JPMorgan - KASE
JPMorgan - KASE JPMorgan - KASE
Year WTI Crude Oil Price McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. Summary of Price Forecasts January 1, 2002 Brent Crude Oil Price US/Can Exchange Frac. Inflation Forecast Proved Producing Price Forecast (Without QAM Pipeline) (1) Brent/Kumkol Export Price Kumkol Field Differential Price ($/Bbl) (/Bbl) (%) ($/Bbl) ($/Bbl) 2002 20.00 18.50 0.64 2.0 9.32 9.18 2003 20.90 19.40 0.65 2.0 8.76 10.46 2004 21.80 20.30 0.66 2.0 8.66 11.29 2005 22.20 20.70 0.67 2.0 8.48 11.70 2006 22.60 21.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 12.86 2007 23.10 21.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.20 2008 23.60 22.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.53 2009 24.10 22.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.86 2010 24.60 23.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.18 2011 25.10 23.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.51 2012 25.60 24.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.82 2013 26.10 24.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.14 2014 26.60 25.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.45 2015 27.10 25.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.76 2016 27.60 26.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.06 2017 28.20 26.70 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.46 2018 28.80 27.30 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.85 2019 29.40 27.90 0.68 2.0 7.61 17.24 2020 30.00 28.50 0.68 2.0 7.61 17.63 2021 30.60 29.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 18.01 (1) McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes of these forecasts, that there will be no QAM pipeline and accordingly, that all export shipments will be made via the Shymkent refinery. Year Total Proved & P + PA Price Forecast (With QAM Pipeline in mid – 2002) Brent/Kumkol Export Price Differential Kumkol Export Price After Pipeline Fees Kumkol Field Gas Price ($/Bbl) ($/Bbl) ($/Mcf) 2002 9.32 9.18 1.05 2003 7.13 12.13 1.05 2004 7.03 12.99 1.07 2005 6.85 13.43 1.09 2006 5.98 14.63 1.11 2007 5.98 15.00 1.14 2008 5.98 15.37 1.16 2009 5.98 15.73 1.18 2010 5.98 16.09 1.21 2011 5.98 16.45 1.23 2012 5.98 16.81 1.25 2013 5.98 17.16 1.28 2014 5.98 17.52 1.31 2015 5.98 17.86 1.33 2016 5.98 18.21 1.36 2017 5.98 18.65 1.39 2018 5.98 19.09 1.41 2019 5.98 19.53 1.44 2020 5.98 19.96 1.47 2021 5.98 20.39 1.50 Pricing Assumptions: WTI and Brent price forecasts are based on the McDaniel January 1, 2002 price forecast; Brent to Kumkol field differentials and domestic export were estimated by Hurricane; and Kumkol field prices are forecast after deduction of VAT. 66
The following table sets forth a reconciliation of our total proved plus probable reserves before royalties (unrisked) as of January 1, 2002 against such reserves as of January 1, 2001 based on escalating price and cost assumptions: Crude Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Reserves Reconciliation (1) Gas (Bcf) Crude Oil and NGL (Mbbls) Proved Probable Total Proved Probable (2) Total (2) January 1, 2001 ...................... 32 6 38 315,400 172,160 487,560 Production .......................... — — — (36,820) — (36,820) Drilling and revisions to prior estimates . 1 10 11 69,481 (7,906) 61,575 January 1, 2002 ...................... 33 16 49 348,061 164,254 512,315 (1) The reconciliation of reserves is a comparison of the McDaniels evaluation from January 2001 and January 2002 and not the McDaniels January 2001 report updated in May 2001. (2) The estimates of probable reserves utilized in this table are unrisked. See “Business and Properties — Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Operations — Estimates of Proved and Proved Plus Probable Reserves and Present Worth Values.” The following table sets forth a reconciliation of our proved plus probable reserves before royalties (unrisked) by field as of January 1, 2002 against such reserves as of January 1, 2001 based on escalating price and cost assumptions: Kumkol South Kumkol North South Kumkol East Kumkol Qyzylkiya Aryskum Maybulak Akshabulak Nurali Aksai (MMbbls) Reserves at Jan 1, 2001 . . 146.6 95.5 45.1 0.0 28.6 54.2 30.1 67.0 17.0 3.5 487.6 Revisions .............. 9.8 21.5 2.1 11.0 10.2 (25.8) (9.0) 44.1 (6.4) 4.0 61.5 Production ............ (21.6) (5.8) (4.7) (0.2) (1.1) (0.0) (0.3) (3.0) (0.1) (0.0) (36.8) Reserves at Jan 1, 2002 . . 134.8 111.2 42.5 10.8 37.7 28.4 20.8 108.1 10.5 7.5 512.3 Total There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures, including many factors beyond our control. The reserve data presented above represent only estimates. Reservoir engineering is a subjective process of estimating underground accumulations of oil and gas that cannot be measured in an exact manner. The accuracy of any reserve estimate is a function of the quality of available data and of engineering and geological interpretations and judgment. As a result, estimates of different engineers often vary. In addition, results of drilling, testing and production subsequent to the date of an estimate may justify revision of that estimate. Reserve estimates are often different from the quantities of oil and gas that are ultimately recovered. The meaningfulness of reserve estimates is highly dependent on the accuracy of the assumptions on which they were based. In general, the volume of production from our oil and gas properties declines as reserves are depleted. Except to the extent that we conduct successful exploration and development activities or acquire additional properties containing proved reserves, or both, our proved reserves will decline as reserves are produced. 67
- Page 25 and 26: construction of the plant, anticipa
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- Page 73 and 74: are currently five producing wells.
