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Thailand’s emerging eco-car
industry – forecasts to 2016
2008 edition

Page i
Thailand’s emerging eco-car
industry – forecasts to 2016
2008 edition
By Tony Pugliese, www.asiamotorbusiness.com
September 2008
Published by
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Page iv
Contents
Contents
Single-user licence edition............................................................................................................. ii
Copyright statement.................................................................................................................. ii
Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences............................................... ii
just-auto.com membership........................................................................................................iii
Contents.......................................................................................................................................... iv
List of tables ................................................................................................................................... vi
Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 1
New automotive niche being created........................................................................................ 1
Domestic demand for eco-cars expected to be strong ............................................................. 1
825,000 in new car capacity approved so far ........................................................................... 2
Thai vehicle production forecast at over 2.1m by 2016 ............................................................ 2
Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market .............................................................................................. 3
Market growth after two years of decline .................................................................................. 3
Growth led by E20-compatible cars .......................................................................................... 3
Pick-up share in decline............................................................................................................ 4
Eco-cars to drive sales from 2009 ............................................................................................ 5
Toyota dominates the Thai market ........................................................................................... 5
Chapter 2 Vehicle production and exports................................................................................... 7
Ten-fold increase in output since Asia crisis............................................................................. 7
World-class pick-up truck industry ............................................................................................ 7
Shortage of skilled workers anticipated .................................................................................... 9
Chapter 3 Thai investment policies............................................................................................. 10
Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment .............................................................................. 10
Chapter 4 Automotive investment programmes........................................................................ 11
Success with pick-up trucks.................................................................................................... 11
Large motorcycle sector.......................................................................................................... 11
Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and standards ............................................................................. 13
Eco-car technical standards and tax incentives...................................................................... 13
Eco-car programme investment requirements........................................................................ 13
Technical specifications .......................................................................................................... 14
Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives........................................................................................................ 15
Biofuel subsidies ..................................................................................................................... 15
Incentives extended to E85..................................................................................................... 16
Fuel crops encouraged ........................................................................................................... 16
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Page v
Contents
Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes ........................................................................... 18
Companies pledge 825,000 units in new capacity.................................................................. 18
Tata could struggle to meet targets ........................................................................................ 18
VW could lift eco-car capacity to over 950,000 units .............................................................. 19
Honda eco-car production from end-2008 .............................................................................. 19
Asian Honda Motor Co Ltd...................................................................................................... 20
Siam Nissan Automobile Assembly Co Ltd............................................................................. 21
Auto Alliance (Thailand) Co Ltd .............................................................................................. 21
Suzuki Motor Corporation (Japan) .......................................................................................... 22
Mitsubishi Motors (Thailand) Co Ltd ....................................................................................... 23
Tata Motors Ltd....................................................................................................................... 23
Toyota Motor (Thailand) Co Ltd .............................................................................................. 24
Volkswagen AG....................................................................................................................... 24
Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle production.......................................................................... 26
Competition from eco-cars from 2009..................................................................................... 26
Pick-up truck output under pressure ....................................................................................... 26
Eco-car production to pass 700,000 units by 2015................................................................. 27
Volkswagen may help lift Thai output further .......................................................................... 27
Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment ............................................................................................ 29
Steel sector investments......................................................................................................... 29
Steel demand set to soar ........................................................................................................ 29
New incentives announced ..................................................................................................... 29
Components sector................................................................................................................. 30
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Page vi
List of tables
List of tables
Table 1: Thai domestic vehicle sales by type, 2006-2008 (no. of vehicles)...................................... 4
Table 2: Thai vehicle sales by brand, 2005-2008 (no. of vehicles)................................................... 6
Table 3: Vehicle production in Thailand by type, 2005-2008 (no. of vehicles).................................. 8
Table 4: Thai CBU vehicle exports, 2000-2008 (no. of vehicles)...................................................... 9
Table 5: Excise tax rates on passenger cars by type and fuel compatibility, January 2008 (%) .... 15
Table 6: Current and proposed eco-car programmes (THB bn, No. of cars and %)....................... 19
Table 7: Thai vehicle production forecasts by type, 2007-2016 (‘000s).......................................... 27
Table 8: Thai eco-car production forecasts by manufacturer, 2008-2016 (‘000s)........................... 28
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.

