Hollander presentation - Keele University

The Great Recession,
depopulation and urban planning
in the American Sunbelt
Justin Hollander
Urban + Environmental Policy + Planning
Tufts University

Source: Shrinking Cities Project. Office Oswalt, Tim Rieniets. 2006. Accessed 3/2/07.
http://www.shrinkingcities.com/fileadmin/shrink/downloads/pressebilder/1_World_Map.pdf

Decline of >1% housing units 2/06 – 2/09
Source: USPS residential delivery data (2009)

→ History of the Sunbelt (Worster 1985; Abbot
1981)
→ Housing / Land Use Changes (1990s – 2006)
→ Foreclosure Crisis (Immergluck 2009)
→ Policy/Planning Responses

→ Transect Model for smart growth
It is OK to grow, just preserve ecozone
integrity
→ Reverse Transect Model for smart
decline
It is OK to decline, just preserve ecozone
integrity

1 How has the Sunbelt physically
changed?
2
What would Reverse Transect Planning
look like in the shrinking Sunbelt?

→ U.S. Postal Service dataset
Active residential deliveries for all zip codes,
2/06-2/09
→ Sunbelt cities
Large (100k +) cities within states located
south of 37 th parallel
N=140 cities

→ Descriptive statistics;
→ Correlation analysis with U.S. Census
data;
→ Follow-up ground-truthing through three
case studies (Fresno [CA], Phoenix [AZ],
and Orlando [FL]).

→ Of 140 Sunbelt cities, 26 lost population
from 2006-2008;
→ Among 26 cities, mean loss = 1,660
people (1,603 SD).

CITY STATE JULY ‘08 JUL ‘06 CHANGE ’06-’08
Baton Rouge city Louisiana 223,689 230,369 -6,680
Columbus city Georgia 186,984 191,578 -4,594
Jackson city Mississippi 173,861 177,999 -4,138
Hialeah city Florida 210,542 213,854 -3,312
Long Beach city California 463,789 466,751 -2,962
Pembroke Pines
city
Florida 145,661 148,069 -2,408
Coral Springs city Florida 125,783 128,023 -2,240
St. Petersburg city Florida 245,314 247,515 -2,201
Hollywood city Florida 141,740 143,853 -2,113
Birmingham city Alabama 228,798 230,733 -1,935
Source: US Census Bureau (2009)

→
USPS housing counts from 2006 correlate very
highly with U.S. Census housing counts from
2000 (Pearson’s r =0.97)
→
Among 140 Sunbelt cities, 28 lost housing units
from 2/06-2/09;
→
Among 28 cities, mean loss = 3% of housing
units.

Among 28 shrinking cities, 1,634 valid zip
codes;
1/3 lost housing units, the remainder
gained;
80% of all cities in the study had at least
one zip code that lost housing units.

564 zip codes lost housing units (out of
1,634 total)
They lost, on average 4% of their housing
units (10% SD)

→ Protect and Maintain Properties (carrots
and sticks);
→ Get abandoned properties into a “land
bank” and turn them over to abutters or
repurpose strategically;
→ Relaxed Zoning Ordinance

→ Vacancy is severe and persistent in
Sunbelt cities
→ Local government intervention is
ineffective – focus is on growth
→ Reverse Transect Model suggests
opportunities for managing depopulation

Read more…

Justin Hollander, PhD, AICP
Assistant Professor
Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning
Tufts University
97 Talbot Avenue
Medford, Massachusetts 02155 USA
tel: (617) 627-3394
email: justin.hollander@tufts.edu
http://www.tufts.edu/~jholla03
Twitter: JustinHollander
Acknowledgements: This research was partially supported through the Faculty
Research Award Committee at Tufts University and the Lincoln Institute of Land
Policy. Research assistance was provided by Elizabeth Antin, Dan Zinder, and
Durwood Marshall. The transect diagram was partially developed by Sarah
Spicer and Michelle Moon. Powerpoint design by Paige Mazurek.