efsa-opinion-chromium-food-drinking-water

efsa-opinion-chromium-food-drinking-water efsa-opinion-chromium-food-drinking-water

damienvanherp
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16.04.2014 Views

Chromium in food and bottled water LVM E4---- log-logist -- -- logistic -- -- 0.0 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 LVM H2---- 0 2 4 6 8 0.0 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 one-stage -- -- 0.0 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 two-stage -- -- 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 Weibull -- -- 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 log-prob -- -- 0.0 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 gamma -- -- 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 probit -- -- 0.0 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 a) Result of PROAST for all models Weibull Model, with BMR of 10% Extra Risk for the BMD and 0.95 Lower Confidence Limit for the BMDL 0.6 Weibull BMD Lower Bound 0.5 0.4 Fraction Affected 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 16:35 01/20 2014 BMDL BMD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 dose b) Result of BMDS when pooling the data of males and female for Weibull model Figure J9: Fit of all models to the dose-response data on the incidence of epithelial carcinoma or adenoma combined in the duodenum, jejunum or ileum in male and female mice combined. Note that the models denoted LVM E2 and H3 are not recommended by EFSA (2009c). EFSA Journal 2014;12(3):3595 238

Chromium in food and bottled water The BMD calculations for epithelial carcinoma or adenoma in the duodenum, jejunum or ileum in male and female mice were based on the number of animals initially in study (n = 50; see Witt at al., 2013). A sensitivity analysis showed no difference when accounting for early death and drop put as reported by NTP ( BMDL 10 = 0.99) and a slight decrease when accounting for intercurrent mortality based on the method used by NTP for the poly –k test (BMDL 10 = 0.89). When considering the terminal incidences only as reported by NTP the BMDL 10 was obtained as 0.79 mg/kg b.w. per day. Table J10: Epithelial carcinoma in the duodenum, jejunum or ileum carcinoma in male mice. The benchmark dose (BMD 10 ) and the 95 % benchmark dose lower confidence limit (BMDL 10 ) values are given for a BMR of 10 % extra risk with characteristics of the model fit. The model with lowest BMDL 10 is highlighted in bold. Models Restriction N of parameters Minus Loglikelihood P- value Accepted BMD 10 (mg/kg b.w. per day) BMDL 10 (mg/kg b.w. per day) Full model na 5 40.90 – – – – Null (reduced) model na 1 45.11 - - - - Probit na 2 42.42 0.39 yes 6.26 4.35 LogProbit none 2 41.41 0.79 yes 7.54 2.53 Logistic na 2 42.47 0.37 yes 6.28 4.53 LogLogistic none 2 41.38 0.81 yes 7.03 2.61 Quantal-Linear na 2 42.09 0.50 yes 5.89 3.05 Multistage Cancer na 2 42.09 0.50 yes 5.89 3.05 Multistage yes 2 41.86 0.38 yes 5.89 3.05 Weibull none 2 41.38 0.81 yes 6.94 2.63 Gamma none 2 41.36 0.81 yes 6.87 2.65 na: not applicable; b.w.: body weight. LogProbit LogProbit Model with 0.95 Confidence Level 0.2 Fraction Affected 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 16:47 06/11 2013 BMDL 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 dose BMD Figure J10: Fit of the logprobit model to the dose-response data on epithelial carcinoma in the duodenum, jejunum or ileum in male mice EFSA Journal 2014;12(3):3595 239

Chromium in <strong>food</strong> and bottled <strong>water</strong><br />

LVM E4----<br />

log-logist -- --<br />

logistic -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

LVM H2----<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

one-stage -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

two-stage -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

Weibull -- --<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

log-prob -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

gamma -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

probit -- --<br />

0.0 0.3<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

0 2 4 6 8<br />

a) Result of PROAST for all models<br />

Weibull Model, with BMR of 10% Extra Risk for the BMD and 0.95 Lower Confidence Limit for the BMDL<br />

0.6<br />

Weibull<br />

BMD Lower Bound<br />

0.5<br />

0.4<br />

Fraction Affected<br />

0.3<br />

0.2<br />

0.1<br />

0<br />

16:35 01/20 2014<br />

BMDL BMD<br />

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9<br />

dose<br />

b) Result of BMDS when pooling the data of males and female for Weibull model<br />

Figure J9: Fit of all models to the dose-response data on the incidence of epithelial carcinoma or<br />

adenoma combined in the duodenum, jejunum or ileum in male and female mice combined. Note that<br />

the models denoted LVM E2 and H3 are not recommended by EFSA (2009c).<br />

EFSA Journal 2014;12(3):3595 238

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