deployment of the PLA Navy ships in the - Information Resource ...

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Vulnerability Analysis of Second Strike
Based on the factors considered above the
vulnerability analysis of the three Vectors has been
carried out in the succeeding paragraphs. To narrow
down the scope of the analysis, the author has
assumed that the First Strike force to be China/
Pakistan and the Second Strike force to be India.
Though China has also declared a NFU policy,
however, it is not applicable against countries with
territorial disputes and hence is considered as a First
Strike force. A table of known nuclear arsenal of China,
Pakistan and India as published by Mr Robert S Norris
of the Natural Resources Defense Council of USA and
Mr Hans M Kristensen of the Federation of American
Scientists is placed at the end of the paper for reference.
• Deception. Land and Air vectors per
force have to be located within the mainland
due non availability of defence pact with any
other nation. Positioning these vectors on
islands is likely to ease identification problems for
the enemy. Therefore it can be fairly assumed
that considering the elaborate intelligence
network and the technology available, the
primary and some of the alternate locations of
our strategic assets on land would be known to
the enemy. However, Sea vectors comprising
surface ships and submarines could be put to
sea. Ships at sea are free to manoeuvre in
international waters and hence identification
and subsequent targeting would be difficult.
Submarines due to their inherent characteristic
of operations are the stealthiest and would be
the most difficult to neutralise.
• Mobility.
• Land Vectors. Land vectors within
weapon range are limited by their speed
and restricted by availability of road/ rail
network. Moreover, considering the large
area of dispersion of WMD, Land vectors
may not be able to escape once the First
Strike has been launched. Hence unless
pre-positioned beyond adversary's
weapon range, the redundancy may not
be significant. These far out surviving units
would then take a finite amount to close
distance to enemy land to launch the
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Second Strike weapons which may not be
acceptable. This could be overcome by
having longer range weapons with the
Second Strike force.
• Air Vectors. Air vectors on the other
hand enjoy .the highest mobility, however,
would remain limited to territorial limits
unless Carrier based. Movement of land
based Air vectors are subject to various
enemy intelligence gathering sources at
the primary/ alternate air bases, hence
could be compromised and targeted.
Moreover, the effect of wide area
dispersion of WMD on these vectors on
ground would be similar to Land vectors.
• Sea Vectors. Sea based surface
vectors have the freedom of
maneuverability in international waters
keeping beyond range of enemy
weapons. These vectors could be
deployed well in advance and could
launch their long range nuclear weapons
or move in to deliver the shorter range
weapons. Conventional submarines
though limited by speed could be prepositioned
in international waters close to
adversary's shore thus enabling delivery
of even short range weapons. On the
other hand SSBNs would have the
combined advantage of speed and stealth
provided by ships and conventional
submarines respectively. Further the
effects of WMD at sea are not as grave as
on land due atmospheric conditions and
absence of collateral damage.
• Range. China has tested ballistic missiles
which could cover the entire Indian mainland.
Pakistan on the other hand has ballistic missiles
that could cover most of North, West and Central
India. Moreover, China presently and Pakistan
in future could have sea based vectors including
ships enabling them to target strategic assets in
south India and the littorals. Hence, in case of a
First Strike, targeting land and air vectors could
be effective ensuring deterioration in the
Second Strike capability. Whereas for the Second
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