Page 1
Executive summary
Executive summary
New automotive niche being created
The Thai government in 2007 announced a package of incentives designed to
stimulate a new phase of growth in the country’s automotive industry. Through
the Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment (BOI), the Government is
offering up to eight years’ corporate tax breaks and duty-free import of related
machinery and equipment to companies investing in the manufacture of small
cars. The BOI set out the minimum investment requirements and specifications
for the car, dubbed “eco-car” due to its low fuel consumption and emissions
specifications.
The BOI hopes to repeat the success it had in developing a globallycompetitive
one-tonne pick-up truck industry in creating a new automotive
product niche. By specifying the latest European standards in terms of fuel
consumption, emissions and crash-testing, the BOI hopes to secure access for
its eco-cars to the world’s largest regional small-car market. Most eco-cars
produced in Thailand are expected to be sold in Asia and Australia, however.
Domestic demand for eco-cars expected to be strong
Domestic sales are expected to account for a significant proportion of output.
The BOI expects domestic demand for small, fuel-efficient cars in the US$xxxxxxxx
price-range to be significant. Leading sub-compact cars currently
available in the Thai market, the Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris, have minimum
retail prices of US$xxxxxx and US$xxxxxx respectively.
In tandem with the eco-car programme, the BOI in 2007 announced a new
package of incentives for prospective manufacturers of large motorcycles
(above xxxcc) – a segment that has yet to be developed significantly in
Southeast Asia. The BOI is also making significant efforts to attract investment
in support industries, such as in up-stream steel and other raw materials
production and automotive component manufacture.
The Government has also launched a number of biofuel incentives in 2008
designed to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The timing of
these announcements has left vehiclemakers somewhat dismayed, as they
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Executive summary
came after most companies had already submitted their eco-car investment
proposals.
xxxxxxx in new car capacityapproved so far
So far, seven global vehicle manufacturers have been granted permission by
the BOI to carry out their proposed investments in new eco-car manufacturing
plants – each with a capacity of at least xxxxxxx units per year. A total of
xxxxxxx units of new vehicle production capacity have been approved by the
BOI, and an eighth proposal submitted by Volkswagen awaits approval. The
eighth project would bring total new small-car capacity to close to xxxxxxx
units – similar to the country’s total pick-up truck production in 2007.
One of the BOI’s specific requirements for eco-car investments is that actual
annual production must reach xxxxxxx units within five years. On the basis
that all seven of the already approved eco-car programmes do meet these
minimum production stipulations, annual eco-car production would exceed
xxxxxxx units by 2016. Around one-third of output is expected to be sold in
Thailand. The first model, from Honda, is expected to be produced at the end
of 2008.
While global demand for fuel-efficient cars is rising sharply as oil prices
continue to spike, it is conceivable that not all eco-car manufacturers will meet
their production and sales targets. Tata Motors looks the weakest of the group,
with negligible sales volumes across the ASEAN region, including Thailand,
and a poor brand image outside India. All other prospective eco-car
manufacturers have strong global distribution networks and will likely do well.
Thai vehicle production forecast at over xxxm by 2016
Thai vehicle production is forecast to exceed xxxm units by 2016, provided that
most eco-car programmes go according to plan. This would represent a xx%
increase on the xxxm vehicles produced in 2007. Some erosion will occur
between vehicle segments, with conventional small cars coming under
pressure as the lower-cost eco-cars become widely available across
Southeast Asia. Eco-cars are expected to compete closely on price with pickup
trucks, but any sales trade-off is likely to be limited due to the significant
difference in specifications and end-user requirements.
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Page 3
Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market
Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market
Market growth after two years of decline
After peaking at an all-time high of over xxxxxxx units in 2005, the Thai
domestic vehicle market experienced two years of decline as economic growth
slowed to around xxx% over the subsequent two years. Political uncertainty
was a key factor affecting domestic sentiment, following the military coup in
September 2006. Significant uncertainty persists despite parliamentary
elections being held in December 2007.
Vehicle sales rose by xx% in the first half of 2008 to over xxxxxxx units, with
strong demand for fuel-efficient passenger cars driving overall sales. The
popularity of pick-up trucks, which typically have engines ranging in size
between xxxxcc and xxxxcc, is in decline – seemingly in direct relation to the
rising cost of fuel.
