Renewable energy - NorRen

Renewable energy; 

global status and trends 

6 August 2012 at NorRen Summer School 2012, Asker 

Mr. Øivind Johansen, MPE 

Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

What is renewable energy? 

The definition set by the International 

Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA): 

the term "renewable energy" means all forms of energy 

produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner, 

which include, inter alia: 

1. bioenergy; 

2. geothermal energy; 

3. hydropower; 

4. ocean energy, including inter alia tidal, wave and ocean 

thermal energy; 

5. solar energy; and 

6. wind energy. www.irena.org 

2 

Olje- og energidepartementet | regjeringen.no/oed

Why develop renewable energy? 

• Energy access = development ( e.g. Norway) 

2,6 Billion people still employed traditional cookstoves and open 

fires for heating and cooking in 2011. 1,6 Bn without electricity 

• Available almost everywhere and is renewable 

• Domestic energy source = energy security 

• Reduction of (costly) imported fuel 

• Clean source without GHG emissions and 

pollution= 

environmental and health benefits 

• Can be developed in small scale and decentralized 

• Low risk of (severe) accidents 

• Job creation 

3 


And why not? 

• Costs are often still high (to reach grid parity) 

• Long lead times for some sources 

• Public opposition 

• Lack of grid connection 

• Political uncertainties, re support schemes 

• Intermittent sources, except hydro with storage 

4 


About REN21 

• Multi-stakeholder Policy Network grouping: 

• National governments: Brazil, Germany, Denmark, UK, Spain, Norway, 

India, UAE, US, Uganda, Morocco, etc. 

• International organisations: EC, IEA, IRENA, UNEP, UNIDO, UNDP, ADB, GEF, 

etc. 

• Industry associations: RENAlliance (WWEA, WBA, IGA, ISES, IHA), ARE, 

GWEC, EREC, etc. 

• Science & Academia: SANEDI, IIASA, TERI, etc. 

• NGOs: WWF, Greenpeace, ICLEI, CURES, WRI, etc. 

• Objective: enable a rapid global transition to renewable energy 

• REN21 Secretariat based at UNEP in Paris/France 


www.ren21.net 

6 


Renewable Energy in the World 

Click to edit Master title style 

Click to edit Master subtitle style 

• RE supplied an estimated 17% of global final energy consumption 

• UN Secretary General’s goal : doubling the share of renewable energy in the 

global energy mix by 2030 

• Renewable energy continued to grow strongly despite policy uncertainty 

in some countries, the geography of renewables is expanding as prices 

fall and policies spread 

8/3/2012 7 


Norway’s share of renewable energy use 


Electricity Production in Norway 

Hydropower potential as of 01.01.2011 

• Installed capacity 30 000 MW 

• Production in 2009: 133 TWh 

• Sixth largest hydropower 

producer in the World 

• 96-97 % of electricity 

production from hydro power 

Under construction; 

1,1 TWh 

License given; 2,4 

TWh 

License applied; 7,1 

TWh 

New generation 

options less 10 MW; 

15,6 TWh 

New generation 

options over 10 MW; 

6,8 TWh 

Protected 

watercourses; 48,6 

TWh 

Developed; 124,4 

TWh 

Mean annual generation capacity: 206,0 TWh 

• Roughly 50 % of the reservoir 

capacity in Europe 

• Statkraft is Europe’s largest 

producer of renewable energy 

Source: Statkrft 

9 


Global Market Overview – Power Markets 

• Renewables accounted for nearly 

half of the estimated 208 GW of new 

power capacity installed in 2011 


• Renewable power capacity 

worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) 

in 2011. (Norway has 30 GW in total) 


• Renewable energy comprised more 

than 25% of global power 

generation capacity 

• 20.3% of global electricity was 

produced from renewable energy 

8/3/2012 10 


New annual power capacity added in EU in 2011: 

71, 3 % renewable based 

• 47% of all new EU electrical capacity came 

from PV 

Source: EWEA 




• 25 GW of new 

capacity was added in 

2011, increasing 

capacity by nearly 

3%, bringing installed 

capacity to 970 GW 

• Globally hydropower 

generated 3 400 TWh 

of electricity in 2011. 

China alone produced 

663 TWh followed by 

Brazil (450TWh) 

8/3/2012 12 


World’s realistic hydropower potential developed: ~ 1/3 

Realistic potential production: ~ 8600 TWh/y 

69% 

75% 

22% 

33% 

7% 

~70% 

13 

Norwegian Source: Ministry World Atlas of Petroleum of Hydropower and & Energy Dams, 2002

Solar Power 

• 30 GW of new solar PV capacity was 

installed in 2011 

• Solar PV capacity in operation in 2011 is 

about ten times the global total in 2006 


• Size of global PV industry exceeds USD 100 

billion per year. 


8/3/2012 14 


• In 2011, 40 GW of wind power 

capacity was installed, increasing 

the total to 238 GW. 

• Annual growth rate of cumulative 

wind power capacity between 

2006-2010 averaged at 26 % 


• The EU presented 23 % of the 

global market and accounted for 41 

% of total wind power capacity, 

down from 51 % in 2007. 


8/3/2012 15 


Biomass Energy 

• Biomass energy 

accounted for over 10% 

of global primary energy 

supply in 2011 

• The present global 

demand for biomass is 

53EJ, mainly used for 

heating, cooking and 

industrial applications 

• Liquid biofuels 

production grew rapidly 

at 17% for ethanol and 

27% for biodiesel 

• Europe is the largest 

market for pellets, 

biodiesel and biogas 


Geothermal Energy 

• 205 TWh (738PJ) of district heat 

and electricity was provided by 

geothermal resources in 2011 

• Heat output from geothermal 

sources grew at 100 % p.a. from 

2005-2010; reaching 489 PJ in 

2011 


• China led in direct geothermal 

energy use in 2010, followed by 

the United States, Sweden, 

Turkey, Japan and Iceland. 


