Solar Storm Threat Analysis - Impact

Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek
Figure 1 attempts to answer the above
question. Using proxy data derived from
nitrate spikes in ice cores on Earth and data
derived from moon rocks, the figure
compares the size of a solar storm (based on
the fluence of high-energy nuclear particles)
with the probability of such an event.
Fluence is a measure of flux rate covering
the complete timeline of a solar storm event.
[As an analogy, fluence would be similar to
the amount of rainfall during a rainstorm,
where flux rate would be similar to the
amount of rainfall per hour.] The diamond
symbol closest to the middle of the graph is
the fluence from the Carrington solar storm
of 1859. The data point on the lowest right
portion of the graph is the largest event
measured using Aluminum and Beryllium
dating from moon rocks. The graph implies
that solar storms with a fluence a million
time greater than the Carrington solar storm
are possible on a scale of approximately
once every million years.
SPEs in solar storms leave behind a nitrate
signature in Polar and Greenland ice cores.
Figure 1. Estimate of the magnitude and
probability of solar storms based on direct observation
from satellites, nitrate spikes in Earth’s ice cores and
analysis of inducted radioactivity in moon rocks. 8
But the burst of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) from a nearby supernova also leaves behind a nitrate spike in the ice
cores. These two types of signatures are distinct in the ice cores because supernovas produce nitrate spikes of
greater intensity and width (time duration). The induced radioactivity in moon rocks could be caused by SPEs or by
nearby supernovas. It is my opinion that nearby supernovas (within 2,000 light years from Earth) predominate
moon rock signatures and that the sun is fairly limited in its peak intensity range.
C. Analysis Structure
An outline of solar storm effects analysis is provided below with a detailed discussion following.
• Induced Currents
o Extensive Power Plant Outages
� Homes
� Transportation
� Banking
� Commerce and Industry
� Other Impacts
o Oil and Gas Pipelines
o Long Distant Communication Lines
• Geomagnetic Field Distortion
o Transient Distortions
o Magnetic Pulses
• Nuclear Radiation Exposure
o Individuals
� Scope of Threat to Humans
o Spacecraft Electronics
o Air and Ground Based Electronics
• Ionospheric Reflectivity and Scintillation
o Communications
o Radar
o Navigation
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