Editor’s Letter Holiday Wishes? It’s quite possible this winter we will see one of those rare instances of late when an Outdoor Retailer expo fails to experience sequential growth in the number of exhibitors. Now, don’t get your bike short chamois in a bind. We’re not here to add murk to the gloom and suggest that even the outdoor market is not insulated from the current recessionary period. Sure, the capital crunch will put a kibosh on marketing agendas at some smaller vendors and squash plans altogether for a few upstarts, both of which tend to represent much of the new exhibitors, and hence the growth, at OR. What’s less clear at this point, however, is how current market conditions will impact winter traffic in the retail aisles. Not good, say the experts, and for good reasons. But we’re still not convinced it’s wise for outdoor dealers to alter plans in expectation of drastic dips in holiday spending, as is widely suggested. We’re willing to bet most of the 20 percent or so of your customers that generates 80 percent or so of your business didn’t see a large chunk of net worth suddenly disappear when the Dow dropped below 10,000. And while lending is an issue that touches everyone, credit card companies simply aren’t going to suddenly cut off qualified consumers or jack rates on them in such a competitive environment. Nobody, quite frankly, likes to turn away good business. The instability of global markets even produced an interesting upside that for some reason gets little attention from the keepers of the headlines. As the markets have dipped, surely you’ve notice, so have food and gas prices, and that may impact Christmas consumerism more than tanking stocks and tight credit, at least if we can believe the surveys taken when those prices were rising. There’s some evidence we should. This September, reports the U.S. Census, overall retail dollars were down 1.2 percent compared to September 2007. Food and beverage on its own, however, was up about 5 percent. Gasoline station sales were up 17 percent year over year, despite data suggesting people were cutting back on their driving. Consumers apparently were spending more for lots less. It seems safe to assume, as gas and food prices dip, much of the dollars saved once again become discretionary. Of course, consumer attitude about the economic conditions, or confidence, is a huge factor, as well, and falling prices at the pumps could have the same positive effect as rising prices appear to have had a negative effect. We’d also bet that as soon as the elections are over, we’ll be hearing a lot less from the talking heads about how terrible the economy is performing. So when it begins to look a lot like Christmas, don’t be surprised if it ends up looking a lot like the holiday seasons of the past few years, when a good amount of retailers were too short on inventory and staff to take advantage of the traffic. We’re not suggesting caution is not in order. Consumers and financial institutions have been irresponsible, no doubt, and some belt tightening appears inevitable. (The suggestion that purchasing is patriotic while prudence is bad for the nation’s economy simply is dangerous, but that’s a different discussion.) Perhaps it’s best to take the same advice level-headed investment planners are offering clients in these rocky financial times: There are two strikes, two outs, no runners on base and you’re down a few runs, so give up going for the home run, and maybe even choke up on the bat a little, but don’t just stand their taking pitches. If you do, there’s a good chance you’ll watch the third strike go right by. –MV Martin Vilaboy Editor-in-Chief martin@bekapublishing.com Percy Zamora Art Director outdoor@bekapublishing.com Ernest Shiwanov Editor at Large ernest@bekapublishing.com Editorial Contributors: R.J. Anderson Philip Josephson Berge Kaprelian Group Publisher berge@bekapublishing.com Jennifer Vilaboy Production Director jen@bekapublishing.com Suzanne Urash Ad Creative Designer suzanne@cre8groupinc.com Beka Publishing Berge Kaprelian President and CEO Philip Josephson General Counsel Jim Bankes Business Accounting Corporate Headquarters 745 N. Gilbert Road Suite 124, PMB 303 Gilbert, AZ 85234 Voice: 480.503.0770 Fax: 480.503.0990 Email: berge@bekapublishing.com © 2008 Beka Publishing, All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in any form or medium without express written permission of Beka Publishing, is prohibited. Inside Outdoor and the Inside Outdoor logo are trademarks of Beka Publishing 6 | <strong>InsideOutdoor</strong> | <strong>Fall</strong> 2008
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