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<strong>Global</strong> market review of<br />
automotive turbochargers<br />
and superchargers<br />
– forecasts to 2014<br />
2008 edition
Page i<br />
<strong>Global</strong> market review of automotive<br />
turbochargers and superchargers –<br />
forecasts to 2014<br />
2008 edition<br />
By William Kimberley<br />
May 2008<br />
Published by<br />
Aroq Limited<br />
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Fax: +44 (0)1527 577 423<br />
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© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page ii<br />
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Page iv<br />
Contents<br />
Contents<br />
Single-user licence edition............................................................................................................. ii<br />
Copyright statement.................................................................................................................. ii<br />
Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences............................................... ii<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong> membership........................................................................................................iii<br />
Contents.......................................................................................................................................... iv<br />
List of figures ................................................................................................................................. vi<br />
List of tables .................................................................................................................................. vii<br />
Chapter 1 Executive summary....................................................................................................... 1<br />
Chapter 2 Technical review............................................................................................................ 4<br />
What is the turbocharger?......................................................................................................... 5<br />
The exhaust gas turbocharger.......................................................................................... 5<br />
The mechanically-driven supercharger ............................................................................ 5<br />
The pressure wave supercharger..................................................................................... 6<br />
Turbocharger construction ........................................................................................................ 6<br />
Heat issues ...............................................................................................................................7<br />
Bearing and turbine design ....................................................................................................... 9<br />
Bearing housing design .................................................................................................... 9<br />
Turbine design.................................................................................................................. 9<br />
Multistage supercharging........................................................................................................ 10<br />
Dual-stage turbocharging ............................................................................................... 10<br />
Dual-stage diesel turbocharging .............................................................................. 10<br />
Dual-stage turbocharging and variable turbine geometry........................................ 11<br />
Electronics and control devices .............................................................................................. 12<br />
Micro turbos ............................................................................................................................ 13<br />
Twinchargers........................................................................................................................... 13<br />
Twin-scroll turbochargers........................................................................................................ 15<br />
Turbo speed sensors .............................................................................................................. 15<br />
VGT and VNT/VTG ................................................................................................................. 16<br />
Summary................................................................................................................................. 19<br />
Future developments .............................................................................................................. 19<br />
Chapter 3 Geographical market analysis by region .................................................................. 21<br />
North America ......................................................................................................................... 21<br />
Europe..................................................................................................................................... 30<br />
Japan ...................................................................................................................................... 33<br />
China....................................................................................................................................... 35<br />
India ........................................................................................................................................ 37<br />
The rest of the world ............................................................................................................... 39<br />
Summary................................................................................................................................. 40<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page v<br />
Contents<br />
Chapter 4 Principal suppliers ...................................................................................................... 44<br />
BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions Systems............................................................................... 44<br />
Cummins Turbo Technologies (formerly known as Holset) .................................................... 45<br />
Eaton Corporation................................................................................................................... 46<br />
Honeywell Turbo Technologies............................................................................................... 47<br />
IHI (Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, Ltd).................................................................... 48<br />
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries .................................................................................................... 49<br />
Chapter 5 Other suppliers ............................................................................................................ 50<br />
Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems .................................................................................................. 50<br />
