Solar Storm Threat Analysis - Impact

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek VII. Conclusions Most solar storms produce only minor disquieting affects on Earth. Typically one might expect short-term electrical power blackouts, short-lived communication outages, rerouting of aircraft, loss of a few satellites and a beautiful “aurora borealis” in the nights sky from a large solar storm. But as the intensity of a solar storm increases it develops the capacity to create a major disaster on Earth. A Great solar storm has the potential of seriously damaging the North American electrical power grid. The resulting blackout will be focused on the northern tier of states and the East and West coast of the U.S. and throughout Canada. The damaged equipment in the power infrastructure would generally have a replacement lead time of over a year due to its uniqueness. But the scope of the outage will be so great that governments will quickly elevate its repair to the level of a national imperative. As a result, restoration that might normally take over a year will occur in a matter of weeks. Critical elements affected by the blackout will include water, sewage, commerce, industry, banking, transportation, communications, and in the winter, heating. Because modern society relies so heavily on sophisticated technology, a long-term blackout will have a very profound effect on the fabric of society. Many satellites will be destroyed or severely degraded. The loss will primarily target communications. The lead time to construct and replace these assets will be measured in terms of years. A Great solar storm (comparable in size to solar storm of September 1859) will cause an increase in the number of cases of heart attacks, strokes, and cardiac arrest. The scope of this effect will be comparable to a doubling the overall daily death rate for the length of the solar storm (~ 4 days). But expedient medical treatment for individuals affected can substantially reduce this figure. References 1 National Security Space Architecture (NSSA), Space Weather Architecture Study, SWx Impacts by 555WXS, URL: http://www.schnarff.com/SpaceWeather/PDF/Present/Other/Refer/03.pdf [cited 21 June 2007] 2 Stuart Clark, The Sun Kings, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 2007. 3 Odenwald, S., The 23rd Cycle: Learning to live with a stormy star, Columbia University Press, New York, 2000. 4 Trimble, V., M.J. Aschwanden and C.J. Hansen (2007) Astrophysics in 2006, Chapter 2.7, pp. 33-36. 5 Solar Flare, Wikipedia, URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare, [cited 21 June 2007]. 6 Smart, D.F., M.A. Shea, G.A.M. Dreschhoff, H.E. Spence, and L. Kepko, (2005) The frequency distribution of solar proton events: 5 solar cycles and 45 solar cycles, Solar and Space Physics and the Vision of Space Exploration Conference, 16- 20 October 2005. 7 Scherer, K., H. Fichtner, T. Borrmann, J. Beer, L. Desorgher, E. Flukiger, H.-J. Fahr, S.E.S. Ferreira, U.W. Langner, M.S. Potgieter, B. Heber, J. Masarik, N.J. Shaviv and J. Veizer (2006) Interstellar-terrestrial relations: variable cosmic environments, the dynamic heliosphere, and their imprints on terrestrial archives and climate, Space Science Review, Vol. 127, No. 1-4, Chap. 12, December 2006, pp. 327-465, DOI: 10.1007/s11214-006-9126-6. 8 McCracken, K.G., D.F. Smart, M.A. Shea, and G.A.M. Dreschhoff (2001) 400 years of large fluence solar proton events, Proceedings of 27 th ICRC at Hamburg, 8, 2001, pp.3209-3212. 9 Lakhina, G.S., S. Alex, B.T. Tsurutani and W.D. Gonzalez, (2005) Research on historical records of geomagnetic storms, Coronal and Stellar Mass Ejections Proceedings IAU Symposium, No. 226, doi 10.1017S1743921305000074. 10 Final [1957-2003] and Provisional [2004- Apr., 2004] Dst Index, Geomagnetic Storm database at the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, URL: http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/finalprov.html [cited 21 June 2007]. 11 Thomson, N.R., C. J. Rodger, and R. L. Dowden (2004) Ionosphere gives size of greatest solar flare, Geophys Res. Lett., 31, L06803, doi:10.1029/2003GL 019345. 12 Barnes, P.R., D.T. Rizy, B.W. McConnell, F.M. Tesche, E.R. Taylor, jr., (1991) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-6665, Electric Utility Industry Experience with Geomagnetic Disturbances, 25 November 1991. 13 Molinski, T.S., W.E. Feero, B.L. Damsky, (2000) Shielding grids from solar storms, IEEE Spectrum, November 2000, pp 55-60. 14Government of Canada, Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness (2002) Geomagnetic storms – reducing the threat to critical infrastructure in Canada, Threat Analysis TA02-001, 25 April 2002, URL: http://www.solarstorms.org/CanadaPipelines.html [cited 26 July 2007]. 15 Kappenman, J.G., L.J. Zanetti, W.A. Radasky (1997) Geomagnetic storms can threaten electric power grid, American Geophysical Union: Earth in Space, Vol. 9, No. 7, March 1997, pp.9-11. 16 Goldman, M.C. (2003) How one power grid kept lights on, Toronto Star, 8 September 2003, URL: http://www.ontariotenants.ca/electricity/articles/2003/ts-03i08.phtml [cited 14 August 2007]. 28
Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek 17 Stoupel, E., (1999) Effect of geomagnetic activity on cardiovascular parameters, Journal of Clinical and Basic Cardiology, 2, Issue 1, 1999, pp 34-40. 18 Kuleshova, V.P., S.A. Pulinets, E.S. Sazanova, A.M. Kharchenko (1998) Biotropic effects of geomagnetic storms and their seasonal variations, Biofizika, Vol. 46, Issue 5, September - October 2001, pp. 930-934. 19 Ptitsyna, N.G., Y.A. Kopytenko, M.I. Tyasto, E.A. Kopytenko, P.M. Voronov and D.B. Zaitsev (1996) Coronary heart diseases: Assessment of risk associated with work exposure to ultralow-frequency magnetic fields, Bioelectromagnetics, Vol. 17, Issue 6, December 31, 1996. 20 Taboada, R.E.R., P.S. Figueredo and S.S. Figueredo (2004) Geomagnetic activity related to acute myocardial infarctions: Relationship in a reduced population and time interval, Geofisica International, Vol. 43, No. 2, 2004, pp. 265-269. 21 Dorman, L.I. (2005) Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forecasting by online cosmic ray data, Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 23, 2005, pp. 2997-3002. 22 Kay, R.W. (1994) Geomagnetic storms: association with incidence of depression as measured by hospital admission, The British Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 164, March 1994, pp. 403-409. 23 Krivelyova, A., and C. Robotti, (2003) Playing the field: geomagnetic storms and the stock market, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper 2003-5b, October 2003. 24 Newcome, L.R. (2006) Impact of solar storms on high altitude long endurance unmanned aircraft and airship design and operations, Aeronautical Journal, Vol. 110, No. 1111, 2006, pp 623-626. 25 Rogers, M.P. (2007) Radiation therapy, University of Illinois Medical Center at Chicago, URL: http://uimc.discoveryhospital.com/main.php?id=2576 [cited 23 August 2007]. 26 Weber, U., Volumenkonforme Bestrahlung mit Kohlenstoffionen, PhD-Thesis, Universitat Gh Kassel, 1996. 27 Stoupel, E., E.S. Babayev, F.R. Mustafa, E. Abramson, P. Israelevich, and J. Sulkes (2006) Clinical Cosmobiology – Sudden cardiac death and daily / monthly geomagnetic, cosmic ray and solar activity – the Baku study (2003-2005), Sun and Geosphere, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2006, pp. 13-16. 28 Kentucky Death Records / Obituaries, I Dream of Geneology database, URL: http://www.idreamof.com/death/ky.html [cited 11 July 2007]. 29 Dorman, L.I. for EU INTAS-00810 Team (2002) Different space weather effects in malfunctions of the high and low orbital satellites, Advances in Space Research, Vol. 36, No. 12, 2005, pp. 2530-2536, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2004.05.007. 30 Cohen, N., K. Davies (1994), NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, SE-10, Radio Wave Propagation. 31 Barabash, V., S. Kirkwood, A. Feofilov, A. Kutepov (2004) Polar mesosphere summer echoes during the July 2000 solar proton event, Annales Geophysicae, 22, 19 March 2004, pp. 759-771. 32 Degenstein, D.A., N.D. Lloyd, A.E. Bourassa, R.L. Gattinger, E.J. Llewellyn (2005), Observations of mesospheric ozone depletion during the October 28, 2003 solar proton event by OSIRIS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03S11, doi:10.1029/2004GL021521. 33 Marusek, J.A. (2007) Forecasting solar storms in solar cycle 24 & 25, Impact, URL: http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/SolarStormForecast.pdf [cited 31 August 2007]. 29
Page 1 and 2: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Solar
Page 3 and 4: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek 2. So
Page 5 and 6: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Figur
Page 7 and 8: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek can g
Page 9 and 10: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek react
Page 11 and 12: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek The f
Page 13 and 14: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Begin
Page 15 and 16: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Immed
Page 17 and 18: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek 1989,
Page 19 and 20: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek objec
Page 21 and 22: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Some
Page 23 and 24: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek Some
Page 25 and 26: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek In Ma
Page 27: Impact, 2007 James A. Marusek The G

Solar Storm Threat Analysis - Impact

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?