Imports represent a small part of the market, despite the country’s participation
in regional and bilateral free trade agreements. The Federation of Thai
Industries’ (FTI) Automotive Club expects CBU car imports to reach xxxxx
units this year – or close to x% of the total sales. Most imports are niche
vehicles – either luxury models such as recreational vehicles, luxury and
sports cars, or small cars, according to the association.
Growth led by E20-compatible cars
Since the beginning of 2008 passenger car demand has been boosted by a cut
in excise tax from xx% to xx% on models compatible with ethanol-based E20.
Biofuels, including the diesel-vegetable oil D2, are also a bit cheaper than
conventional fuels – further increasing the attraction of compatible car models.
As more and more E20-compatible models were made available in the
marketplace during the first half of 2008, a significant shift in consumer
demand has taken place.
In the first half of 2008, a total of xxxxxx passenger cars were sold in
Thailand, equivalent to xx% of total vehicle sales. This compares with a xxxx%
share in 2006 and xx% in 2007. Around xxxxxxx of these were E20-
compatible models, according to the Thai Automotive Institute.
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Page 7
Chapter 2 Vehicle production and exports
Chapter 2 Vehicle production and
exports
Ten-fold increase in output since Asia crisis
Thai vehicle production has staged a strong recovery since falling to a low of
xxxxxxx units at the height of the Asia crisis in 1998. Ten years on, output is
expected to be close to ten times that amount – forecast at around xxxx-xxxxm
units in 2008 by the Thai government, thanks to a sharp increase in domestic
demand and rising exports.
The Government succeeded in helping to steer the automotive industry out of
the Asia crisis thanks to the timely introduction of incentives and legislation,
including a relaxation in foreign ownership regulations. This helped the
industry transform itself into an export-oriented, globally-competitive vehicle
and automotive component manufacturing base. This year, around xx% of
vehicle output is expected to be exported.
World-class pick-up truck industry
Thailand has created the world’s second-largest market for one-ton pick-up
trucks after that of the US, thanks to low excise taxes of x%. This has allowed
the country’s pick-up truck manufacturers and their component suppliers to
develop the economies of scale necessary to compete globally. In the last ten
years, the quality of pick-up trucks has increased dramatically and all pick-up
plants now supply world markets.
Pick-up-based vehicles, including trucks and passenger pick-up vehicles
(PPVs), accounted for just short of xx% of total output last year, or over
xxxxxxx units. Passenger cars made up xx% of output, but this is expected to
rise sharply in the next five years thanks mainly to the Government’s eco-car
programme.
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Page 10
Chapter 3 Thai investment policies
Chapter 3 Thai investment policies
Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment
The Thai government, through the Ministry of Industry’s policy arm – the Board
of Investment – offers incentive programmes to attract investment in sectors
which it regards as having significant potential for growth and, therefore, the
potential to provide significant benefit to the Thai economy.
Projects are approved on a case-by-case basis and tax privileges and micropolicies
have varied significantly over the years. Investment programmes are
awarded different levels of priority and tax incentives depending on scale and
the potential benefits to the Thai economy.
The BOI requires a minimum initial investment of THBxm (US$xxxxxx),
excluding working capital and land purchase costs, for a manufacturing project
to be considered by the BOI. In order to be considered for special tax
privileges, other key requirements need to be met. These include minimum
standards of corporate governance, minimum value added (usually around
xx%), the use of modern production processes, modern/effective machinery
and the meeting of minimum environmental protection standards.
Requirements and incentives differ significantly between investments of up to
THBxxxm (US$xxm) and those above THBxxxm, and vary according to
economic development zone.
Key industries that have been developed in Thailand with the support of the
BOI include:
○ food and food processing;
○ textiles and textile products;
○ electronic products and parts;
○ electrical products and parts;
○ petrochemicals;
○ rubber; and
○ vehicles and equipment.
