 1.5% and 2.5% for 2005 and at 1.0% to 2.2% for 2006. TheexpansionofM3slowedfrom 6.5% at the beginning of 2004 to 4.9% in May 2004, reflecting above all the normalization of investorsÕ marked preference for liquid assets as a result of their cautiousness from 2001 through 2003. Economic agents regained market confidence and began to reinvest in longer-term and riskier assets. On the back of low interest rates, M3 growth reaccelerated from 5.3% in June 2004 to 6.4% in December 2004. The low interest rate level also boosted credit demand, in particular for mortgage loans, which is indicative of the real estate price boom in some euro area countries. In view of these developments, the Governing Council of the ECB cautioned that the stock of excess liquidity and strong credit growth represented not only a risk to price stability, but could also entail anexcessiveriseinassetprices. 20 × Annual Report 2004
Page 1 and 2: √ Oesterreichische Nationalbank S
Page 4 and 5: ˆ Report on the Financial Year 200
Page 6 and 7: In 2004 the global economy expanded
Page 8: Financial Statements of the Oesterr
Page 11 and 12: GeneralCouncil(Generalrat),StateCom
Page 13 and 14: Organization Chart President Herber
Page 16: ˆ Report of the Governing Board (D
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Page 39 and 40: The OeNB as a Competent Partner in
Page 49 and 50: Competition and transparency in cas
Page 51 and 52: Integration of Payment Services in
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Page 69 and 70: The OeNB — An Innovative, Dynamic
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The OeNB — An Innovative, Dynamic
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ˆ Financial Statements of the Oest
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Liabilities December 31, 2004 Decem
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Notes to the Financial Statements 2
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Future market developments, especia
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The strategic measures are compleme
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Development of the OeNBÕs Currency
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SDRs equivalent to EUR 38.831 milli
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4 Claims on non-euro area residents
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such credit is provided not by the
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9.1 Participating interest in the E
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9.2 Claims equivalent to the transf
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Equipment developed as follows: Cos
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11.6 Sundry Sundry assets comprise
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The table below shows the annual av
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11 Items in course of settlement Cl
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13 Provisions Under the OeNBÕs ini
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15 Capital and reserves A summary o
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Notes to the Profit and Loss Accoun
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ance with Article 69 paragraph 1 of
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Governing Board (Direktorium) Gover
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Profit for the Year and Proposed Pr
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ˆ Notes
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x = No data can be indicated techni
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Core inflation: inflation measure t
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Primary balance: government net bor
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Periodical Publications of the Oest
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Artwork All artwork featured in thi
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The Annual Report of the OeNB provi
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Annual Report 2004

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