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Indian Historical Overview. With the
successful conduct of Shakti tests in 1974 and
Pokharan tests in 1998 Indian nuclear weaponisation
program started by Dr Homi Bhabha in 1965 reached
final fruition. It prompted none other than the Prime
Minister to proclaim "India is now a Nuclear weapon
state", a motto which has acquired international
acceptance. In the recent years development of Indian
missile programme with Prithvi, Sagarika, Dhanush
and Agni has added credibility to India's nuclear
weapons delivery capability.
Aim
The aim of this paper is to examine assured
Second Strike capability alongwith analysis of
vulnerability of the three Vectors viz. I and, Air and Sea
India's Nuclear Doctrine
India's Nuclear doctrine was put forth by the
National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) in 1999 and
subsequently in the CCS statement issued on 04 Jan
03. It conceptualises that Indian nuclear weapons
would be political instruments for enforcing
deterrence rather than military weapons. The salient
ingredients of the doctrine are highlighted below.
• The doctrine envisages the build up of a
"credible minimum deterrence", based on a
triad of enduring, diverse, flexible and
responsive nuclear delivery means.
• No First Use. The deterrence factor is
further emphasised by the clause of No First Use
(NFU) of nuclear weapons against Nuclear
Weapon States. It further states that nuclear
weapons will not be used against States that do
not possess nuclear weapons or are not aligned
with nuclear weapon powers. However, India
has retained the option of use of nuclear
weapons against non-nuclear weapon states
resorting to use of Biological or Chemical
weapons. The declared Indian stand of No First
Use is debatable and beyond the purview of this
paper.
• Massive Retaliation. The doctrine also
espouses massive retaliation designed to inflict
unacceptable damage in case of a First Strike on
Indian territory or Indian forces anywhere. From
this declared stance one could infer that an
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adversary's First Strike would be a massive
multiple serial nuclear attack (greater than what
the enemy may have otherwise factored into its
calculations) to offset an effective Second Strike
by India.
First Strike
Technically 'First strike' is an attack so powerful
so as to leave one's adversary with insufficient forces
to inflict substantial damage on the attacker. Since the
Cold War USA, NATO and USSR built large number of
nuclear weapons, delivery platforms and associated
C3I infrastructure with the primary task of First Strike.
This was required to undertake pre-emptive/ surprise
First Strikes to sufficiently reduce if not completely
eliminate the enemy's "Second Strike' capability.
The USA subscribes to Launch on Warning
(LOW) and Launch under Attack (LUA) postures. This
was done as the country believes that unless it was
able to undertake a pre-emptive/ surprise strike, it
stood little chance of destroying all Soviet targets as
required by its war plans. Similarly, NATO and Russia
also believe in retaining the initiative and hence
undertaking First Strike if required. Pakistan does not
have a stated nuclear doctrine, but based on
statements and articles written by authoritative
Pakistan dignitaries, Pakistan retains the option of First
Strike against overwhelming conventional force.
China on the other hand has adopted a 'No First Use'
policy but crucially this does not apply to conflicts over
territories claimed by China and hence remains a
potent threat to countries not only in the subcontinent
but also in South China Sea.
Second Strike
Other than India and China (with the caveat of
territorial conflicts), no other nation has a declared No
First Use doctrine. India's stand on No First Use is the
bedrock for establishing a credible Second Strike
capability. This capability could be rightly defined as
second in order of utilisation but not inferior in
capability to first strike. In fact the ability of establishing
a credible Second Strike capability is more challenging
than a First Strike. In a First Strike the initiative is with
the attacker giving him the freedom to choose the
time, place and quantum of attack. Whereas Second
Strike is retaliatory and would require careful planning
and innovation to achieve the desired punitive results.
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