Turbodyne Technologies ........................................................................................................ 50<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page vi<br />
List of figures<br />
List of figures<br />
Figure 1: World oil consumption, 2001-2009 (mb/d)......................................................................... 2<br />
Figure 2: The BorgWarner R2S turbocharger ................................................................................. 11<br />
Figure 3: The VW 1.4-litre TSI engine............................................................................................. 13<br />
Figure 4: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for passenger cars ......................................................... 16<br />
Figure 5: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for CVs........................................................................... 17<br />
Figure 6: Toyota Prius hybrid powertrain ........................................................................................ 22<br />
Figure 7: The Ecoboost................................................................................................................... 27<br />
Figure 8: The Ecoboost 2................................................................................................................ 27<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page vii<br />
List of tables<br />
List of tables<br />
Table 1: Comparison of VW Golf GT 2.0 FSI and 1.4 TSI .............................................................. 14<br />
Table 2: North America demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 29<br />
Table 3: European installation rates for turbochargers in gasoline engines for passenger vehicles,<br />
2008-2014................................................................................................................. 32<br />
Table 4: European demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 33<br />
Table 5: Japanese demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 35<br />
Table 6: Chinese demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 37<br />
Table 7: Indian demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 39<br />
Table 8: <strong>Global</strong> demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and<br />
<strong>com</strong>mercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 43<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 1<br />
Chapter 1 Executive summary<br />
Chapter 1 Executive summary<br />
Background to the global automotive market<br />
Car manufacturers are under pressure as never before. On the one hand,<br />
demand for the car has never been higher with new markets opening up in<br />
China, South Asia, India, Latin America Russia and Eastern Europe offering<br />
untold opportunities but on the other, they are having to address the nearuniversal<br />
worries about climate change, emissions and the worldwide demand<br />
for fuel. While there is some debate about just how much the internal<br />
<strong>com</strong>bustion engine contributes to polluting the environment <strong>com</strong>pared to other<br />
man-made sources, the fact is that they are seen by many governments and<br />
legislative bodies around the world as one of the prime culprits.<br />
These are the short- and medium-term issues that the vehicle manufacturers<br />
are having to address, but there are also some very dark clouds looming on<br />
the horizon that many of the vehiclemakers are acknowledging, even if they<br />
are reluctant to talk about them publicly, and that is the threat of diminishing oil<br />
supply.<br />
OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has forecast that<br />
world energy demand will grow an average xxx% per annum between 2005<br />
and 2030. It expects oil to remain the leading source of energy worldwide<br />
during this 25-year period, with oil’s share of total world energy demand<br />
declining slightly from a current xx% to xxxx%.<br />
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has forecast that oil demand will<br />
rise xxm barrels per day (mb/d) to xxxmb/d by 2030. The US government has<br />
put that figure at xxxmb/d by that time.<br />
Much of this demand is being driven by the increase in global vehicle<br />
production. Over the next quarter-century, it has been estimated that the<br />
emerging markets are going to drive up vehicle production far beyond anything<br />
seen to date. By 2030, total annual global production has been forecast to be<br />
around xxm units with China and India accounting for xxm units and xxm<br />
units respectively. The projected xxxmb/d or xxxmb/d will simply not meet this<br />
level of production. Some estimates have put this figure nearer to xxxmb/d as<br />
the realistic alternative.<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 4<br />
Chapter 2 Technical review<br />
Chapter 2 Technical review<br />
As described in the Bosch <strong><strong>Auto</strong>motive</strong> Handbook, the turbocharger is a<br />
relatively easy and cheap way of optimising the fuel consumption of the<br />
internal <strong>com</strong>bustion engine. The principle behind it is relatively simple although<br />
the technology has be<strong>com</strong>e far more sophisticated and <strong>com</strong>plicated over the<br />
years.<br />
The principle behind the turbocharger is fairly straightforward. The exhaust<br />
gas, which is considered lost or wasted energy, is captured and pushed or<br />
‘blown’ back through the engine by the turbocharger. It therefore has to be<br />
located somewhere close to the cylinder head which brings with it packaging<br />
and heat problems. These disadvantages, together with the extra pipework<br />
required, are generally outweighed by the benefits the device brings.<br />
As a technology, it is not exactly new. A form of turbocharging – supercharging<br />
(the principle of which is fresh air being blown under pressure into the cylinder<br />
head) – has been seen on cars almost since the birth of the car. The most<br />
well-known of them is perhaps the so-called Blower Bentley that raced at Le<br />
Mans in the late 1920s. While not an official Bentley modification, the big,<br />
green racing machine with straps on the bonnet and a large device sticking out<br />
from underneath the radiator encapsulates for many the vintage Bentley.<br />
In the 1980s, the turbocharger was very much in fashion as it was the era of<br />
the turbocharged xxx-litre Formula 1 engines that were able to develop over<br />
xxxxxbhp at their peak. For manufacturers like Renault and BMW which were<br />
participating in Formula 1 at the time, it made marketing sense to have<br />
turbocharged models in their range even if they were not out-and-out<br />
<strong>com</strong>petition cars.<br />
Once the turbocharger was banned from Formula 1 in 1989, the technology fell<br />
from favour, virtually disappearing from the passenger car for a number of<br />
years, and only making a <strong>com</strong>eback on the direct-injection diesel engine.<br />
However, there is a fast-growing trend which is seeing them installed on directinjection<br />