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Page 11
Chapter 4 Automotive investment programmes
Chapter 4 Automotive investment
programmes
Success with pick-up trucks
The BOI has been successful in the past in promoting the development of a
world-class one-tonne pick-up truck industry based on incentives and low
domestic taxation to stimulate domestic demand. Today, the Thai one-tonne
pick-up industry and market is second only to that of the US. The country
produced xxxxxxx pick-up-based vehicles in 2007, of which close to xxxxxxx
units were sold domestically.
Large motorcycle sector
At a meeting of the BOI held in October 2007, the Thai government reduced its
investment requirements for prospective manufacturers of large motorcycles,
as it pushes on with its efforts to develop a new two-wheeler industry niche.
The improved offer reflects a lack of response to the previously-announced
programme.
With its revised policy, the BOI has scrapped its minimum annual capacity
requirements of xxxxx units for companies proposing to produce large, fourstroke
motorcycles with engines capacities of xxxcc and over. Restrictions on
foreign ownership have also been lifted completely, instead of the previous
limit of xx%.
Incentives include corporation tax waivers for an amount not exceeding the
total investment value and duty free importation of machinery, regardless of
plant location within Thailand.
To promote motorcycle engine manufacture, starting with the machining of key
parts such as cylinder heads and crankcases, the corporate income tax
holiday has been extended to between three and eight years, depending on
plant location.
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Page 13
Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and standards
Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and
standards
Eco-car technical standards and tax incentives
The Thai government offers vehicle manufacturers that qualify for its eco-car
programme exemption from relevant corporate taxes for eight years, provided
that the amount does not exceed the initial investment, and duty-free
importation of related machinery and manufacturing equipment, regardless of
the plant’s location.
To encourage domestic sales of these vehicles, the excise tax will be set at
xx%, compared with xx% for conventional passenger cars and xx% for cars
compatible with biofuels. The tax rate will be much higher than the x% excise
tax currently applied to pick-up trucks, however.
Eco-car programme investment requirements
To qualify for Thai eco-car tax incentives, a minimum investment of THBxbn
(US$xxxm) must be made within the first five years – excluding the cost of
land and working capital. Investors also must make the following
commitments:
○ a minimum annual production level of xxxxxxx vehicles within five
years.
○ local assembly of engines; and
○ local production of at least four of the following five items: cylinder
heads, cylinder blocks, crankshafts, camshafts and connecting rods.
Initial production of cylinder blocks and heads must be at least at the
machining stage.
Although the Government is not allowed to specifically require minimum local
content levels under WTO regulations, component manufacturing and sourcing
plans must be submitted for approval. The BOI assesses these plans and
makes an arbitrary ruling based on merit.
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Page 15
Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives
Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives
Independent of developments in the eco-car segment, in January 2008 the
Thai government reduced excise taxes on cars compatible with E20 gasohol
and B2 biodiesel to xx% for cars with an engine smaller than xxxxcc, from the
xx% applied to similar-sized, non gasohol-compatible cars. The overall excise
tax range has been reduced from xxxxx% to xxxxx%, depending on engine
size (see Table 5, below).
E20 comprises xx% ethanol and xx% petrol, while B2 is xx% diesel and x%
vegetable oil. As a result of the January cut in excise taxes, vehicle
manufacturers were able to reduce the price of gasohol-compatible passenger
cars by between THBxxxxxx to as much as THBxxxxxxx for top-of-the-range
cars. Government policy looks set to continue in this direction as it tries to slow
the country’s rising dependence for fossil fuels.
Table 5: Excise tax rates on passenger cars by type and fuel compatibility, January 2008
(%)
Engine size (cc) Standard fuel E85 gasohol E20 gasohol/B2 Eco-cars
< 2000 xx xx xx xx
2001-2500 xx xx xx -
3501-3000 xx xx xx -
Larger than 3000 xx xx xx -
Sources: Thai government
Biofuel subsidies
Further tax subsidies are applied to the biofuel itself, making E20 and B2 a few
percentage points cheaper than conventional fuels. It has been argued that
these benefits are offset by the higher consumption rates of the fuel.