• Geothermal power became 

more attractive due to flexibility 

offered by new technologies 

such as flash plants combined 

with binary bottoming cycles for 

increased efficiency. 

8/3/2012 17 


Industry Trends 

c 

• RE industry saw continued growth in manufacturing, sales and installation 

• Cost reductions (especially in PV and onshore wind) contributed to growth 

• Changing policy landscape in many countries industry uncertainties, 

declining policy support, international financial crisis and barriers to trade 

• Trends: 


• Diversification in to new markets 

• Industry consolidation 

• Emergence of increasingly vertically integrated supply chains 

• Manufacturers expanding into project development 


• Worldwide jobs in renewable energy industries exceeded 5 million in 2011; 

clustered primarily in bio energy and solar hot water industries. 

8/3/2012 18 


RE costs have declined in the past and further 

declines can be expected in the future. 

19 

Source: 

IPCC/SRREN 


Technical Advancements: For instance growth in 

size of typical commercial wind turbines. 

20 


Investments 

• Total global investment in RE jumped in 

2011 to a record of $257 Billion, up 17% 

from 2010 

• This is 6 times the level of investment in 

2004 and 94% more than the total 

Click to edit Master 

investment 

title 

in RE in 2007 

style 

• Total investment exceeds 

• $ 267 billion including estimated 

$10 billion (unreported) invested 

Click to edit Master subtitle in solar hot water style 

Source: UNEP/Bloomberg: Global Trends in Renewable Energy 

Investment 2011 

• ~$ 282 billion including the $25 

billion invested in large 

hydropower (>50 MW) 

• Despite the rise in investment, the rate 

of growth of investment was below the 

37% rise in investment from 2009 to 

2010. 

8/3/2012 21 


Investment Flows 

• Top 5 countries for total investment in 2011 

were China, USA, Germany, Italy and India. 

• Investment in RE in China went up by 17% in 

2011 

• Investment in RE in USA made a significant 

leap of 57% in 2011. 

• Investment in Germany (excluding R&D) 

dipped 12% from the 2010 levels 

• Investment in RE in India went up by 62% in 

2011 


Policy Landscape 

• Targets in at least 

118 countries up 

from the 96 reported 

in previous year; 

more than half are 

developing 

countries. 



• Some setbacks 

resulting from a lack 

of long-term policy 

certainty and stability 

in many countries 

8/3/2012 23 


Policy Landscape cont.. 

• Renewable power generation 

policies remain the most 

common type of support policy; 

Feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and 

renewable portfolio standards 

(RPS) are the most commonly 

instruments. 



• FIT policies were in place in at 

least 65 countries and 27 states 

worldwide by early 2012. 

• Policies to promote renewable 

heating and cooling expanded. 

8/3/2012 24 


EU’s RES Directive (2009/28/EF) 

• A target of increasing the share of RE from 8,5 to 20 

per cent of EU’s total energy consumption in 2020. 

• Norway has agreed to a target of 67,5 % in 2020. (Up 

from ca 60 % today) 

• Norway’s target is the highest in Europe. 

Foto: NVE 

25 


The Norwegian – Swedish Electricity 

Certificates Market 

• Joint between Norway and Sweden; first ever cross-border 

support system for RE 

• In force 1 January 2012 

• Target of 26,4 TWh in 2020 

• Agreement through 2035 

• Financed 50/50 by the two countries, independent of where 

the new production may come 

• Technology neutral system 

26 


Possible projects in the certificate system 

27 


The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy 

Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) 

jo 

http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/ 


The current global energy system is fossil fuel dominated 

29 

Source: IPCC/SRREN 


RE growth has increased rapidly in recent years 

30 

140 GW of new RE 

power plant 

capacity was built in 

2008-2009. 

This equals 47% of 

all power plants 

built during that 

period. 


31 

Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies are, in general, 

considerably lower than those of fossil fuel options. 

Source: IPCC/SRREN 


RE costs are in many cases still higher than existing energy 

prices but in various settings RE is already competitive 

32 


Power trade as enabler for RE development 

Norway’s hydropower storage 

capacity may enable integration of 

more variable RE production into the 

European power system 

Hydropower 

Hydropower 

Hydropower 

Thermal/ 

nuclear 

Thermal/ 

Nuclear 

LESS 

WIND 

Thermal/wind 

MORE 

WIND 

33 


Strong growth in intermittent energy sources 

EU 2009 2020 

Wind 76.000 MW 180 – 230.000 MW 

PV 16.000 MW 150.000 MW 

Location of important flexible 

renewable hydro generation 

Germany 2009 2020 

Wind 26.000 MW 46.000 MW 

PV 10.000 MW 52.000 MW 

Sources: EurObservEr,;European Commission 

EREC; EWEA, EPIA 


Intermittent wind -> flexible water 

Growth in renewables: 

– Much can not be regulated 

– Transborder exchange 

Opportunities for Norwegian hydro: 

– Increased value of peak power 

– May complement offshore windpower 

Important for continental Europe: 

- More climate-friendly way of 

balancing the load and grid 

- Better utilisation of the system 

But also challenges 

35 


Issues for further RE development 

• Great opportunities for industrial development! 

• Prices decided by the market – grid parity 

• Licensing processes take time 

• Bottlenecks among supply industry, constructors 

and consultants (= price driver?) 

• Grid development and public perception 

• In Norway; booming petroleum sector = 

competition for human and industrial resources 


Challenges for the future development- 

NIMBY…… 

37 


Thank you! 

jj@oed.dep.no 

38

Renewable energy - NorRen

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?