ALCF Science 1 - Argonne National Laboratory
ALCF Science 1 - Argonne National Laboratory
ALCF Science 1 - Argonne National Laboratory
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EARLY SCIENCE PROGRAM<br />
Geophysics<br />
Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models<br />
to Improve Ground Motion Estimates<br />
Researchers will use Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)<br />
dynamic rupture simulation software to investigate high-frequency<br />
seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional<br />
breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations,<br />
material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting<br />
and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution<br />
simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g.,<br />
elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat<br />
conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, natural faults<br />
are not planar but instead have roughness that can be approximated<br />
by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations<br />
in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3-D rupture simulations<br />
that couple these processes will provide guidance for constructing<br />
appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion<br />
simulations. SCEC’s CyberShake system can calculate physics-based<br />
(3-D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis<br />
(PSHA) curves for California.<br />
Early <strong>Science</strong> Program<br />
Allocation:<br />
7.5 Million Hours<br />
32<br />
On the next-generation Blue Gene, researchers, will calculate a 1Hz<br />
PSHA hazard map for California using improved rupture models from<br />
our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations. They will calculate this<br />
high-resolution probabilistic seismic hazard map using the technique<br />
developed on the SCEC CyberShake project. This calculation will<br />
be done after integration of an improved pseudo-dynamic rupture<br />
generator into CyberShake system and production of a new and<br />
improved UCERF2.0-based Extended Rupture Forecast (ERF). The<br />
calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results,<br />
including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with<br />
rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram<br />
catalog for thousands of scenario events, and more than 5,000 physicsbased<br />
seismic hazard curves for California.<br />
Contact Thomas Jordan<br />
University of Southern California | tjordan@usc.edu