Solar Storm Threat Analysis - Impact

Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek
The severity of a geomagnetic storm depends on the orientation of Earth's magnetic field in relation to the solar
storm magnetic orientation. If the particle cloud has a southward directed magnetic field it will be severe, while if
northward the effects are minimized.
A CME can produce the following affects: electrostatic spacecraft charging, shifting of the Van Allen radiation belt,
spacetrack errors, launch trajectory errors, spacecraft payload deployment problems, surveillance radar errors, radio
propagation anomalies, compass alignment errors, electrical power blackouts, oil and gas pipeline corrosion,
communication landline & equipment damage, electrical shock hazard, electrical fires, heart attacks, strokes, and
workplace & traffic accidents.
B. Scope of Solar Storm Threat
Great solar storms occur approximately once per decade. Table 4 lists the great solar storms over the past 150 years.
The largest solar storm ever recorded occurred on 1-2 September 1859. It was the greatest solar storm in the past
450 years. But this still leaves open the question. Could our sun produce an even greater solar storms than the one
observed in September 1859?
.
Date Solar Flare
Intensity
1-2 September 1859 Sept 1 Carrington
White Light Flare [2]
Table 4. Great Solar Storms
Omni-Directional
Solar Proton
Fluence
4
Main CME
Arrival Time
1.88 x 10 10 cm -2 [8] 17 hours
40 minutes [9]
Magnetic Intensity
Disturbance Storm Time
(Dst) (nano-Teslas)
Sept 2 - 1,760 nT [9]
(∆H at Bombay 1,720 nT)
12 October 1859 (∆H at Bombay 980 nT) [9]
4 February 1872 (∆H at Bombay 1,020 nT) [9]
17-18 November 1882 (∆H at Greenwich > 1,090 nT) [9]
30 March 1894 1.11 x 10 10 cm -2 [8]
31 October 1903 (∆H at Potsdam > 950 nT) [9]
25 September 1909 (∆H at Potsdam > 1,500 nT) [9]
13-16 May 1921 (∆H at Potsdam 1,060 nT) [9]
7 July 1928 (∆H at Alibag 780 nT) [9]
16 April 1938 (∆H at Potsdam 1,900 nT) [9]
13 September 1957 Sept 13 - 427 nT [10]
11 February 1958 Feb 11 - 426 nT [10]
13 March 1989 X15 Mar 13/14 - 589 nT [10]
29 October -
5 November 2003
Oct 28 X17.2
Oct 29 X10
Nov 4 X45 [11]
19 hours Oct 29 -353 nT [10]
Oct 30 -383 nT [10]
Nov 5 (missed Earth)
18-21 November 2003 Nov 18 M3.2 [9] Nov 20/21 - 422 nT [10]
Dst is an abbreviation for the Disturbance Storm Time index that measures the strength of the magnetic storm by
averaging the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field.
M-type dwarf stars called “flare stars” have been observed to create massive solar flares that can outshine their stars
by over 1000 times. A two star system called “II Pegasi” produced a stellar flare in 2006 on a scale previously
unimaginable for anything other than a supernova. The flare was a hundred million times more energetic than the
sun’s typical solar flare, releasing the equivalent energy of 50 million trillion nuclear bombs. A solar “superflare”
would cause significant death & destruction to Earth if it was directed towards our planet. But our sun doesn’t fit
these conditions. Our sun is a G-type star. Nor does our sun have a companion star revolving extremely close
around it at distance of only a few stellar radii.