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Year<br />
WTI Crude<br />
Oil Price<br />
McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.<br />
Summary of Price Forecasts<br />
January 1, 2002<br />
Brent Crude<br />
Oil Price<br />
US/Can<br />
Exchange<br />
Frac.<br />
Inflation<br />
Forecast<br />
Proved Producing Price<br />
Forecast (Without QAM<br />
Pipeline) (1)<br />
Brent/Kumkol<br />
Export Price Kumkol Field<br />
Differential Price<br />
($/Bbl) (/Bbl) (%) ($/Bbl) ($/Bbl)<br />
2002 20.00 18.50 0.64 2.0 9.32 9.18<br />
2003 20.90 19.40 0.65 2.0 8.76 10.46<br />
2004 21.80 20.30 0.66 2.0 8.66 11.29<br />
2005 22.20 20.70 0.67 2.0 8.48 11.70<br />
2006 22.60 21.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 12.86<br />
2007 23.10 21.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.20<br />
2008 23.60 22.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.53<br />
2009 24.10 22.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 13.86<br />
2010 24.60 23.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.18<br />
2011 25.10 23.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.51<br />
2012 25.60 24.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 14.82<br />
2013 26.10 24.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.14<br />
2014 26.60 25.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.45<br />
2015 27.10 25.60 0.68 2.0 7.61 15.76<br />
2016 27.60 26.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.06<br />
2017 28.20 26.70 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.46<br />
2018 28.80 27.30 0.68 2.0 7.61 16.85<br />
2019 29.40 27.90 0.68 2.0 7.61 17.24<br />
2020 30.00 28.50 0.68 2.0 7.61 17.63<br />
2021 30.60 29.10 0.68 2.0 7.61 18.01<br />
(1) McDaniel has assumed, for the purposes of these forecasts, that there will be no QAM pipeline and accordingly, that all<br />
export shipments will be made via the Shymkent refinery.<br />
Year<br />
Total Proved & P + PA Price Forecast<br />
(With QAM Pipeline in mid – 2002)<br />
Brent/Kumkol Export<br />
Price Differential<br />
Kumkol Export Price<br />
After Pipeline Fees<br />
Kumkol Field Gas Price<br />
($/Bbl) ($/Bbl) ($/Mcf)<br />
2002 9.32 9.18 1.05<br />
2003 7.13 12.13 1.05<br />
2004 7.03 12.99 1.07<br />
2005 6.85 13.43 1.09<br />
2006 5.98 14.63 1.11<br />
2007 5.98 15.00 1.14<br />
2008 5.98 15.37 1.16<br />
2009 5.98 15.73 1.18<br />
2010 5.98 16.09 1.21<br />
2011 5.98 16.45 1.23<br />
2012 5.98 16.81 1.25<br />
2013 5.98 17.16 1.28<br />
2014 5.98 17.52 1.31<br />
2015 5.98 17.86 1.33<br />
2016 5.98 18.21 1.36<br />
2017 5.98 18.65 1.39<br />
2018 5.98 19.09 1.41<br />
2019 5.98 19.53 1.44<br />
2020 5.98 19.96 1.47<br />
2021 5.98 20.39 1.50<br />
Pricing Assumptions: WTI and Brent price forecasts are based on the McDaniel January 1, 2002 price forecast; Brent to Kumkol<br />
field differentials and domestic export were estimated by Hurricane; and Kumkol field prices are forecast after deduction of VAT.<br />
66
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