ALCF Science 1 - Argonne National Laboratory

DIRECTOR’S DISCRETIONARY
Climate Research
Assessing Future Hurricane Impacts
Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
and the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) are using the
Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) on the ALCF’s Blue Gene/P to
develop improved assessments of impacts from Atlantic hurricanes
over the next several decades.
The NRCM combines the widely used Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Climate System Model
(CCSM). Through this combination, NRCM is able to effectively utilize
both the climate simulation capacity of CCSM and the hurricane
capacity of WRF to provide improved predictions of future hurricane
activity to major societal and industry groups.
Director’s Discretionary
Allocation:
17 Million Hours
14
The work is contributing to a DOE-industry collaboration under the
Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (RPSEA) program,
with emphasis on changing characteristics of hurricanes in the Gulf
of Mexico offshore oil and gas fields. Research to date has indicated
an increase in hurricane intensity through 2050. But this is countered
by the hurricanes being smaller and faster, so that the net damage
potential is predicted to decrease slightly.
“By using the ALCF facility,
the NRCM is able to conduct
the simulations at a very high
resolution (equivalent to today’s
hurricane forecast models) so
that critical details of hurricane
formation, structure, and intensity
can be simulated. This will further
improve the prediction of hurricane
impacts on our critical offshore
energy infrastructure.”
TOA Outgoing Long Wave W m-2
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
A Category 3 hurricane, making landfall along the Gulf Coast in October 2047,
generated by the Nested Regional Climate Model.
Contact James Done
Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America | done@ucar.edu