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1980s and first half <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1990s, ow<strong>in</strong>g to cutbacks <strong>in</strong><br />

defense expenditure and <strong>the</strong> collapse <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Soviet<br />

Union. Military R&D also decl<strong>in</strong>ed. However, India has<br />

rema<strong>in</strong>ed committed to acquire capabilities to deal<br />

with a militarily more robust than Ch<strong>in</strong>a. Work on <strong>the</strong><br />

Agni missile project, <strong>the</strong> Light Combat Aircraft project,<br />

<strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> battle tank, and aircraft carrier project have<br />

been susta<strong>in</strong>ed, though <strong>the</strong>y have suffered from<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial constra<strong>in</strong>ts and political uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty at <strong>the</strong><br />

centre. The signs are, however, po<strong>in</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g towards<br />

greater efforts <strong>in</strong> higher levels <strong>of</strong> defense<br />

modernisation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> com<strong>in</strong>g years.<br />

India needs to enhance its overall national<br />

power and deterrence capability through its nuclear<br />

weapon and missile programmes and its Naval and<br />

air power, while keep<strong>in</strong>g up <strong>the</strong> modernisation <strong>of</strong> its<br />

conventional forces to ensure its security aga<strong>in</strong>st an<br />

<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly robust Ch<strong>in</strong>a.<br />

Multilateralism<br />

A third element <strong>of</strong> India's strategic options is to<br />

support and help create multilateral security structures<br />

<strong>in</strong> Asia that would draw <strong>in</strong> all countries and create<br />

normative and preventive mechanisms. This would<br />

<strong>in</strong>volve <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g:-<br />

• Close multi-layered ties with <strong>the</strong> United<br />

States, Russia, Japan, Europe, ASEAN, <strong>the</strong> Gulf<br />

states, and <strong>the</strong> states <strong>of</strong> South Asia to create<br />

balance <strong>of</strong> forces favourable to India.<br />

• Support for regional CSBMs, peace<br />

structures, and peaceful norms for solv<strong>in</strong>g<br />

disputes from which all countries could ga<strong>in</strong>.<br />

Balance <strong>of</strong> Power<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a is expected to become <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly active<br />

and assertive <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> IOR. India needs to take necessary<br />

steps to match Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>in</strong> techno-military terms, so as<br />

to thwart any negative fall-out to its security and wellbe<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

The question arises: what if India cannot atta<strong>in</strong><br />

an equal and balanced relationship with Ch<strong>in</strong>a? In<br />

such a case, India would clearly need security partners<br />

with which to balance Ch<strong>in</strong>a as it previously did with<br />

<strong>the</strong> Soviet Union. India clearly would have to closely<br />

nurture its ties with <strong>the</strong> United States, Japan and<br />

Europe <strong>in</strong> order to create appropriate conditions for<br />

future cont<strong>in</strong>gencies. However, most Indian decision<br />

makers view <strong>the</strong> country's <strong>in</strong>terests best served not <strong>in</strong><br />

an alliance with a major power, but <strong>in</strong> enhanc<strong>in</strong>g its<br />

own power to thwart coercion and aggression.<br />

Therefore, while India attempts to develop a<br />

stable engagement strategy, <strong>in</strong>terdependence, and<br />

diverse co-operative ties with Ch<strong>in</strong>a, it would need to<br />

cont<strong>in</strong>ue to enhance its power and all round<br />

economic, military, political and technological<br />

capabilities. Should <strong>the</strong>se efforts not succeed, India<br />

would ei<strong>the</strong>r have to acquiesce to a dom<strong>in</strong>ant<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>ese role <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> region, or build security l<strong>in</strong>ks with<br />

an external power to balance Ch<strong>in</strong>a, which may not<br />

be feasible unless India itself is seen as a more robust,<br />

purposeful, and rapidly modernis<strong>in</strong>g state. The United<br />

States, Russia, or Japan would be wary <strong>of</strong> displeas<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a or jeopardis<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir respective <strong>in</strong>terests vis-avis<br />

Beij<strong>in</strong>g if India is perceived as weak. Thus, for India<br />

<strong>the</strong> challenge posed by Ch<strong>in</strong>a can only be met by<br />

susta<strong>in</strong>ed levels <strong>of</strong> economic growth, cont<strong>in</strong>ued<br />

modernisation <strong>of</strong> its military technological base, and<br />

restructur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> its military forces. These are also <strong>the</strong><br />

only options around which a national consensus<br />

could be built. A subord<strong>in</strong>ate role to Ch<strong>in</strong>a or a security<br />

alliance with <strong>the</strong> U.S. despite <strong>the</strong> grow<strong>in</strong>g congruence<br />

<strong>in</strong> Indo-U.S. <strong>in</strong>terests, both rema<strong>in</strong> politically<br />

unacceptable with<strong>in</strong> India. However, a series <strong>of</strong><br />

strategic relation<strong>ships</strong> ty<strong>in</strong>g India with <strong>the</strong> United<br />

States, Japan, Russia, and Europe that streng<strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong><br />

forces <strong>of</strong> democracy and rule <strong>of</strong> law, help build<br />

universal norms and structures for peaceful resolution<br />

<strong>of</strong> disputes, promote multilateralism, and create a<br />

new Asian balance for peace and security are both<br />

possible and desirable.<br />

Conclusion<br />

The <strong>deployment</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>PLA</strong> <strong>Navy</strong> <strong>ships</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Gulf<br />

<strong>of</strong> Aden is a manifestation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>ese desire to<br />

shed its image as a ‘brown water’ <strong>Navy</strong> and signal to<br />

<strong>the</strong> world <strong>of</strong> its aspiration to assume a role beyond its<br />

natural geographic and historic maritime boundaries.<br />

In any case Ch<strong>in</strong>a has ambitions to possess a world<br />

class and capable <strong>Navy</strong>, and seems to be on its way<br />

faster than expected.<br />

With Ch<strong>in</strong>a persist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> its military modernisation and<br />

FFFFFFFFF SEPTEMBER 2010<br />

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