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Pricing the Bundle: Factors that Drive Payment<br />

Bundles<br />

Progression of R 2 Value with Addition of Variables in Model A, Model B, and Model C<br />

All MS-DRGs (Number of Observations = 1,292,352)<br />

Regression Model Variables Cumulative R 2 *<br />

MS-DRG 0.511<br />

Age, Sex, Race 0.514<br />

Chronic Conditions 0.528<br />

Model A<br />

HCC Count 0.534<br />

Functional Ability and Live Alone 0.647<br />

Model B<br />

= Contribution to<br />

Explained Variance<br />

Dual Eligibility 0.647<br />

IME, DSH, Index Outlier Payment 0.669<br />

Look Back CCU, ICU, and Episode Death 0.669<br />

Region 0.669<br />

Rural 0.669<br />

Bed Size 0.670<br />

Unique Physician Count 0.762<br />

Model C First PAC 0.781<br />

Source: Dobson | DaVanzo Analysis, 30-day episodes , 2007-2009 5% Medicare claims, no outlier model applied<br />

* The adjusted-R 2¸ which accounts for degrees of freedom, was nearly identical to the R 2 values presented and follows<br />

the same trend.<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

2012 AAMC Annual Meeting

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