Dissertation_Paula Aleksandrowicz_12 ... - Jacobs University

Poles occupy low positions with regard to the subjective rating of health. Only 15 per
cent of Poles aged 55-64 regard their health status as “(very) good”. The respective share for
Germany is 72 per cent (EC 2007: 93). The self-perceived health status correlates with
employment rates of older workers (ibid).
The further life expectancy at the age of 60 has increased across the EU. Increasing
longevity creates opportunities for the postponement of retirement. The EU-27 average in
2003 was 21.7 years. Older Poles will live shorter than the average (19.8 years), Germans
longer than the average (22.1 years) (EC 2007: 57). The difference to Germany and other
Western European countries is largest with regard to the (further) life expectancy of men:
Polish males born in 2005 will live six years shorter than their German peers. The shorter
the life expectancy, the larger the propensity to exit the labour market early in order to enjoy
last years of life (that would be in line with the economic life cycle hypothesis; Dinkel 1988:
134). Poles can however await a longer period (both in absolute and relative terms) of
healthy life years, both measured at birth and at the age of 65 (Eurostat data).
The forecasted demographic changes in Germany and Poland pose a smaller chance for
the prolongation of working life than is often claimed (Kistler 2004). The potential labour
force will not decrease as steeply as to create significant employment effects for older
workers in the next decades. Until 2050, the share of 30-49-year-olds among the potential
labour force will decrease in Germany from 54 to 48 per cent by 2050, and the share of
workers aged 50-64 years will rise from 23 to 30 per cent (Fuchs/Dörfler 2005: 2). 40
Demographic projections of Eurostat from the year 2007 show that in Poland, the share of
persons in ´immobile working age´ (45-59/64) will increase from 15.7 per cent to 33.8 per
cent of working-age population by 2050, and the share of persons aged 0-24 years will fall
from currently 36 to 25 per cent (MPiPS 2008: 34). The percentage of persons of workingage
in the population will fall from currently 64 to 50.4 by 2050 (ibid). Around that date, the
last generation of baby-boomers from mid-80ties (Rosner/Stanny 2008: 1) will reach
retirement age. 41
40 Assumptions: annual migration rate of 200,000 persons, rising (female) employment rates. The prognosis
has not yet taken into account the effects of the retirement age raised to 67, therefore the employment rate of
persons aged 65+ are forecasted at the 2005 level.
41 Assumptions: fertility rates 1.1. in 2010, afterwards 1.2; life expectancy 77.8 years (74.6 men, 81.2 women)
in 2015, afterwards 80 years (77.6. men, 83.3 women); negative net migration of 24,000 persons in 2010;
(http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/45_648_PLK_HTML.htm). The Eurostat baseline variant from 2004 assumes
negative net migration of 35,913 in 2010.
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