KB prezent. angl - Komerční banka

KB prezent. angl - Komerční banka KB prezent. angl - Komerční banka

18.03.2014 Views

016 ➔017 Macroeconomic Development Macroeconomic Development Czech Economy in 2003 In the course of 2003, Czech economic growth accelerated. GDP grew by 2.9%. The main driver of this acceleration was massive household consumption accompanied by a revival in fixed capital formation, observable as of the second quarter of 2003. Consumer demand increased by 5.4%, while investment demand grew by 3.7%. The gradual narrowing of the gap between consumer and investment demand was one of the major achievements of 2003, supporting the long-term sustainability of Czech economic growth. Low inflation, and the rapid growth of real incomes combined with all types of consumer loans, were the main factors behind the strong consumer demand and acceleration in retail trade. The growth in retail sales amounted to 5%. Industry continued its solid growth without any significant fluctuations, the industrial output increasing by 5.8% in 2003. After stagnation in the first half of the year, construction reported double digit growth rates of output from June 2003, and the full-year growth of construction output amounted to 8.9%. The boom in construction was mainly supported by an expected increase in VAT (effective as of January 2004), which speeded up large business and infrastructure projects. Also, the rapid growth in housing, driven by easier access to mortgages and housing loans, was behind the fast increase of output in construction.

In 2003, both imports and exports accelerated, increasing by 8.8% and 9.3%, respectively. The full-year trade deficit in 2003 remained at the same level as in 2002, amounting to CZK 71.2 billion. Considering the acceleration in Czech economic growth in 2003, the stagnating level of the trade deficit is a good sign. In 2003, the average exchange rate of the CZK against the EUR was 31.84 CZK/EUR. Compared to 2002, the average exchange rate weakened by 3.3%. Developments in the CZK to the USD rate were quite different. The CZK appreciated on average by 14% against the USD, and the yearly average stood at 28.23 CZK/USD. The balance of payments in 2003 was roughly balanced: the financial account reported a surplus of CZK 68.7 billion, while the current account deficit amounted to CZK 64.3 billion. The main source of the current account deficit was, again, the income balance CZK (117 billion), which is mainly burdened by the reinvestment of profits from foreign direct investments. After a slight weakening of deflation tendencies in the third quarter of 2003, the last quarter of the year confirmed the resurgence of inflation; the year-on-year headline inflation stood at 1% at the end of 2003. The average consumer price index was only slightly above zero, amounting to 0.1%. Producer prices were in the deflation range until the last quarter of the year, and the year-on-year producer price index stood at 0.9% in December 2003 (almost at the same level as CPI). The twelve-month average declined by 0.3% compared with the 2002 PPI average. In December 2003, the unemployment rate climbed to 10.3%. In the course of 2003, the unemployment rate therefore increased by half a percentage point (up from 9.8% in December 2002). The rate of unemployment is 1.5 percentage points above the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (8.8%). The level of unemployment is high predominantly due to structural factors, especially differences between the structure of vacancies and the skills of the unemployed.

In 2003, both imports and exports accelerated, increasing by 8.8% and 9.3%, respectively. The full-year trade deficit in 2003<br />

remained at the same level as in 2002, amounting to CZK 71.2 billion. Considering the acceleration in Czech economic growth<br />

in 2003, the stagnating level of the trade deficit is a good sign. In 2003, the average exchange rate of the CZK against the<br />

EUR was 31.84 CZK/EUR. Compared to 2002, the average exchange rate weakened by 3.3%. Developments in the CZK to<br />

the USD rate were quite different. The CZK appreciated on average by 14% against the USD, and the yearly average stood at<br />

28.23 CZK/USD. The balance of payments in 2003 was roughly balanced: the financial account reported a surplus of<br />

CZK 68.7 billion, while the current account deficit amounted to CZK 64.3 billion. The main source of the current account<br />

deficit was, again, the income balance CZK (117 billion), which is mainly burdened by the reinvestment of profits from foreign<br />

direct investments.<br />

After a slight weakening of deflation tendencies in the third quarter of 2003, the last quarter of the year confirmed the<br />

resurgence of inflation; the year-on-year headline inflation stood at 1% at the end of 2003. The average consumer price index<br />

was only slightly above zero, amounting to 0.1%. Producer prices were in the deflation range until the last quarter of the year,<br />

and the year-on-year producer price index stood at 0.9% in December 2003 (almost at the same level as CPI). The twelve-month<br />

average declined by 0.3% compared with the 2002 PPI average.<br />

In December 2003, the unemployment rate climbed to 10.3%. In the course of 2003, the unemployment rate therefore<br />

increased by half a percentage point (up from 9.8% in December 2002). The rate of unemployment is 1.5 percentage points<br />

above the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (8.8%). The level of unemployment is high predominantly due to structural<br />

factors, especially differences between the structure of vacancies and the skills of the unemployed.

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