Dissertation_Paula Aleksandrowicz_12 ... - Jacobs University

Table 5: Planned average age of exit from the labour market
1996 2002
Men 61.6 62.0
Women 60.1 61.1
Total 61.1 61.6
Source: Engstler 2004: 13; data from the Ageing Survey.
Between 1996 and 2002, the planned age of exit has on average risen by half a year,
more pronounced in the case of women. Engstler (2004: 12-13) explains that phenomenon
with the stepwise expiry of the retirement option for women at the age of 60. Similar
adaptations of the expected retirement age were recorded by Esser (2005: Appendix A), who
analysed two Eurobarometer surveys.
Pension reform debates since the 1990s have also diminished confidence in the public
pension scheme. Nowadays, a majority of employees expects lower pension benefits and
perceives increased insecurity as to whether one will be able to actually retire at the
preferred age. Between the two survey waves, the preference for an early exit (at age 60 or
earlier) has dropped from 52.1 to 37.2 per cent (Engstler 2004: 10). At the same time, the
uncertainty as to one´s retirement plans has risen. Whereas in 1996 18.5 per cent of
respondents answered the respective question with ´don´t know´, six years later, already
32.6 per cent answered in that vein.
Retirement plans are a solid indicator for actual retirement behaviour. Since the Ageing
Survey included a panel of respondents it could be shown that among those who in 2002 had
already reached the planned retirement age they mentioned in 1996, only 18.8 per cent were
still gainfully employed but 76.5 per cent had retired. 60 per cent of those belonging to the
latter group had done so maximally one year earlier or one year later than they indicated in
the 1996 survey (Engstler 2004: 15-7).
The statistical analysis in this chapter has shown that institutional changes affect the
labour market behaviour of individuals. The downward trend in the average retirement age
has been halted, and more workers retire at the age of 63 instead of 60. Germany has already
fulfilled the Stockholm target with an employment rate of 52 per cent among the 55-64-
year-olds. This has been, besides of some side-effects of demographic developments, the
effect of malus rules in case of early retirement. The effect of the shortened (albeit
afterwards partly restituted) duration of payment of the unemployment benefit for older
unemployed and of the cancelled § 428 Social Code III remain to be seen in the future.
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