Nevertheless the Thai state-owned petroleum company, PTT Plc, is struggling
to produce and distribute enough E20 to keep up with the growing demand, as
more and more E20-compatible cars are sold in the country. The Federation of
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Page 18
Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes
Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car
programmes
Companies pledge xxxxxxx units in new capacity
The Thai Board of Investment has approved seven eco-car proposals involving
combined investments in the region of THBxxbn, or close to US$xbn. The
seven new plants will add xxxxxxx units in new vehicle production capacity in
the country and are expected to produce a combined total of at least xxxxxxx
eco-cars per year, within five years of completion, if they are to comply with the
Government’s eco-car investment requirements.
The Thai government has adopted advanced European technical
specifications as the main standards for the eco-cars, mainly because Europe
is the largest and most developed regional small car market in the world. The
Government is trying to steal a march on rivals from India and China and
encourage participants to ultimately target Europe as a key export destination
in addition to Asia-Pacific.
Tata could struggle to meet targets
While most of the companies investing in eco-car plants are well established in
the Thai market, two of these – Suzuki Motors and Tata Motor – have a very
limited presence in the country. Tata Motors, in particular, will likely struggle to
meet the minimum volume requirements set out by the Thai government’s
incentive guidelines as well as its own domestic (Thai) sales targets. The
company also has a negligible presence in other major Asian markets outside
India, and overall it is expected to struggle to find buyers for its Thai-made
cars.
Suzuki’s Thai sales targets are more conservative even though it is making
significant progress in building up its sales network in Thailand. The company
also has a strong presence in other Asian markets.
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Page 26
Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle production
Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle
production
Competition from eco-cars from 2009
Thai vehicle production growth is forecast to slow sharply in 2008, rising by
just xxx% to xxxxm units, up from just over xxxm units in 2007. Passenger car
production is expected to continue to outperform this year thanks to buoyant
domestic sales and strong demand in key export markets. Output is expected
to weaken significantly from 2009, however, due to slowing economic growth
in the region, with rising interest rates and inflation begin to affect consumer
spending.
The launch of Honda’s new eco-car, which is scheduled to go into production
later this year, will help lift overall volumes, but demand for existing cars will
inevitably begin to suffer. As competition from the eco-car segment intensifies
in the next few years, conventional passenger car production is expected to
come under further pressure – particularly small cars such as the Toyota Yaris
and the Honda Fit. With fuel prices unlikely to fall significantly in the medium
term, consumer preference is likely to shift increasingly towards more fuelefficient
vehicles.
Pick-up truck output under pressure
After a strong first half of 2008, pick-up truck output is expected to weaken
significantly in the second half with slowing economic growth in key overseas
markets expected to affect export demand. Domestic sales have already
slowed sharply in recent months. Pick-up truck output is expected to remain
under pressure for some time, as high fuel costs exacerbate an already weak
demand environment both domestically and overseas. Vehicle life-cycles are
likely to be extended as economic pressures mount and potential buyers may
also opt for lower-cost means of transport.
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Page 29
Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment
Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment
In order to successfully promote a new expansion phase of the Thai vehicle
industry, the country’s Board of Investment needs to attract new investment in
key upstream sectors, particularly in the manufacture of high-quality steel and
automotive components. The BOI is actively promoting investments in these
areas with incentives and other support initiatives.
Steel sector investments
The country’s automotive and other key industries such as domestic
appliances and electronics currently rely heavily on steel imports from South
Korea and China. The BOI is encouraging investment in high-quality upstream
steel production, with the aim not only of eliminating the country’s dependence
on imports, but to also supply steel to other manufacturers in the region.
With automotive sector production set to rise sharply in the medium term, as
the above-mentioned eco-car programmes get under way, the country’s steel
demand is expected to rise sharply in the next few years. The Government has
identified an urgent need for substantial investment in smelting capacity.
Steel demand set to soar
The Thai government expects annual domestic demand for high-quality steel
to double in the next ten years to xxm tons per year, from xxxxm tons at
present. It currently imports xxxm tons of steel per year from Japan and South
Korea, worth over THBxxxbn (or close to US$xxxbn). Other ASEAN countries
import a combined xxxm tons of steel per year, worth just under US$xbn,
according to data released by the BOI.
New incentives announced
In November 2007, the Government signed off a package of incentives with
related guidelines designed to promote investments in high-quality steel
production. The Government also offers assistance to help secure optimum
locations for steel production and to ensure that appropriate infrastructure is
available, including deep-sea port facilities and adequate water supply.
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