Dissertation_Paula Aleksandrowicz_12 ... - Jacobs University
Dissertation_Paula Aleksandrowicz_12 ... - Jacobs University Dissertation_Paula Aleksandrowicz_12 ... - Jacobs University
Poles (21.2%) than Germans (11.5%) who plan to retire between the age of 60/61-64. 34 However, Germans seem to have internalised the trend toward longer working lives, as the difference to 1996 results suggests (Engstler 2004), while Poles have since 1999 clung to their ideal of a low retirement age for all, and a very low for women (CBOS 2007). 35 Interrogated about the reasons for leaving the last job or business, 2/3 of 55-64-year-olds in the EU named the availability of old-age pensions or their attractive financial conditions (EC 2007: 79-80; MPiPS 2008: 50; LFS data from 2001, 2005 and 2006). This proves that voluntary exit prevails and addressing its pull determinants might bring about a change. Regarding involuntary reasons for exit, in Germany, more persons (ca. 17%) than in Poland or EU-25 (ca. 12%) have left work because of health reasons. In Poland, dismissals or other work related problems accounted for 20 per cent of job exits (comp. to ca. 8% in Germany). The institutional variables included in my analysis are presented with their respective value in Table 10. Table 10: Country values on supply-side variables which have a positive impact on the prolongation of working life Variable Germany Poland declared political will to end the early exit trend + + consistent policy-making – – low replacement rate (in rel. to OECD average) + – disability pensions granted solely on medical grounds + + closed or phasing out early retirement pensions without + + deductions last early retirement pension (without deductions) will expire + _ 2015 or earlier closed unemployment pathway + – equalisation of retirement ages for men and women + adaptation of retirement preferences to changed pension rules + – (across several years) pension calculation honours postponement of retirement + + opportunities for combining work and partial pension + + RESULT 10 + / 1 5+ / 6 Explanations: The positive signs indicate that the variable in question applies in the given country context, the negative signs indicate that the variable does not apply. Germany has ten positive values (opportunities) and one negative one (barrier), and Poland has five institutional, supply-side opportunities and six barriers to a prolongation of working life. On that basis, the institutional part of hypothesis 6 is not supported with regard to Germany (as the institutional configuration of early exit is, contrary to the hypothesis, 34 An explanation might be the broader age range („below 61“) in the German survey (there is no opportunity to retire at 59 in any of the two countries) and the temporary distance between those two surveys. 35 An exact comparison is not possible, as no studies on retirement plans were conducted in Poland before 2006. 95
conducive towards the prolongation of working life) and supported with regard to Poland. 36 The chances for Germany for a sustainable reversal of the early exit trend are higher than for Poland. A point in Poland´s favour is a quicker rise of the exit age since 2001. The European Commission (2007: 113-4) argues in the same line. With regard to the Stockholm target, its fulfilment by Poland and EU-25 is deemed unlikely by 2010 but possible by 2013. The Barcelona target will not be reached by any EU country in near time. 3.4.3. Structural Demand-side Factors Beside of institutional factors, structural factors (in the meaning of socio-economic, demand-side orientated or push factors) were included as mediators in the original model (Fig. 3 in section 3.1.). I will present the most important structural factors which will allow me to place the conclusions from the preceding institutional chapters in a broader framework and to restrict or supplement the analytical value of hypothesis 6. Germany is better positioned with regard to the sectoral distribution of older workforce, as Table 11 shows. Services are an expanding sector, which benefits older workers, especially older women (EC 2007: 88; Schömann 2006: 128). Employment in the service sector raises the chances of older workers to stay on the job. 37 Still, the service sector in Germany is slightly underdeveloped compared to EU-15 average (Schömann 2006: 129- 130). In Poland, a worrying matter is the still high share of workers of all ages employed in agriculture despite the reductions from an even higher level (one third of workers) since 1980. Moreover, workers of pre-retirement age dominate in that declining sector (http://www.doradcaprow.pl/prow/index.php?gid=84). 36 The second part of hypothesis 6 on the impact of organisational factors will be tested on basis of establishment-level studies in the empirical section 4. 37 Admittedly, also service workers experience risks to health, which may diminish their chances for continued employment (Jansen/Müller 2000), especially nursing staff or persons employed in the transportation sector (Behrens 1999: 82-83). Nevertheless, services show on average a prevalence of low-strain work organisations, and are characterised by a higher grade of autonomy (European Foundation 2008: 40); the self-employed and service workers retire later than civil servants and manufacturing workers (Esser 2005: 14). 96
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conducive towards the prolongation of working life) and supported with regard to Poland. 36<br />
The chances for Germany for a sustainable reversal of the early exit trend are higher than for<br />
Poland. A point in Poland´s favour is a quicker rise of the exit age since 2001.<br />
The European Commission (2007: 113-4) argues in the same line. With regard to the<br />
Stockholm target, its fulfilment by Poland and EU-25 is deemed unlikely by 2010 but<br />
possible by 2013. The Barcelona target will not be reached by any EU country in near time.<br />
3.4.3. Structural Demand-side Factors<br />
Beside of institutional factors, structural factors (in the meaning of socio-economic,<br />
demand-side orientated or push factors) were included as mediators in the original model<br />
(Fig. 3 in section 3.1.). I will present the most important structural factors which will allow<br />
me to place the conclusions from the preceding institutional chapters in a broader<br />
framework and to restrict or supplement the analytical value of hypothesis 6.<br />
Germany is better positioned with regard to the sectoral distribution of older workforce,<br />
as Table 11 shows. Services are an expanding sector, which benefits older workers,<br />
especially older women (EC 2007: 88; Schömann 2006: <strong>12</strong>8). Employment in the service<br />
sector raises the chances of older workers to stay on the job. 37 Still, the service sector in<br />
Germany is slightly underdeveloped compared to EU-15 average (Schömann 2006: <strong>12</strong>9-<br />
130). In Poland, a worrying matter is the still high share of workers of all ages employed in<br />
agriculture despite the reductions from an even higher level (one third of workers) since<br />
1980. Moreover, workers of pre-retirement age dominate in that declining sector<br />
(http://www.doradcaprow.pl/prow/index.php?gid=84).<br />
36 The second part of hypothesis 6 on the impact of organisational factors will be tested on basis of<br />
establishment-level studies in the empirical section 4.<br />
37 Admittedly, also service workers experience risks to health, which may diminish their chances for continued<br />
employment (Jansen/Müller 2000), especially nursing staff or persons employed in the transportation sector<br />
(Behrens 1999: 82-83). Nevertheless, services show on average a prevalence of low-strain work organisations,<br />
and are characterised by a higher grade of autonomy (European Foundation 2008: 40); the self-employed and<br />
service workers retire later than civil servants and manufacturing workers (Esser 2005: 14).<br />
96
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