Solar Grade-Silicon, Ingot, Wafer Technology and ... - Displaybank
Solar Grade-Silicon, Ingot, Wafer Technology and ... - Displaybank
Solar Grade-Silicon, Ingot, Wafer Technology and ... - Displaybank
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<strong>Solar</strong> <strong>Grade</strong>-<strong>Silicon</strong>, <strong>Ingot</strong>, <strong>Wafer</strong> <strong>Technology</strong> <strong>and</strong> Market Trend (2008~2012)<br />
6.2. p-Si supply & Dem<strong>and</strong> forecast for solar cell<br />
The solar cell market recorded more than 40% average annual growth rate<br />
from 2007 to 3Q 2008 due to support policies by each nation’s government<br />
<strong>and</strong> the importance of PV business with global recognition in environmental<br />
issues. Such high growth rate resulted in shortages of poly-silicon, a raw<br />
material for crystalline solar cell. The spot price of short-term contract even<br />
went up to US$400/Kg. Numerous companies announce their plans to join the<br />
poly-silicon business which shows high earning rate.<br />
The figure below is data collected by analyzing 80 new entrants including the 7<br />
major global p-Si makers. It forecasts solar grade-silicon supply by three<br />
scenarios. The p-Si supply is projected to exceed dem<strong>and</strong> starting in 2009 <strong>and</strong><br />
record the highest supply surplus in 2010.<br />
However, the large-scale investments by the new entrants are likely to be<br />
delayed due to the global economic slump from 2009 to the first half of 2010. If<br />
the conventional p-Si maker’s production cuts are added here, it may create a<br />
reversed situation of the raw material shortages starting in 2011, after the<br />
supply surplus for a short period of time (2009 to 2010), like Scenario 2.<br />
Hence, the advanced conventional makers focus in product differentiation by<br />
enhancing quality <strong>and</strong> purity. They propel strategies to maintain a stable p-Si<br />
price.<br />
Figure6.2. <strong>Solar</strong> Cell p-Si Dem<strong>and</strong>/Supply Forecast<br />
MW<br />
40,000<br />
35,000<br />
30,000<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
SAMPLE<br />
Cell Dem<strong>and</strong> (MW)<br />
Supply (MW, S1)<br />
Supply (MW, S2: Base)<br />
Supply (MW, S3)<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
0<br />
2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F<br />
All Contents of this report remain the property of <strong>Displaybank</strong><br />
Jan’09