gasoline engines as they offer xxxxx% improvement in fuel<br />
consumption figures and around xx% more torque.<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 21<br />
Chapter 3 Geographical market analysis by region<br />
Chapter 3 Geographical market<br />
analysis by region<br />
North America<br />
The North American market is quite unlike that of anywhere else in the world –<br />
it is the only region where light trucks outsell passenger cars and the dieselpowered<br />
passenger car market is still extremely small despite the <strong>com</strong>bined<br />
marketing might and prestige of the German car manufacturers that have been<br />
pushing the technology.<br />
It is also a region that is in some difficulty. The economic downturn, the credit<br />
squeeze, the falling dollar and the high price of fuel by US consumers’<br />
standards have all had a major impact on every market, including cars and<br />
light trucks. The figure of xxxxxm light vehicles sold in 2007 was down xxx%<br />
from the xxxxxm of a year earlier, and the prospects of it climbing back up look<br />
remote in the near future.<br />
As is the norm in the US, light trucks make up a healthy part of the total sales<br />
mix, accounting for xx% in 2007. Where some other vehicles that <strong>com</strong>prise<br />
this sector, namely sport utility vehicles (SUVs), had already experienced a<br />
downturn, pick-up sales had remained strong but even they are now seeing a<br />
slowdown.<br />
Despite this downturn in light-truck sales, though, they are still expected to<br />
account for xx% of the total market in 2008 and 2009. However, a slightly<br />
smaller market share of a slightly smaller market could mean the loss of xm<br />
sales over this two-year period.<br />
The light-truck market, though, is quite a resilient one and any downturn is<br />
never expected to last too long as these are working vehicles as much as<br />
lifestyle ones and so need to be changed on a regular basis. High gasoline<br />
prices, though, are causing a great deal of pain and as oil is priced in dollars,<br />
and the dollar is falling against other currencies, the high price of a barrel of oil<br />
is unlikely to go down in the region.<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 44<br />
Chapter 4 Principal suppliers<br />
Chapter 4 Principal suppliers<br />
BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions Systems<br />
Headquarters: xxxx Hamlin Road, Auburn Hills, MI 48326, US<br />
Employees: xxxxxx worldwide as of 2007<br />
Locations: xx facilities in xx countries as of 2007<br />
Activities: Headquartered at Auburn Hills, Michigan, US, BorgWarner Inc is<br />
one of the major manufacturers and suppliers of automotive <strong>com</strong>ponents. The<br />
<strong>com</strong>pany serves a majority of global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)<br />
including GM, Ford, Daimler AG, Chrysler, Volkswagen, Renault, BMW and<br />
Fiat. The <strong>com</strong>pany operates through two reportable segments: Engine and<br />
Drivetrain. The Engine segment manufactures a range of <strong>com</strong>ponents<br />
including turbochargers, thermal and emissions systems, chains and timing<br />
systems. The Drivetrain segment manufactures transmission <strong>com</strong>ponents and<br />
torque management products.<br />
2007 sales (BorgWarner): US$xxxxxbn <strong>com</strong>bined worldwide<br />
2007 net earnings (Borg Warner): US$xxxm<br />
The worldwide market for turbochargers in 2007 was xxxxxxxxxx units of which<br />
BorgWarner accounts for xxxxxxxxx or xx% market share. It also has a xx%<br />
market share in the burgeoning gasoline turbocharger market.<br />
BorgWarner Turbo Systems’ turbocharger business accounts for much of the<br />
group’s growth over the past several years, particularly in the European<br />
market. However, there are strong indications that the markets for both turbodiesel<br />
and turbocharged gasoline technology will grow in the rest of the world,<br />
including the US, strongly contributing strongly to the group’s overall growth.<br />
While its variable turbine geometry (VTG) is creating a great deal of interest<br />
from its customers around the world, it is the Regulated 2-Stage (R2S)<br />
turbocharger technology and gasoline turbochargers that are the most<br />
important for the <strong>com</strong>pany.<br />
BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions group also has a facility in Chennai to serve<br />
the engineering, technology, and manufacturing needs of its Indian customers.<br />
SeohanWarner Turbo Systems, a BorgWarner joint venture, has also opened<br />
a production plant in Korea in 2008 which is scheduled to produce up to xm<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 50<br />
Chapter 5 Other suppliers<br />
Chapter 5 Other suppliers<br />
Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems<br />
In April 2008, Bosch and Mahle established Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems, a<br />
50/50 joint venture headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany to manufacture and<br />
market exhaust gas turbochargers. The joint venture partners plan to work<br />
together to develop and manufacture turbochargers for gasoline and diesel<br />
engines, and to market them worldwide. Series production is planned to start<br />
in 2010.<br />
The JV will allow Bosch to offer its advanced injection technologies and Mahle<br />
its know-how on the development and manufacture of high temperatureresistant<br />
turbocharger <strong>com</strong>ponents. In addition, Mahle Powertrain specialises<br />
in the development, design, and application of turbocharged engines. Both<br />
partners in the new joint venture can therefore draw on extensive enginesystems<br />
experience as well as <strong>com</strong>petence in large-scale series production of<br />
ultra-precision <strong>com</strong>ponents in and around the engine.<br />
“This joint venture will now allow us to offer our customers from a single source<br />
a <strong>com</strong>plete product portfolio for reducing fuel consumption and emissions,”<br />
said Dr-Ing Bernd Bohr, chairman of the Bosch <strong><strong>Auto</strong>motive</strong> Group. Prof Dr<br />
Heinz Junker, chairman of the Management Board and CEO of the Mahle<br />
Group, added: “With their systems and <strong>com</strong>ponents know-how, Mahle and<br />
Bosch <strong>com</strong>plement each other ideally as partners for the development of new<br />
exhaust gas turbochargers. Moreover, the two <strong>com</strong>panies are names to be<br />
reckoned within the automotive powertrain field.”<br />
Turbodyne Technologies<br />
Turbodyne Technologies is a developer of patented electrically assisted aircharging<br />
technology that enhances the performance of internal <strong>com</strong>bustion<br />
engines. Its product, the TurboPac, is <strong>com</strong>monly referred to as an electric<br />
turbocharger or electric supercharger with applications for small-displacement<br />
gasoline engines, mid-size gasoline powered vehicles (over xxx litres) and<br />
large gasoline or diesel powered vehicles.<br />
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
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