Trends in global CO2 emissions - edgar - Europa
Trends in global CO2 emissions - edgar - Europa
Trends in global CO2 emissions - edgar - Europa
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<br />
data for Ch<strong>in</strong>a may be not symmetrical, but may have a<br />
larger uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty to the low end than to the high end of<br />
the range. From these recent studies on the accuracy of<br />
the data on Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s CO 2<br />
<strong>emissions</strong>, and tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to<br />
account the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> the default coal emission<br />
factors, of the order of 5% or more based on report<strong>in</strong>g by<br />
Annex I countries (Olivier et al., 2010), we conclude that<br />
the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> the EDGAR 4.2 estimate for Ch<strong>in</strong>a is<br />
about 10%, possibly with an asymmetrical range. This<br />
conclusion was also based on subsequent revisions of CO 2<br />
emission estimates made by the IEA.<br />
This year, BP (2012) reported a 9.7% <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> coal<br />
consumption <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a for 2011, which is the same trend<br />
reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
(NBS, 2012). In contrast, last year, there was a large<br />
discrepancy between these data sources: BP (2011)<br />
reported a 10.1% <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> coal consumption <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
for 2010 (<strong>in</strong> energy units), whereas the National Bureau of<br />
Statistics of Ch<strong>in</strong>a reported an <strong>in</strong>crease of 5.9% <strong>in</strong> coal<br />
consumption per tonne. However, we note that the<br />
current BP (2012) report also conta<strong>in</strong>s revised coal<br />
consumption data, which for Ch<strong>in</strong>a show a 6.1% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2010 and which could be <strong>in</strong>dicative of the order of<br />
magnitude of the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong> the statistics.<br />
A1.4 Results<br />
Table A1.1 shows the trends <strong>in</strong> CO 2<br />
<strong>emissions</strong> per region/<br />
country for the 1990–2011 period, as presented <strong>in</strong> Figure<br />
2.1 and Table A1.2 shows the change <strong>in</strong> per capita CO 2<br />
<strong>emissions</strong> for 1990–2011 and of population for a numbers<br />
of countries . These tables and the figures used <strong>in</strong> Figures<br />
2.3 and 2.4 can also be found as spreadsheet on the PBL<br />
website: http://www.compendiumvoordeleefomgev<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
nl/<strong>in</strong>dicatoren/nl0533-Koolstofdioxide-emissie-doorgebruik-van-fossiele-brandstoffen%2C-mondiaal.<br />
html?i=9-20 and on the EDGAR website at JRC: http://<br />
<strong>edgar</strong>.jrc.ec.europa.eu<br />
In conclusion, we estimate the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> our<br />
estimates of total national annual CO 2<br />
<strong>emissions</strong> at 5%<br />
for the United States, EU27, other OECD countries and<br />
India, and at 10% for the Russian Federation, Ch<strong>in</strong>a and<br />
develop<strong>in</strong>g countries with less-developed statistical<br />
systems. These uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties are primarily based on an<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty assessment of the <strong>emissions</strong> from fossil fuel<br />
combustion, s<strong>in</strong>ce these comprise the majority of total<br />
national <strong>emissions</strong>. The more uncerta<strong>in</strong> CO 2<br />
<strong>emissions</strong><br />
from gas flar<strong>in</strong>g and from non-combustion sources <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>dustrial manufactur<strong>in</strong>g do not substantially <strong>in</strong>fluence<br />
the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty regard<strong>in</strong>g total national <strong>emissions</strong>. The<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> the emission trends, however, may be<br />
smaller than the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> annual <strong>emissions</strong>, as<br />
illustrated <strong>in</strong> the trend uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty assessments <strong>in</strong>cluded<br />
<strong>in</strong> the national emission reports submitted to the UNFCCC<br />
(2012), which applied the methods described <strong>in</strong> the IPCC<br />
good practice guidance (IPCC, 2006).<br />
Annexes | 27