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ALCF Science 1 - Argonne National Laboratory

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EARLY SCIENCE PROGRAM<br />

Geophysics<br />

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models<br />

to Improve Ground Motion Estimates<br />

Researchers will use Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)<br />

dynamic rupture simulation software to investigate high-frequency<br />

seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional<br />

breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations,<br />

material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting<br />

and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution<br />

simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g.,<br />

elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat<br />

conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, natural faults<br />

are not planar but instead have roughness that can be approximated<br />

by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations<br />

in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3-D rupture simulations<br />

that couple these processes will provide guidance for constructing<br />

appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion<br />

simulations. SCEC’s CyberShake system can calculate physics-based<br />

(3-D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis<br />

(PSHA) curves for California.<br />

Early <strong>Science</strong> Program<br />

Allocation:<br />

7.5 Million Hours<br />

32<br />

On the next-generation Blue Gene, researchers, will calculate a 1Hz<br />

PSHA hazard map for California using improved rupture models from<br />

our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations. They will calculate this<br />

high-resolution probabilistic seismic hazard map using the technique<br />

developed on the SCEC CyberShake project. This calculation will<br />

be done after integration of an improved pseudo-dynamic rupture<br />

generator into CyberShake system and production of a new and<br />

improved UCERF2.0-based Extended Rupture Forecast (ERF). The<br />

calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results,<br />

including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with<br />

rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram<br />

catalog for thousands of scenario events, and more than 5,000 physicsbased<br />

seismic hazard curves for California.<br />

Contact Thomas Jordan<br />

University of Southern California | tjordan@usc.edu

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